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Book
A Simple Method to Quantify the Ex-Ante Effects of "Deep" Trade Liberalization and "Hard" Trade Protection
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

This paper proposes a simple and flexible econometric approach to quantify ex-ante the "deep" impact of trade liberalization and the "hard" effects of protection with the empirical structural gravity model. Specifically, the paper argues that the difference between the estimates of border indicator variables for affected and non-affected countries can be used as a comprehensive measure of the change in bilateral trade costs in response to a hypothetical policy change. To demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods, the paper focus on the integration between the countries from the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (EU), which is an important policy application that has not been studied before due to lack of data. This analysis overcomes this challenge by utilizing a new dataset on trade and production that covers all EU countries and all CEFTA members (except for Kosovo). The partial equilibrium estimates that we obtain confirm the validity of our methods, while the corresponding general equilibrium effects point to significant and heterogeneous potential gains for the CEFTA countries from joining the EU. The proposed methods can also be extended to ex-post analysis and are readily applicable to other applications, for example, "hard" Brexit.


Book
Barriers to trade in services in the CEFTA region
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ISBN: 0821387995 9786613278951 1283278952 0821388363 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : World Bank,

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The Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) was concluded among the countries of Southeastern Europe with the aim to promote further trade integration. The agreement states the objective to 'expand trade in goods and services and foster investment by means of fair, clear, stable and predictable rules.' While recent literature on trade in the CEFTA region has focused on analyzing trade in goods, the purpose of the paper is to identify the remaining barriers to trade in services among the CEFTA countries. The paper presents: (i) the economic and trade importance of the service sector in CE


Book
Enhancing regional trade integration in Southeast Europe
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ISBN: 0821382594 9786612502200 0821382667 1282502204 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : World Bank,

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The Southeast Europe (SEE) region comprises a group of countries with a common objective, and prospect, to become members of the European Union (EU). To achieve the goal of EU membership, these countries have pursued closer integration with the EU as well as with each other. In December 2006, the SEE countries, and Moldova, signed the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), a comprehensive free trade agreement that aims to fully liberalize trade in the region as well as to achieve greater cooperation in a number of trade-related areas. This book is part of the World Bank's efforts to un


Book
Trade Liberalization Strategies : What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From Cefta and Bfta?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462310303 1452733880 1283561786 9786613874238 1451920393 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores the effectiveness of the Central European Free Trade Area (CEFTA) and the Baltic Free Trade Area (BFTA). Estimates from a gravity model and bilateral trade data support the view that both CEFTA and BFTA helped expand regional trade and limit the emergence of a "hub-and-spoke" relationship between the CEECs and the European Union (EU). These empirical conclusions carry some important policy implications for the "second wave" of prospective EU members among Southeastern European Countries (SEECs). The paper argues that the SEECs should reconsider their bilateral approach to trade liberalization and move towards a multilateral free-trade area as exemplified by both the CEFTA and BFTA.

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