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This paper estimates the effects of peer benchmarking by institutional investors on asset prices. To identify trades purely due to peer benchmarking as separate from those based on fundamentals or private information, the paper exploits a natural experiment involving a change in a government imposed underperformance penalty applicable to Colombian pension funds. This change in regulation is orthogonal to stock fundamentals and only affects incentives to track peer portfolios allowing the authors to identify the component of demand due to peer benchmarking. The authors find that peer effects among pension fund managers generate excess in stock return volatility, with stocks exhibiting short-term abnormal returns followed by returns reversal in the subsequent quarter. Additionally, peer benchmarking produces an excess in comovement across stock returns beyond the correlation implied by fundamentals.

Asset Prices --- Comovement --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Herding --- Institutional Investors --- Markets & Market Access --- Mutual Funds

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Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.

Petroleum products --- Prices --- Forecasting. --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Refining --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Commodity Markets --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Asset prices --- Oil --- Commodity prices --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States

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This paper uses a partial equilibrium framework to compare the welfare consequences of different methods of quota administration relative to free trade under imperfect competition. It shows that a country importing a good from foreign duopolists may improve its welfare by setting a quota at the free trade quantity and giving a fraction of the quota licenses to the duopolists while auctioning off the rest.

Asset prices --- Commercial policy --- Deflation --- Exports and Imports --- Import licensing --- Import quotas --- Imports --- Inflation --- International economics --- International Trade Organizations --- International trade --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Prices --- Trade barriers --- Trade liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade: General --- United States

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This paper documents the extent of financial linkages between Canada and the United States and explores the impact of changes in U.S. financial conditions on financial conditions and real economic activity in Canada. It shows that close to a quarter of financing by Canadian corporations is raised south of the border. Empirical analysis using structural vector autoregressions establishes that a tightening in U.S. financial conditions has significant implications for real activity in Canada. For example, a percentage point increase in the 3- month T-bill rate, other things being equal, leads to a decline of slightly more than one percentage point in Canada's real GDP growth after 3 quarters. That decline can be decomposed into three channels: the direct financial channel, where the slowdown is attributed to a rising cost of funds for Canadian companies raising capital in the United States; the indirect financial channel, where growth is hampered as financial conditions in Canada tighten in response to a tightening in the United States; and the trade channel, which goes through a slowing in the U.S. economy, and correspondently lower demand for Canadian exports. As would be expected from the high degree of reliance on U.S. financing, the direct financial channel proves dominant in the short term.

Canada --- United States --- Foreign economic relations --- Economic conditions --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Production growth --- Exchange rates --- Asset prices --- Oil prices --- Production --- Economic theory

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There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of jump-diffusion models that are successful in approximating the term structure of interest rates of emerging markets. The parameters of the term structure of interest rates are reconciled with the associated bond yields by estimating the volatility and jump risk premia in highly volatile markets. Using the simulated method of moments (SMM), results suggest that all variants of models which do not take into account stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps cannot generate the non-normalities consistent with the observed interest rates. Jumps occur (8,10) times a year in Argentina and Brazil, respectively. The size and variance of these jumps is also of statistical significance.

Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Finance --- Yield curve --- Short term interest rates --- Interest rate modelling --- Asset prices --- Market interest rates --- Interest rates --- Prices --- Argentina --- Risk --- Jump processes --- Bonds --- Econometric models.