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Sudanese inflation dramatically fell in 2000. But just prior to the sharp decline, an export ban was placed on Sudanese livestock. Motivated by this clue, and in the absence of any reliable income or employment data, this paper systematically develops simultaneous models of the consumer price index (CPI) and the exchange rate to assess the economic impact of the export ban. It finds that livestock exports play a large economic role as an important source of income and as a store of value. In the long run, livestock exports are positively associated with nonfood inflation. In the short run, food price movements are negatively associated with livestock exports: to help smooth income, lower food prices generate increased livestock exports. Therefore, unable to export livestock, farmers may have flooded the local market with meat, lowering food prices. Moreover, the loss of income and the decline in wealth lowered aggregate demand, leading to the decline in nonfood prices.

Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Agriculture: General --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment & securities --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Agricultural commodities --- Exchange rates --- Export earnings --- Food prices --- Commodities --- Consumption --- National accounts --- International trade --- Farm produce --- Exports --- Economics --- Sudan

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This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase in the cost of food for many net-food- importing countries, although the increase is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalize.

Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: General --- Commodity Markets --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Price incentives --- Tariffs --- Imports --- Agricultural commodities --- Commodities --- Prices --- Taxes --- International trade --- Tariff --- Farm produce --- Commercial products --- United States

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How should resource-rich economies handle the balance of payments adjustment required after commodity price declines? This paper addresses the question theoretically by developing a simple two-period multi-sector model based on Nakatani (2016) to compare different exchange rate policies, and empirically by estimating elasticities of imports and commodity exports with respect to exchange rates using Papua New Guinean data. In the empirical part, using various econometric methods, I find the statistically significant elasticities of commodity exports to real exchange rates. In the theoretical part, by introducing the notion of a shadow exchange rate premium, I show how the rationing of foreign exchange reduces consumer welfare. Using the estimated elasticities and theoretical outcomes, I further discuss policy implications for resource-rich countries with a focus on Papua New Guinea.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exports --- Commodity price shocks --- International trade --- Prices --- Papua New Guinea

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This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.

Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Commodity Markets --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Terms of trade --- Exports --- Commodities --- Commodity prices --- Import prices --- International trade --- Prices --- Imports --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Commercial products --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the

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We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.

China, People's Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Commodities --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Commodity Markets --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Agriculture: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Commodities --- Trade barriers --- International trade --- Commodity trade --- Trade balance --- Agricultural commodities --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial products --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade --- Farm produce