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This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds that both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade and high interest rates in industrial countries, trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; indeed, current account imbalances are not sharply reduced in the years following a currency crisis. Economic performance around these events is also quite different. An exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversal events there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
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The banking crises in 2007-10 are not exceptional. There have been many such crises in the past in both developed countries and emerging economies. A banking crisis can be related to solvency or liquidity (or both). This book focuses on banking crisis and liquidity. This book starts from basics and gradually builds up with very few technicalities. Though the analysis is primarily theoretical, we provide a historical background, a macroeconomic perspective, and policy implications for both closed and open economies.
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eebo-0018
Currency crises --- Great Britain --- History
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eebo-0159
Currency crises --- Great Britain --- History
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Claims. --- Currency boards. --- Currency crises. --- Depreciation.
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Claims. --- Currency boards. --- Currency crises. --- Depreciation.
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Drawing on a mix of economic history, network science, and sociology, "Currency Wars" provides a rich understanding of the increasing threats to U.S. national security, from dollar devaluation to collapse in the European periphery, failed states in Africa, Chinese neomercantilism, Russian adventurism, and the current scramble for gold.
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