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The Size and Sustainability of Nigerian Current Account Deficits
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ISBN: 1462374182 1451986440 1281430064 9786613780348 1451897022 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account and macroeconomic indicators to examine the size and sustainability of Nigerian current account deficits over the 1960-97 period. The results indicate that the Nigerian economy appeared to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint during this period. However there were years marked by excessive current account deficits. The results also support the view that current account deficits accompanied by macroeconomic instability and structural weaknesses can degenerate in to an external crisis.


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Capital Inflows and Balance of Payments Pressures : Tailoring Policy Responses in Emerging Market Economies
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1462393594 1455239550 145194599X Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges should be differentiated based on the source of balance of payments pressures. We also examine whether the policy choices in emerging market countries conform to the taxonomy's predictions and find some correspondence, especially during periods of high global liquidity.


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The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus
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ISBN: 1513520032 1513520024 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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China’s current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by economic rebalancing from investment to consumption, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) towards equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening up to ensure excessive surpluses do not return, and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances, but with different impact across countries. The analysis is based on data as of July 2019.


Book
Current Account Surpluses and the Interest Rate Island in Switzerland
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ISBN: 146236117X 145523835X 1281155624 9786613776983 1455225126 Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper describes some long-run aspects of the Swiss balance of payments, highlighting two macroeconomic phenomena that make Switzerland stand out among other countries: first, it has had a persistent current account surplus and the largest ratio of net foreign assets to GDP in the world; second, its real interest rates have been significantly lower than those of most other industrialized countries, earning it the label “interest rate island”. These two distinctive features may be related, and ultimately both may result from an excess of national savings over investment for many years. The real interest differential may largely be attributed to a foreign exchange rate risk premium, which compensates Swiss residents for holding net assets in foreign currency and foreign residents for bearing net liabilities in Swiss francs.


Book
Military Spending, the Peace Dividend, and Fiscal Adjustment
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462397387 1452767408 1281602728 1451897006 9786613783417 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The end of the Cold War has ushered in significant changes in worldwide military spending. This paper finds that the easing of (1) international tensions, (2) regional tensions, and (3) the existence of IMF-supported programs are related to lower military spending and a higher share of nonmilitary spending in total government outlays. These factors account for up to 66 percent, 26 percent, and 11 percent of the decline in military spending, respectively. Furthermore, fiscal adjustment has implied a larger cut in military spending of countries with IMF-supported programs.


Book
Trade Policy and Macroeconomic Balance in the World Economy.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462349943 1455296945 Year: 1988 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper explores the relationship between trade policy and current accounts. The effect on the current account of a change in protection at home and then abroad is analyzed, assuming that the exchange rate floats. The “savings-and-investment approach” is used. It shows that there is no presumption that protection would reduce a deficit. With a fixed exchange rate, the effect on savings and investment is brought about by the reduction in absorption that is required to maintain internal balance when restrictions are imposed. A current account deficit or real appreciation may generate protectionist pressures stimulated by “conservative resistance.”.


Book
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Middle East and Central Asia.
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ISBN: 1589066693 1462365345 1452753369 1451948360 9786613850683 1283538237 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The Middle East and Central Asia is undergoing a remarkable transformation driven by rapid GDP growth and high oil and non-oil commodity prices. The report presents common economic trends and reviews prospects and policies for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating both regional topics--such as growth in the Maghreb countries; developments in the oil markets; the boom in the GCC countries, and the impact of the recent global credit squeeze on the region--and country-specific reviews, of Kazakhstan, Armenia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the UAE.


Book
Long-Term Trends in the Saving-Investment Balance and Persistent Current Account Surpluses in a Small Open Economy : The Case of the Netherlands
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ISBN: 1462361145 1455240389 Year: 1996 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores, from an investment-saving perspective, the factors underlying the persistent widening of the current account surplus in the Netherlands since the early 1980s. Standard intertemporal models, even appropriately extended to incorporate specific features of the Dutch economy, do not appear to fully account for this development. Accordingly, the paper focusses attention on the production side of the economy to gain further insight into the trends of the current account. Empirical evidence suggests that changes in relative factor prices and a relative demand shift toward non-tradable goods account for the bulk of the observed widening of the current account surplus. In turn, the impact of these factors on the current account appears to reflect both changes in factor proportions and deviations from perfect competition in the Dutch sheltered sector.


Book
Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account
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ISBN: 1462336876 1455266647 Year: 1992 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment remains a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal optimizing model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on private savings behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditure, the greater is the precautionary demand for savings and, other things equal, the larger is the current account surplus. Empirical support for the model is found using quarterly data from four large industrial countries.


Book
The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle : A Firm-level Cross-country Perspective
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 146230527X 1455221570 128356386X 1455211583 9786613876317 145521082X Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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China’s high corporate savings rate is commonly claimed to be a key driver for the country’s large current account surplus. The mainstream explanation for high corporate savings is a combination of windfall profits in state-owned firms, especially in resource sectors, and mis-governance of state-owned firms represented by their low dividend payout. The paper casts doubt on these views by comparing the savings of 1557 Chinese listed firms with those of 29330 listed firms from 51 other countries over 2002-07. First, Chinese firms do not have a significantly higher savings rate (as a share of total assets) than the global average because corporations in most countries have a high savings rate. The rising corporate savings rate is also consistent with a global trend. Second, there is no significant difference in the savings behavior and dividend patterns between Chinese majority state-owned and private listed firms, contrary to the received wisdom.

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