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This paper examines the composition of primary commodity exports by industrial countries and contrasts this composition with that of the exports by developing countries. Both the share of industrial countries’ commodity exports in world commodity exports, as well as in their own total merchandize exports, is examined over time and across different commodities and geographical areas. The paper then specifies and empirically estimates an econometric model of the demand for and the supply of commodity exports by industrial countries. The model is estimated for five groups of industrial countries and the parameters of the model are compared with those available for the developing countries.

Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade and Environment --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Exports --- Commodities --- Metals --- Commodity trade --- Export prices --- International trade --- Prices --- Commodity prices --- Commercial products --- Balance of trade --- United States --- E-Commerce

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We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Commodities --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Commodity Markets --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Agriculture: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Commodities --- Trade barriers --- International trade --- Commodity trade --- Trade balance --- Agricultural commodities --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial products --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- Farm produce --- China, People's Republic of