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This paper estimates the impact of the 2008 food price spike and the 2009 contraction in global growth on undernourishment rates. The analysis is based on a methodology that uses a calorie-income relationship and income distribution data. The authors find that the 2008 global food price spike may have increased global undernourishment by about 6.8 percent, or 63 million people. Moreover, they show that the sharp slowdown in global growth in 2009 could have contributed to 41 million more undernourished people compared with what would have happened if the economic crisis had not occurred.

Agricultural economics --- Agricultural production --- Agriculture --- Cassava --- Cereal prices --- Demand for food --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Energy prices --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Food consumption --- Food insecurity --- Food policy --- Food prices --- Food production --- Food security --- Foods --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Maize --- Markets and Market Access --- Price increases --- Price index --- Private Sector Development --- Purchasing --- Regional Economic Development --- Rice --- Wheat

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World prices for staple foods increased between 2006 and 2008, and accelerated sharply in 2008. Initial analysis indicated that the adverse effects of higher food prices in Uganda were likely to be small because of the diversity of its staple foods, high level of food self-sufficiency, and weak links with world markets. This paper extends the previous analyses, disaggregating by regions and individual food items, using more recent price data, and estimating the impact on consumption poverty. The analysis finds that poor households in Uganda tend to be net buyers of food staples, and therefore suffer welfare losses when food prices increase. This is most pronounced in urban areas, but holds true for most rural households as well. The diversity of staple foods has not been an effective buffer because of price increases across a range of staple foods. The paper estimates that both the incidence and depth of poverty have increased - at least in the short run - as a result of higher food prices in 2008, increasing by 2.6 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. The increase in poverty is highest in the Northern region, which is already the poorest in Uganda. The need for mitigating social protection measures appears to be greater than previously recognized. Not only are the negative impacts larger, but they are also much more widespread geographically. This suggests the need for continued close monitoring of the situation, including monitoring the adequacy of existing safety nets and feeding programs.

Agriculture --- Bananas --- Cassava --- Cereal prices --- Cereals --- Cooking --- Food --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Food consumption --- Food consumption patterns --- Food crops --- Food markets --- Food needs --- Food prices --- Food production --- Food staples --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Maize --- Markets and Market Access --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rice --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Staple foods --- Sweet potatoes --- Wheat

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Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production, which is among the key determinants of inflation, assuming a decline in global commodity prices. Implementation of successful policies will be contingent on the availability of foreign exchange and the performance of agriculture.

Access to Markets --- Cereal price --- Cereal prices --- Commodity price --- Commodity prices --- Consumer price --- Consumer price index --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Demand --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Food and Beverage Industry --- Industry --- Inflation --- International Economics & Trade --- Investments --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets --- Markets and Market Access --- Money market --- Price increases --- Price inflation --- Price level --- Price trends --- Prices --- Private Sector Development --- Product --- Stock --- Supply --- Value