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Although the theoretical relationships are ambiguous, evidence suggestsa strong link between the choice of the exchange rate regime and economicperformance. The paper argues that adopting a pegged exchange rate canlead to lower inflation, but also to slower growth in productivity. Itfinds that on average per capita GDP growth was slightly faster underfloating regimes than under pegged exchange regimes.

Economic growth --- International finance --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Prices

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The paper develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the trade-off between internal price stability and external competitiveness and allowing for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock-like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market-should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of 13 Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Bulgaria

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This paper examines whether decisions about the appropriate exchange rate regime in six Central American countries were based on longer-run economic fundamentals or on the confluence of historical and political circumstances. To uncover any actual relationship both across countries and across time, we estimate several probit and multinomial logit models of exchange rate regime choice with data spanning the period 1974-2001. We find that theoretical long-run determinants, such as trade openness, export share with the major trading partner, economic size, and per capita income, are adequate, but not robust, predictors of exchange rate regime choice. However, we were not able to establish a statistically significant association between the terms of trade fluctuations or capital account openness and a particular regime in any specification using our sample.

Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Crawling peg --- Conventional peg --- Floating exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- United States

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This paper addresses the issue of the appropriate exchange rate regimes for Jordan and Lebanon in the context of the literature on optimum currency areas and the arguments concerning the use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for the economy. It presents some empirical results on the nature of output shocks in Jordan and Lebanon in the recent past, on the price sensitivity of exports from Jordan, and on currency and asset substitution in both countries. It does not directly address the issue of whether the current exchange rate in either country is overvalued or not, nor does it discuss the issue of an appropriate exit strategy from the current peg.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exports --- Exchange rates --- International trade --- Jordan

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The paper examines the role of credibility in the conduct of exchange rate policy in developing countries, The analysis is based on a model in which policymakers are concerned about inflation and external competitiveness. Price setters in the nontraded goods sector of the economy adjust prices in reaction to anticipated fluctuations in the domestic price of tradable goods. This type of model is showm to generate a “devaluation bias” which undermines the credibility of a fixed exchange rate. The effect of reputational factors, signaling considerations, and joining a currency union as possible solutions to this bias is examined.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate policy --- Prices --- United Kingdom