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Deteriorating public finances around the world raise doubts about countries' abilities to bail out their largest banks. For an international sample of banks, this paper investigates the impact of government indebtedness and deficits on bank stock prices and credit default swap spreads. Overall, bank stock prices reflect a negative capitalization of government debt and they respond negatively to deficits. The authors present evidence that in 2008 systemically large banks saw a reduction in their market valuation in countries running large fiscal deficits. Furthermore, the change in bank credit default swap spreads in 2008 relative to 2007 reflects countries' deterioration of public deficits. The results of the analysis suggest that some systemically important banks can increase their value by downsizing or splitting up, as they have become too big to save, potentially reversing the trend to ever larger banks. The paper also documents that a smaller proportion of banks are systemically important - relative to gross domestic product - in 2008 than in the two previous years, which could reflect private incentives to downsize.

Access to Finance --- Bank failures --- Bank mergers --- Bank risk --- Bank size --- Banking crises --- Banking system --- Banking systems --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capitalization --- CDS --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Deficits --- Deposit insurance --- Economic Theory & Research --- European central bank --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial safety nets --- Fiscal deficits --- Government finance --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Profitability --- Small banks --- Taxation

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Stress tests are the main practical tools of macroprudential oversight. This paper reviews the stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and South Eastern Europe (CSEECBs) and outlines the challenges in the area of stress testing going forward. The authors discuss good practice and the applied approaches by CSEECBs focusing on the main components of a typical macroprudential stress test, id est constructing the baseline and stress scenarios, mapping macroeconomic scenarios and microeconomic factors to risk factors, calculating risk exposures to different risk indicators, and estimating outcome indicators to inform macroprudential policy. The main challenges for the CSEECBs going forward involve needed improvements in data reliability, consideration of quantitative microprudential indicators in macroprudential stress tests, explicit incorporation of dynamics in stress tests to include reaction functions of banks and macroprudential policy, institutionalization of macroprudential policy responses to alarming stress-test results, use of the top-down and bottom-up stress test results in supervisory communication, cooperation of macroprudential and microprudential supervision, and information exchange for better cross-border supervision of international banking groups.

Accounting --- Bank of Canada --- Banking sector --- Banking systems --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capital adequacy --- Central banks --- Credit risk --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Data reliability --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial data --- Financial institutions --- Financial Intermediation --- Financial stability --- Financial systems --- International banking --- Macroeconomic conditions --- Market risk --- Operational risk --- Private Sector Development --- Risk factors --- Supervisory authorities --- Technical assistance

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Stress tests are the main practical tools of macroprudential oversight. This paper reviews the stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and South Eastern Europe (CSEECBs) and outlines the challenges in the area of stress testing going forward. The authors discuss good practice and the applied approaches by CSEECBs focusing on the main components of a typical macroprudential stress test, id est constructing the baseline and stress scenarios, mapping macroeconomic scenarios and microeconomic factors to risk factors, calculating risk exposures to different risk indicators, and estimating outcome indicators to inform macroprudential policy. The main challenges for the CSEECBs going forward involve needed improvements in data reliability, consideration of quantitative microprudential indicators in macroprudential stress tests, explicit incorporation of dynamics in stress tests to include reaction functions of banks and macroprudential policy, institutionalization of macroprudential policy responses to alarming stress-test results, use of the top-down and bottom-up stress test results in supervisory communication, cooperation of macroprudential and microprudential supervision, and information exchange for better cross-border supervision of international banking groups.

Accounting --- Bank of Canada --- Banking sector --- Banking systems --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capital adequacy --- Central banks --- Credit risk --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Data reliability --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial data --- Financial institutions --- Financial Intermediation --- Financial stability --- Financial systems --- International banking --- Macroeconomic conditions --- Market risk --- Operational risk --- Private Sector Development --- Risk factors --- Supervisory authorities --- Technical assistance

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In spite of shallow financial markets, Sub-Saharan Africa will not escape the repercussions of the global financial crisis. The global turmoil threatens the progress Sub-Saharan Africa has made in financial sector deepening and broadening over the recent years and underlines the importance of continuing and deepening the necessary institutional reforms. In this context it is important to define the role of government in expanding financial sectors in a sustainable and market-friendly manner. Foreign banks have brought more benefits than risks for their host economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, but are certainly not a panacea and not a substitute for institutional and policy reform. The profile of foreign banks, however, has changed, with more and more regional banks emerging. This trend toward regional integration is promising as it might allow the small African financial system to reap benefits from scale economies, but it also requires regulatory and supervisory improvements and coordination across the region.

Access to Finance --- Banking systems --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Capital flows --- Country comparisons --- Debt Markets --- Deposits --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial deepening --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Financial systems --- Foreign banks --- Interest rates --- International banks --- Overhead costs --- Private Sector Development --- Privatization --- Productivity --- Regional banks --- Resource allocation --- Savings --- Savings accounts --- Savings banks --- Subsidiaries

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April 2000 - Empirical results highlight the downside of imposing certain regulatory restrictions on commercial bank activities. Regulations that restrict banks' ability to engage in securities activities and to own nonfinancial firms are closely associated with more instability in the banking sector. And keeping commercial banks from engaging in investment banking, insurance, and real estate activities does not appear to produce positive benefits. Barth, Caprio, and Levine report cross-country data on commercial bank regulation and ownership in more than 60 countries. They evaluate the links between different regulatory/ownership practices in those countries and both financial sector performance and banking system stability. They document substantial variation in response to these questions: Should it be public policy to limit the powers of commercial banks to engage in securities, insurance, and real estate activities? Should the mixing of banking and commerce be restricted by regulating commercial bank's ownership of nonfinancial firms and nonfinancial firms' ownership of commercial banks? Should states own commercial banks, or should those banks be privatized? They find: There is no reliable statistical relationship between restrictions on commercial banks' ability to engage in securities, insurance, and real estate transactions and a) how well-developed the banking sector is, b) how well-developed securities markets and nonbank financial intermediaries are, or c) the degree of industrial competition. Based on the evidence, it is difficult to argue confidently that restricting commercial banking activities benefits - or harms - the development of financial and securities markets or industrial competition; There are no positive effects from mixing banking and commerce; Countries that more tightly restrict and regulate the securities activities of commercial banks are substantially more likely to suffer a major banking crisis. Countries whose national regulations inhibit banks' ability to engage in securities underwriting, brokering, and dealing - and all aspects of the mutual fund business - tend to have more fragile financial systems; The mixing of banking and commerce is associated with less financial stability. The evidence does not support admonitions to restrict the mixing of banking and commerce because mixing them will increase financial fragility; On average, greater state ownership of banks tends to be associated with more poorly developed banks, nonbanks, and stock markets and more poorly functioning financial systems. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to examine the effects of financial sector regulation. The authors may be contacted at jbarth@business.auburn.edu, gcaprio@worldbank.org, or rlevine@csom.umn.edu

Bank --- Banking --- Banking Crises --- Banking Reform --- Banking Sector --- Banking Sector Development --- Banking System --- Banking Systems --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Commercial Banks --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Finance --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crises --- Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring --- Financial Intermediation --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Stability --- Financial Systems --- Governments --- Industry --- Insurance --- Investment Banking --- Markets --- Private Sector Development --- Projects --- Public Policy