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Using a stochastic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper studies a policy rule for the retirement age aiming at offsetting the effects on the supply of labor following fertility changes. The authors find that the retirement age should increase more than proportionally to the direct fall in labor supply caused by a fall in fertility. The robustness of this result is checked against alternative model specifications and parameter values. The efficacy of the policy rule depends crucially on the link between the preference for leisure and the response of the intensive margin of labor supply to changes in the statutory retirement age. The model has subsequently been calibrated for Brazil by Jorgensen (2010), in the context of the Brazil Aging Study.
Aggregate Income --- Business cycle --- Contribution rate --- Downward pressure --- Early retirement --- Economic Theory & Research --- Exogenous shock --- Exogenous variable --- General equilibrium --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human capital --- Labor economics --- Labor force --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Labor supply --- Labour --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market equilibrium --- Payroll tax --- Pensions & Retirement Systems --- Population Policies --- Real wages --- Retirement --- Social Protections and Labor --- Wage rate --- Worker --- Workers
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This paper evaluates the degree of consumption insurance enjoyed by Latin American and Caribbean countries, with respect to various reference areas, by estimating a parameter expressing the sensitivity of a country's consumption growth to a measure of idiosyncratic shocks to income. The paper surveys common econometric implementations of "consumption insurance tests." The author proposes some econometric procedures in order to detect the actual presence of international risk sharing, as well as to assess the relative impact of idiosyncratic versus aggregate shocks. The evidence suggests that Latin American and Caribbean economies have been hit by non-diversifiable income shocks, that idiosyncratic risk is relatively more important than aggregate risk, and that some countries in the region appear to enjoy a certain amount of international risk diversification. The paper also identifies some macroeconomic factors that may be responsible for a higher or lower degree of risk pooling (such as international openness, financial depth, and credit availability). The findings show that the financial development of an economy is a crucial factor in determining the amount of risk sharing opportunities, as well as public expenditure. The preliminary results also suggest that trade openness and shocks to terms of trade play an important role in determining the degree of insurability of such risks.
Aggregate consumption --- Aggregate income --- Consumption --- Consumption growth --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Domestic consumption --- Economic Theory and Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Intermediation --- Growth rates --- Income growth --- Inequality --- Levels of investments --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- National income --- Poverty Reduction --- Public expenditure --- Trade openness
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Using a stochastic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper studies a policy rule for the retirement age aiming at offsetting the effects on the supply of labor following fertility changes. The authors find that the retirement age should increase more than proportionally to the direct fall in labor supply caused by a fall in fertility. The robustness of this result is checked against alternative model specifications and parameter values. The efficacy of the policy rule depends crucially on the link between the preference for leisure and the response of the intensive margin of labor supply to changes in the statutory retirement age. The model has subsequently been calibrated for Brazil by Jorgensen (2010), in the context of the Brazil Aging Study.
Aggregate Income --- Business cycle --- Contribution rate --- Downward pressure --- Early retirement --- Economic Theory & Research --- Exogenous shock --- Exogenous variable --- General equilibrium --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human capital --- Labor economics --- Labor force --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Labor supply --- Labour --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market equilibrium --- Payroll tax --- Pensions & Retirement Systems --- Population Policies --- Real wages --- Retirement --- Social Protections and Labor --- Wage rate --- Worker --- Workers
Choose an application
This paper evaluates the degree of consumption insurance enjoyed by Latin American and Caribbean countries, with respect to various reference areas, by estimating a parameter expressing the sensitivity of a country's consumption growth to a measure of idiosyncratic shocks to income. The paper surveys common econometric implementations of "consumption insurance tests." The author proposes some econometric procedures in order to detect the actual presence of international risk sharing, as well as to assess the relative impact of idiosyncratic versus aggregate shocks. The evidence suggests that Latin American and Caribbean economies have been hit by non-diversifiable income shocks, that idiosyncratic risk is relatively more important than aggregate risk, and that some countries in the region appear to enjoy a certain amount of international risk diversification. The paper also identifies some macroeconomic factors that may be responsible for a higher or lower degree of risk pooling (such as international openness, financial depth, and credit availability). The findings show that the financial development of an economy is a crucial factor in determining the amount of risk sharing opportunities, as well as public expenditure. The preliminary results also suggest that trade openness and shocks to terms of trade play an important role in determining the degree of insurability of such risks.
Aggregate consumption --- Aggregate income --- Consumption --- Consumption growth --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Domestic consumption --- Economic Theory and Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Intermediation --- Growth rates --- Income growth --- Inequality --- Levels of investments --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- National income --- Poverty Reduction --- Public expenditure --- Trade openness
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