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A firm theoretical basis for the empirical relationship between dependency rates and savings behavior in developing countries is still lacking. Two demographic extensions of the representative household’s stochastic dynamic optimization problem are presented here. It is shown that the relationship between expected dependency rates and consumption growth depends on two parameters: the demographically varying committed consumption and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Thus, the expected path of demographic variables can provide information on the consumers’ willingness to smooth consumption, and on the savings responsiveness to changes in the real interest rate.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Consumption --- Demographic Economics: General --- Demography --- Economics --- Income --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- National accounts --- Population & demography --- Population and demographics --- Population --- Private consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- South Africa
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We evaluate the impact of fiscal reforms on growth and inequality in Cambodia using a calibrated general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents (Peralta-Alva et al., 2018). Over the last two decades, Cambodia’s consumption inequality and poverty have declined. However, income inequality is higher, and large gaps remain between urban and rural residents. At the same time, domestic revenue mobilization has improved substantially, but collection of tax revenue is biased towards non-progressive sources. We use the model to evaluate the growth and inequality impact of reforms that increase infrastructure spending by raising (i) VAT, (ii) property tax, or (iii) personal income tax. We find that using property taxes delivers the largest increase in GDP and reduction in inequality. Reaping the gains from property taxation will however require additional investments in tax administration.
Cambodia --- Economic conditions. --- Macroeconomics --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Income --- Personal income --- Consumption --- Income inequality --- Income distribution --- National accounts --- Economics
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Indirect taxes are an important element in stabilization tax packages that aim at raising revenue in the short run. This paper evaluates, by using a general equilibrium model, alternative instruments of indirect taxation in middle-income developing countries. It uses data for Thailand as an illustration and examines the effects on revenue, efficiency, equity, and international competitiveness. The paper shows that the interaction between taxes and distortions caused by various policies can be important for revenue and efficiency. It also reveals significant backward shifting and a link between outward-looking supply-side tax policies and trade policies in industrial countries.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Consumption --- Economics --- Income --- International Trade Organizations --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- National accounts --- Public finance & taxation --- Saving --- Spendings tax --- Tariff --- Taxation --- Taxes --- Trade Policy --- Wealth --- Thailand
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This paper examines trends in income distribution in Brazil and the determinants of income inequality, including social expenditure. While recent data reveal reduced income inequality since the Real Plan of July 1994, the distribution of income is still among the most unequal in the world. Among the most important determinants of income inequality in Brazil is extreme disparity in educational attainment levels. Public expenditures on education, health, and social insurance have tended to exacerbate income inequality. A number of options for improving the equity and efficiency of Brazilian social expenditure merit further examination.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Education: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Education --- Income --- Income inequality --- Expenditure --- Income distribution --- National accounts --- Expenditures, Public --- Brazil
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This paper examines the effects of inflation and associated financial instability on income distribution. Using both pooled cross country and single country time series models, the level of inflation, inflation variability, and the variability of the nominal exchange rate are shown to impact negatively on overall income equality. Looking at disaggregate measures of income distribution, the issue as to whether inflation is a progressive or regressive tax is found to be negatively correlated with the level of development and the sophistication of the financial structure. The paper argues that these results point towards financial variables as a partial way of rectifying the generally poor explanatory power of both cross-country and time series models of income distribution.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Income distribution --- Personal income --- Consumer price indexes --- Purchasing power parity --- National accounts --- Prices --- Income --- Price indexes --- United States
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A method of testing the relative importance for consumption of risk sharing behavior and changes in current income is proposed and estimated using data across Canadian provinces. The focus of the estimation is less on whether or not the risk sharing model can be rejected than on how much each of these hypotheses can contribute to explaining overall variation in consumption. Both types of behavior are found to be statistically significant, but the risk sharing model is found to explain considerably more of the growth in consumption than does changes in income.
Macroeconomics --- Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Consumption --- Income --- Personal income --- Disposable income --- Government consumption --- National accounts --- Economics --- National income --- Canada
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The paper focuses on distributional consequences of macroeconomic adjustment. The preferences of economic agents over the level of the real exchange rate derived from standard models are monotonic, with agents favoring either an infinitely appreciated or depreciated rate. To generate less extreme preferences, a model is presented where appreciation would depress economic activity, while a large depreciation would hit the tradable sector by limiting the availability of labor, offsetting the favorable price effect. The model is in the spirit of the dependent economy model, but built on explicit microfoundations. The results can be used to analyze political economy aspects of macroeconomic adjustment.
Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Political Economy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Political economy --- Real exchange rates --- Wages --- Income --- Labor economics --- Economics --- Income economics
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This paper studies the main determinants of the sharp decline in Colombia’s private saving rate which accompanied the steep deterioration of the country’s external current account deficit in the 1990s. The paper rejects current arguments pointing to a consumption boom and corporate behavior as the main causes of the decline. It concludes that: private consumption, explained mainly by permanent income, has only increased moderately in the 1990s; household behavior—not corporate behavior—determines private saving; and tax increases do not entirely explain the fall of private saving. Thus, reliance on external saving could be reduced by increasing public saving.
Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Private savings --- Consumption --- Income --- Private consumption --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- Economics --- Colombia
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The vertiginous increases in the overall price level and dramatic swings in relative prices experienced by Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan since the onset of the transition rendered their traditional Paasche retail price indices obsolete and called for the introduction of Laspeyres consumer price indices. While the latter represent a major improvement, several measurement or interpretation issues remain, reflecting various potential index number biases, dispersion of prices and inflation across geographical areas and social groups, discontinuities in the inflation process, residual shortages, and seasonality.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Prices --- Other Production and Pricing Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Consumer price indexes --- Price indexes --- Consumption --- Income --- Prices --- National accounts --- Economics --- Kazakhstan, Republic of
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This paper reviews the literature on factors which affect saving and capital formation in industrialized countries. Problems of measurement are briefly examined. Evidence of the effect on the rate of saving of real rates of return, income redistribution, allocation of saving between corporations and individuals, growth of public and private pension plans, tax incentives, and many other factors ranging from the bequest motive to energy prices and inflation, is considered. Given this evidence, the limited tools available to policymakers to affect savings are discussed. Finally, the extent to which recent tax reforms in a number of countries appear to have been affected by the desire to increase saving is reviewed.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Consumption --- Economics --- Income economics --- Income --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- National accounts --- Personal income --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Private savings --- Saving and investment --- Saving --- Wealth --- United States
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