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Financial econometrics has developed into a very fruitful and vibrant research area in the last two decades. The availability of good data promotes research in this area, specially aided by online data and high-frequency data. These two characteristics of financial data also create challenges for researchers that are different from classical macro-econometric and micro-econometric problems. This Special Issue is dedicated to research topics that are relevant for analyzing financial data. We have gathered six articles under this theme.
tuning parameter choice --- Markov process --- model averaging --- n/a --- steady state distributions --- realized volatility --- threshold --- risk prices --- threshold auto-regression --- bond risk premia --- linear programming estimator --- volatility forecasting --- Bayesian inference --- asset price bubbles --- stationarity --- deviance information criterion --- model selection --- probability integral transform --- forecast comparisons --- Markov-Chain Monte Carlo --- explosive regimes --- multivariate nonlinear time series --- Tukey’s power transformation --- affine term structure models --- Mallows criterion --- nonlinear nonnegative autoregression --- TVAR models --- stochastic conditional duration --- shrinkage --- Tukey's power transformation
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The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.
Asset Price --- Balance Sheets --- Bank Policy --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Boom-Bust Cycle --- Capital Account --- Capital Flows --- Capital Inflows --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Economies --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Liberalization --- Interest --- International Capital --- International Capital Markets --- International Economics & Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomic Volatility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Moral Hazard --- Private Sector Development --- Real Exchange Rate --- Short-Term Capital
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The author evaluates the effectiveness of policy measures adopted by Chile and Colombia, aiming to mitigate the deleterious effects of pro-cyclical capital flows. In the case of Chile, according to his Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, capital controls succeeded in reducing net short-term capital flows but did not affect long-term flows. As far as Colombia is concerned, the regulations were capable of affecting total flows and also long-term ones. In addition, the co-integration models indicate that the regulations did not have a direct effect on the real exchange rate in the Chilean case. Nonetheless, the model used for Colombia did detect a direct impact of the capital controls on the real exchange rate. Therefore, the results do not seem to support the idea that those regulations were easily evaded.
Asset Price --- Balance Sheets --- Bank Policy --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Boom-Bust Cycle --- Capital Account --- Capital Flows --- Capital Inflows --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Economies --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Liberalization --- Interest --- International Capital --- International Capital Markets --- International Economics & Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomic Volatility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy --- Moral Hazard --- Private Sector Development --- Real Exchange Rate --- Short-Term Capital
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In the past two decades, cross-border portfolio holdings of a large variety of assets have risen sharply. This has created an important role for changes in asset prices of a country's external assets and liabilities (i.e. "valuation effects") in affecting the country's net foreign asset position. Valuation effects are commonly thought as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset position. This paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of underlying productivity shocks. In response to transitory shocks, valuation effects are stabilizing; but in response to trend shocks, such effects amplify the impact of the current account on the net foreign asset position. These contrasting results arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income. The results are consistent with the pattern of external imbalances between the United States and other G.7 countries since the 1990s.
Asset position --- Asset price --- Asset prices --- Balance of payments --- Bond --- Bonds --- Capital gains --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Current account deficit --- Current account deficits --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Exchange rate --- External assets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- International bank --- Labor Policies --- Liabilities --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Portfolio --- Portfolio choice --- Portfolio holdings --- Private Sector Development --- Shock to income --- Social Protections and Labor --- Stocks --- Valuation
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"Inflation, in which all prices and wages in an economy rise, is mysterious. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, and the price of oil goes up, the mechanism is no great mystery-supply and demand often work pretty visibly. But if you ask the grocer why the price of bread is higher, he or she will blame the wholesaler, who will blame the baker, who will blame the wheat supplier, and so on. Perhaps the ultimate cause is a government printing more money, but there is really no way to know this for certain but to sit down in an office with statistics, armed with some decent economic theory. But current economic theory doesn't really explain why we haven't seen inflation for so long, and more and more economists think that current theory doesn't hold together, or provide much guidance for how central banks should behave if inflation does break out. Many also worry that central banks have much less power over the economy than they think they do, and much less understanding of the mechanism behind what power they do have. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is a comprehensive new approach to monetary policy. Economist John Cochrane argues that money has value because the government accepts it for tax payments. This insight, he argues, leads to a deep re-reading of monetary policy and institutions. Inflation comes when a government is unable to repay its debts, rather than from mismanagement of the split of debt between money and bonds. In the book, he will analyze institutional design, historical episodes, and compare fiscal theory to the Keynesian and new-Keynesian theory based on interest rate targets, and to monetarism. The book offers an overview and introduction to the range of contemporary monetary economics and history of thought as well as the fiscal theory"--
Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy. --- Prices. --- BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics. --- Accounting rate of return. --- Asset price inflation. --- Bond Yield. --- Central bank. --- Consumer debt. --- Consumer economy. --- Consumption (economics). --- Credit (finance). --- Credit risk. --- Credit spread (options). --- Currency crisis. --- Currency swap. --- Currency union. --- Currency. --- Debt limit. --- Debt-to-GDP ratio. --- Debt. --- Default (finance). --- Diversification (finance). --- Econometrics. --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economic planning. --- Economics. --- Exchange rate. --- Finance. --- Financial correlation. --- Financial economics. --- Fiscal adjustment. --- Fiscal gap. --- Fiscal multiplier. --- Fiscal policy. --- Fiscal space. --- Fiscal theory of the price level. --- Fixed exchange-rate system. --- Functional finance. --- GDP deflator. --- GDP-linked bond. --- Government budget balance. --- Government debt. --- Inflation swap. --- Inflation targeting. --- Inflation tax. --- Inflation. --- Interest Cost. --- Interest rate risk. --- Interest rate. --- Keynesian economics. --- Liability (financial accounting). --- Liquidity premium. --- Macroeconomic model. --- Macroeconomics. --- Marginal rate of substitution. --- Mark-to-market accounting. --- Market Risk Premium. --- Market clearing. --- Market liquidity. --- Market price. --- Microeconomic reform. --- Modern Monetary Theory. --- Monetarism. --- Monetary Theory. --- Monetary authority. --- Monetary reform. --- Monetary system. --- Money market. --- Money multiplier. --- Nominal interest rate. --- Price Change. --- Price controls. --- Price elasticity of demand. --- Price fixing. --- Price index. --- Price level. --- Public finance. --- Quantity theory of money. --- Real business-cycle theory. --- Real interest rate. --- Real versus nominal value (economics). --- Relative value (economics). --- Risk premium. --- Share price. --- Stochastic discount factor. --- Stock valuation. --- Supply (economics). --- Supply-side economics. --- Swap (finance). --- Tax and spend. --- Tax avoidance. --- Tax policy. --- Tax reform. --- Tax. --- Terminal value (finance). --- The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. --- The Wealth Effect. --- Tight Monetary Policy. --- Trade credit. --- Treasury Bill. --- Valuation (finance). --- Value (economics). --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Prices --- Monetary policy
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