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Book
Revisiting the Effect of Food Aid on Conflict : A Methodological Caution
Authors: ---
Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

A popular identification strategy in non-experimental panel data uses instrumental variables constructed by interacting exogenous but potentially spurious time series or spatial variables with endogenous exposure variables to generate identifying variation through assumptions like those of differences-in-differences estimators. Revisiting a celebrated study linking food aid and conflict shows that this strategy is susceptible to bias arising from spurious trends. Re-randomization and Monte Carlo simulations show that the strategy identifies a spurious relationship even when the true effect could be non-causal or causal in the opposite direction, invalidating the claim that aid causes conflict and providing a caution for similar strategies.


Book
Famine and the Aid Response : Evidence from the Announcement of Famine-Like Conditions in the Republic of Yemen
Authors: ---
Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Using a high-frequency mobile phone survey of food security conducted by the World Food Programme, this paper investigates how food assistance and access to food changed following the announcement of famine-like conditions in the Republic of Yemen. Among the mobile phone-using population, the share of households receiving food assistance more than doubled following the announcement. The increases were largely targeted at regions identified in the announcement as being closer to famine in the original announcement, and there was improvement in access to food in regions that received the most food assistance relative to the rest of the country. Although the survey misses struggling households that do not have access to a mobile phone and are potentially more at risk of famine, the results raise questions about the need for better quality data in food emergencies that are updated more regularly for better targeting of food assistance.

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