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“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Capital account --- Current account balance --- Current account --- Capital account balance --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Korea, Republic of

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The second Annual Report of the IEO summarizes the findings and recommendations of two completed evaluation projects: on the IMF’s experience with the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and the role of the IMF in Argentina, 1991-2001. It also discusses the status of ongoing evaluations, and identifies potential candidates for the menu from which future IEO work programs will be chosen.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Public Finance --- Social Services and Welfare --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Fiscal Policy --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Social welfare & social services --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Capital account crisis --- Poverty reduction strategy --- Fiscal policy --- Financial Sector Assessment Program --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- Poverty --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Capital account liberalization --- Financial services industry --- Argentina

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This paper examines issues in sequencing and pacing capital account liberalization and draws lessons from experience in four countries (Chile, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand). The paper focuses on the interrelationship between capital account liberalization, domestic financial sector reforms, and the design of monetary and exchange rate policy. It concludes that capital account liberalization should be approached as an integrated part of comprehensive reform strategies and should be paced with the implementation of appropriate macroeconomic and exchange rate policies.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Monetary Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Capital inflows --- Capital account liberalization --- Capital flows --- Exchange rates --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- Capital movements --- Thailand

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This paper reviews the issues involved in moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility and capital account liberalization in China. A more flexible exchange rate regime would allow China to operate a more independent monetary policy, providing a useful buffer against domestic and external shocks. At the same time, weaknesses in China’s financial system suggest that capital account liberalization poses significant risks and should be a lower priority in the short term. This paper concludes that greater exchange rate flexibility is in China’s own interest and that, along with a more stable and robust financial system, it should be regarded as a prerequisite for undertaking a substantial liberalization of the capital account.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Capital controls --- Capital account liberalization --- Capital account --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Balance of payments --- Capital movements --- China, People's Republic of

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We provide new firm-level evidence on the effects of capital account liberalization. Based on corporate foreign-currency credit ratings data and a novel capital account restrictions index, we find that capital controls can substantially limit access to, and raise the cost of, foreign currency debt, especially for firms without foreign currency revenues. As an identification strategy, we exploit, via a difference-in-difference approach, within-country variation in firms' access to foreign currency, measured by whether or not a firm belongs to the nontradables sector. Nontradables firms benefit substantially more from capital account liberalization than others, a finding that is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications.

Commerce --- Business & Economics --- Accounting --- Capital --- Credit ratings. --- Accounting. --- Commercial ratings --- Credit checks --- Credit guides --- Credit investigations --- Credit reports --- Ratings, Credit --- Capital investments --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Capital account --- Capital account liberalization --- Credit ratings --- Currencies --- Credit --- Balance of payments --- Money --- United States