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Este informe sintetiza el conocimiento sobre los efectos de los riesgos naturales en el bienestar humano, especialmente en sus aspectos economicos. Es una combinacion excelente de estudios de casos, datos en varias escalas y la aplicacion de los principios economicos a los problemas planteados por terremotos, fenomenos climaticos anormales y similares. Proporciona un conocimiento profundo sobre el papel relativo de los mercados, la intervencion gubernamental y las instituciones sociales en la determinacion y mejora tanto de la prevencion como de la respuesta a los acontecimientos daninos. This book is available directly from the publisher: Ediciones GONDO Maese Nicolas,9 45224 TOLEDO SPAIN Website: http://www.edicionesgondo.com.

Air Pollution --- Catastrophic Events --- Death Rate --- Disaster --- Spanish Translation

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This paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components - to four types of natural disasters - droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector auto-regressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross-country and time-series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger, for better or worse, on developing than on rich countries. Second, while the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when they are of moderate intensity, severe disasters never have positive effects. Third, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and, perhaps surprisingly, some can entail benefits regarding economic growth. Thus, droughts have a negative effect on both agricultural and non-agricultural growth. In contrast, floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in both major sectors. Earthquakes have a negative effect on agricultural growth but a positive one on non-agricultural growth. Storms tend to have a negative effect on gross domestic product growth but the effect is short-lived and small. Future research should concentrate on exploring the mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts.

Avalanches --- Catastrophic events --- Conflict and Development --- Disaster --- Disaster events --- Disaster Management --- Disaster reduction --- Disaster risk --- Disaster risk reduction --- Droughts --- Earthquake --- Earthquakes --- Environment --- Famines --- Floods --- Hazard Risk Management --- Natural Disaster --- Natural Disasters --- Natural hazards --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Reconstruction --- Storms --- Tsunamis --- Urban Development --- Volcano --- Wind storms

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Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, in conjunction with recently published scientific literature has led risk modelers to revisit their hurricane models and develop climate conditioned hurricane models. This paper discusses these climate conditioned hurricane models and compares their risk estimates to those of base normal hurricane models. This comparison shows that the recent 50 year period of climate change has potentially increased North Atlantic hurricane frequency by 30 percent. However, such an increase in hurricane frequency would result in an increase in risk to human property that is equivalent to less than 10 years' worth of US coastal property growth. Increases in potential extreme losses require the reinsurance industry to secure additional risk capital for these peak risks, resulting in the short term in lower risk capacity for developing countries. However, reinsurers and investors in catastrophe securities may still have a long-term interest in providing catastrophe coverage in middle and low-income countries as this allows reinsurers and investors to better diversify their catastrophe risk portfolios.

Catastrophic events --- Climate change --- Conflict and Development --- Debt Markets --- Development network --- Disaster --- Disaster Management --- Disaster reduction --- Disaster risk --- Disaster risk reduction --- Earthquake --- Earthquakes --- Environment --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Hazard Risk Management --- Hurricane --- Hurricanes --- Insurance and Risk Mitigation --- Insurance Law --- Insurers --- Law and Justice --- Natural Disasters --- Natural hazards --- Reconstruction --- Reinsurers --- Risk assessment --- Storm --- Storms --- Terrorists --- Urban Development