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May 2000 - A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war (putting ethnic minorities at risk), more social modernization, and more democracy. Modern political economy stresses society's polarization as a determinant of development outcomes. Among the most common forms of social conflict are class polarization and ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus is defined as a high share of income for the middle class and a low degree of ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus distinguishes development successes from failures. A theoretical model shows how groups- distinguished by class or ethnicity - will under-invest in human capital and infrastructure when there is leakage to another group. Easterly links the existence of a middle class consensus to exogenous country characteristics such as resource endowments, along the lines of the provocative thesis of Engerman and Sokoloff 1997 that tropical commodity exporters are more unequal than other societies. Easterly confirms this hypothesis with cross-country data. This makes it possible to use resource endowments as instruments for inequality. A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war (putting ethnic minorities at risk), more social modernization, and more democracy. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the determinants of growth. The author may be contacted at weasterly@worldbank.org.
Class Polarization --- Cross-Country Data --- Cross-Country Differences --- Cross-Country Income --- Development Outcomes --- Development Successes --- Economic Development --- Economic Growth --- Emerging Markets --- Exogenous Country Characteristics --- Human Capital --- Income --- Income Differences --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Middle Class --- Middle Class Consensus --- Political Community --- Political Economy --- Political Instability --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Resource Endowments --- Social Conflict
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Existing empirical studies on the relation between inequality and growth have been criticized for their focus on income inequality and their use of cross-country data sets. Schipper and Hoogeveen use two sets of small area welfare estimates-often referred to as poverty maps-to estimate a model of rural per capita expenditure growth for Uganda between 1992 and 1999. They estimate the growth effects of expenditure and education inequality while controlling for other factors, such as initial levels of expenditure and human capital, family characteristics, and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. The authors correct standard errors to reflect the uncertainty due to the fact that they use estimates rather than observations. They find that per capita expenditure growth in rural Uganda is affected positively by the level of education as well as by the degree of education inequality. Expenditure inequality does not have a significant impact on growth.
Cross-Country Data --- Data Sets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Growth --- Empirical Evidence --- Empirical Research --- Empirical Studies --- Equity and Development --- Growth Regression --- Growth Regressions --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human Capital --- Income --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Inequality Measure --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Policy Research --- Population Policies --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Incidence --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Regional Dummies --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Significant Effect --- Significant Impact
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Existing empirical studies on the relation between inequality and growth have been criticized for their focus on income inequality and their use of cross-country data sets. Schipper and Hoogeveen use two sets of small area welfare estimates-often referred to as poverty maps-to estimate a model of rural per capita expenditure growth for Uganda between 1992 and 1999. They estimate the growth effects of expenditure and education inequality while controlling for other factors, such as initial levels of expenditure and human capital, family characteristics, and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. The authors correct standard errors to reflect the uncertainty due to the fact that they use estimates rather than observations. They find that per capita expenditure growth in rural Uganda is affected positively by the level of education as well as by the degree of education inequality. Expenditure inequality does not have a significant impact on growth.
Cross-Country Data --- Data Sets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Growth --- Empirical Evidence --- Empirical Research --- Empirical Studies --- Equity and Development --- Growth Regression --- Growth Regressions --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human Capital --- Income --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Inequality Measure --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Policy Research --- Population Policies --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Incidence --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Regional Dummies --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Significant Effect --- Significant Impact
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In this paper, the authors examine the political economy drivers of the variation in agricultural protection, both across countries and within countries over time. The paper starts by listing the key insights provided by both the theoretical and empirical literature on the political economy of trade policy formulation. The authors then set out a basic framework that allows us to put forth various testable hypotheses on the variation and evolution of agricultural protection. The authors find that both the political ideology of the government and the degree of income inequality are important determinants of agricultural protection. Thus, both the political-support-function approach as well as the median-voter approach can be used in explaining the variation in agricultural protection across countries and within countries over time. The results are consistent with the predictions of a model that assumes that labor is specialized and sector-specific in nature. Some aspects of protection also seem to be consistent with predictions of a lobbying model in that agricultural protection is negatively related to agricultural employment and positively related to agricultural productivity. Public finance aspects of protection also seem to be empirically important.
Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agricultural Trade --- Agriculture --- Auctions --- Campaign Contributions --- Consumers --- Cross-Country Data --- Democracies --- Developed Countries --- Developing Countries --- Economic Development --- Economics --- Empirical Literature --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Gdp --- Globalization --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Legal System --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Political Economy --- Political Institutions --- Political Science --- Poverty and Trade --- Poverty Reduction --- Productivity --- Protectionism --- Public & Municipal Finance --- Public Finance --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade Protection --- Transparency --- Unemployment --- Wages --- World Development Indicators
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