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Bank Bailouts, Competition, and the Disparate Effects for Borrower and Depositor Welfare
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Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper investigates how government interventions into banking systems such as blanket guarantees, liquidity support, recapitalizations, and nationalizations affect banking competition. This debate is important because the pricing of banking products has implications for borrower and depositor welfare. Exploiting data for 124 countries that witnessed different policy responses to 41 banking crises, and using difference-in-difference estimations, the paper presents the following key results: (i) Government interventions reduce Lerner indices and net interest margins. This effect is robust to a battery of falsification and placebo tests, and the competitive response also cannot be explained by alternative forces. The competition-increasing effect on Lerner indices and net interest margins is also confirmed once the non-random assignment of interventions is accounted for using instrumental variable techniques that exploit exogenous variation in the electoral cycle and in the design of the regulatory architecture across countries. (ii) Consistent with theoretical predictions, the competition-increasing effect of government interventions is greater in more concentrated and less contestable banking sectors, but the effects are mitigated in more transparent banking systems. (iii) The competitive effects are economically substantial, remain in place for at least 5 years, and the interventions also coincide with an increase in zombie banks. The results therefore offer direct evidence of the mechanism by which government interventions contribute to banks' risk-shifting behavior as reported in recent studies on bank level runs via competition. (iv) Government interventions disparately affect bank customers' welfare. While liquidity support, recapitalizations, and nationalizations improve borrower welfare by reducing loan rates, deposit rates decline. The empirical setup allows quantifying these disparate effects.


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The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout : Evidence from an Emerging Market
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Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history, enacted by the government of India against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity, wages, or consumption, but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults. Post-program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program, an effect that is not driven by greater risk-taking of banks. Loan defaults become significantly more sensitive to the electoral cycle after the program, suggesting the anticipation of future credit market interventions as an important channel through which moral hazard in loan repayment is intensified.


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Identification strategy : a field experiment on dynamic incentives in rural credit markets
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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How do borrowers respond to improvements in a lender's ability to punish defaulters? This paper reports the results of a randomized field experiment in rural Malawi that examines the impact of fingerprinting borrowers in a context where a unique identification system is absent. Fingerprinting allows the lender to more effectively use dynamic repayment incentives: withholding future loans from past defaulters while rewarding good borrowers with better loan terms. Consistent with a simple model of borrower heterogeneity and information asymmetries, fingerprinting led to substantially higher repayment rates for borrowers with the highest ex ante default risk, but had no effect for the rest of the borrowers. The change in repayment rates is driven by reductions in adverse selection (smaller loan sizes) and lower moral hazard (for example, less diversion of loan-financed fertilizer from its intended use on the cash crop).


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Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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The paper discusses the main features that distinguish inter-firm international trade finance from alternative sources of financing. On the one hand, inter-firm trade finance could help overcome informational problems associated with other lending relationships; on the other, it may contribute to propagate shocks due to the interconnection among firms along credit chains. The paper evaluates the potential effects of a financial crisis on the use of trade credit for firms operating in developing countries. It argues that while the advantages of trade credit might remain largely unexploited due to poor legal institutions, the disadvantages might be exacerbated because of these firms' greater exposure to a default chain. Based on these arguments, a menu of choices is identified for what policymakers can do to boost firms' access to inter-firm trade finance in times of crisis.


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Trade Finance in A Liquidity Crisis
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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The paper discusses the reasons for supporting international trade finance during a liquidity crisis. Targeted interventions are justified when prices are rigid and sellers insist on immediate payment due to fears of strategic default. In this case, buyers who reject the seller's offer fail to internalize the seller's benefit from additional liquidity. A general infusion of credit will not facilitate the beneficial transaction, but an infusion targeted at the buyer's bank's trade finance supply will do so. Since there is a need for interventions in one country to benefit actors in another, international coordination is called for.


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The Typology of Partial Credit Guarantee Funds Around the World
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Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper presents data on 76 partial credit guarantee schemes across 46 developed and developing countries. Based on theory, the authors discuss different organizational features of credit guarantee schemes and their variation across countries. They focus on the respective role of government and the private sector and different pricing and risk reduction tools and how they are correlated across countries. The findings show that government has an important role to play in funding and management, but less so in risk assessment and recovery. There is a surprisingly low use of risk-based pricing and limited use of risk management mechanisms.


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The Economic Impact of Banking the Unbanked : Evidence From Mexico
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper examines the effects of providing financial services to low-income individuals on entrepreneurial activity, employment, and income. The analysis exploits cross-time and cross-municipality variation in the opening of Banco Azteca in Mexico to measure these effects with a difference-in-difference strategy. Banco Azteca opened more than 800 branches simultaneously in 2002, focusing on low-income clients. The results show that the opening of Banco Azteca led to an increase in the number of informal business owners by 7.6 percent. Total employment also increased, by 1.4 percent, and average income went up by about 7 percent.


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Liability structure in small-scale finance : evidence from a natural experimen
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Microfinance, the provision of small individual and business loans, has witnessed dramatic growth, reaching over 150 million borrowers worldwide. Much of its success has been attributed to overcoming the challenges of information asymmetries in uncollateralized lending. Yet, very little is known about the optimal contract structure of such loans - there is substantial variation across lenders, even within a particular setting. This paper exploits a plausibly exogenous change in the liability structure offered by a microfinance program in India, which shifted from individual to group liability lending. The analysis finds compelling evidence that contract structure matters: for the same borrower, required monthly loan installments are 6 percent less likely to be missed under the group liability setting, relative to individual liability. In addition, compulsory savings deposits are 19 percent less likely to be missed under group liability contracts.


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Quantitative Risk Assessment in Life, Health and Pension Insurance
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Year: 2022 Publisher: Basel MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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The high volatility in financial markets, together with the ultra-low interest rate environment and increased life expectancy, constitute serious threats for providers of long-term investment guarantees and lifelong benefits. Even if the COVID-19 pandemic is currently causing a mortality shock, its influence on future mortality is not clear and one possible scenario could be a further increase in the life expectancy of survivors. The risk involved with all of these “exogenous” factors is amplified by the uncertainty characterizing individuals’ behavior when making decisions concerning, e.g., surrender, partial withdrawals, annuitization, etc. This special issue aims at contributing to the study of suitable solutions allowing to build resilience against various risks that impact on life, health and pension insurance portfolios. In particular, it collects five high-quality research papers analysing theoretical or practical aspects related to the following topics: Design of new pension insurance products and risk-management of loan insurance; Assessing capital requirements for demographic risk in a life insurance portfolio – Stochastic models and numerical techniques; Analysis and risk-management of the long-run impact of COVID-19 on the life insurance business.


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Interlinkage, Limited Liability, and Strategic Interaction
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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June 1999 - When will a landlord prefer to supply both land and credit to a tenant rather than allow the lender to borrow from a separate moneylender? The paper shows that if tenancy contracts are obtained prior to contracting with the moneylender, and the tenant has limited liability, interlinked deals will predominate over the alternative situation where the landlord and the moneylender act as noncooperative principals. Basu, Bell, and Bose analyze the example of a landlord, a moneylender, and a tenant (the landlord having access to finance on the same terms as the moneylender). It is natural to assume that the landlord has first claim on the tenant's output (as a rule, if they live in the same village, he may have some say in when the crop is harvested). The moneylender is more of an outsider, not well placed to exercise such a claim. A landless, assetless tenant will typically not get a loan unless he has a tenancy. Without interlinkage, the landlord is likely to move first. In the noncooperative sequential game where the landlord is the first mover and also enjoys seniority of claims if the tenant defaults, interlinkage is superior, even if contracts are nonlinear - a result unchanged with the incorporation of moral hazard. The main result is that if a passive principal - one whose decisions are limited to exercising his property rights to determine his share of returns - is the first mover, allocative efficiency is impaired unless his equilibrium payoffs are uniform across states of nature. The limited liability of the tenant creates the strict superiority of interlinkage by making uniform rents nonoptimal when, with noncollusive principals, the landlord (the passive principal) is the first mover. A change in seniority of claims from the first to the second mover (the moneylender) further strengthens this result. But uniform payoffs for the first mover are not essential for allocative efficiency if he is the only principal with a continuously variable instrument of control. So, the main result is sensitive to changes in the order of play but not to changes in the priority of claims. This paper - a product of the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics - is part of a larger effort in the Bank to understand the institutional structure of rural markets and its welfare implications. The authors may be contacted at kbasu@worldbank.org, clive.bell@urz.uni-heidelberg.de, or psbose@cc.memphis.edu.

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