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Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. Terence Mills introduces these various approaches to allow students and researchers to appreciate the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.

Business cycles --- Econometric models --- Business cycles - Econometric models. --- Business cycles -- Econometric models. --- Business cycles. --- Business. --- Econometric models. --- -338.54 --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial crises --- Business cycles - Econometric models

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This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on g

Business cycles -- Econometric models. --- Labor market -- Effect of automation on -- Econometric models. --- Natural disasters -- Econometric models.

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Business cycles --- Macroeconomics --- Econometric models --- AA / International- internationaal --- 331.05 --- 305.2 --- -Macroeconomics --- -339.015195 --- Economics --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial crises --- Econometrische analyse van de economische bewegingen en cycli. --- Statistieken van de conjunctuur. --- 339.015195 --- Statistieken van de conjunctuur --- Econometrische analyse van de economische bewegingen en cycli --- Business cycles - Econometric models --- Macroeconomics - Econometric models

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The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method freely estimates the contemporaneous correlation matrix for underlying shocks in the VAR and (uniquely, to our knowledge) the associated uncertainty. Our results suggest that the international business cycle is largely driven by U.S. financial shocks with a significant impact from global shocks, mainly reflecting commodity prices. Other advanced economic regions play a much smaller and regional role in growth spillovers. Our findings are consistent with the emerging evidence on the current crisis.

Business cycles--Econometric models. --- Business cycles--United States--Econometric models. --- United States. --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Externalities --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Commodity Markets --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic growth --- Spillovers --- Vector autoregression --- Structural vector autoregression --- Business cycles --- Commodity prices --- International finance --- Prices --- United States --- Econometric models.

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Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor market reforms accounts for the bulk of low-frequency variation in growth, but points to factor utilization as the main driver of business cycle fluctuations. In contrast with the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle models, a positive shock to the underlying rate of total factor productivity growth generates a slight decline in hours, whereas the response of output to the same shock is found to be positive.

Business cycles -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Gross domestic product -- Italy. --- Italy -- Economic conditions. --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labor Economics: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Total factor productivity --- Productivity --- Labor --- Business cycles --- Capacity utilization --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Industrial capacity --- Italy --- Gross domestic product --- Econometric models. --- Economic conditions. --- Income economics