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Adverse selection (Insurance) --- Health insurance --- Econometric models.
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We describe research on the impact of health insurance on healthcare spending ("moral hazard"), and use this context to illustrate the value of and important complementarities between different empirical approaches. One common approach is to emphasize a credible research design; we review results from two randomized experiments, as well as some quasi-experimental studies. This work has produced compelling evidence that moral hazard in health insurance exists - that is, individuals, on average, consume less healthcare when they are required to pay more for it out of pocket - as well as qualitative evidence about its nature. These studies alone, however, provide little guidance for forecasting healthcare spending under contracts not directly observed in the data. Therefore, a second and complementary approach is to develop an economic model that can be used out of sample. We note that modeling choices can be consequential: different economic models may fit the reduced form but deliver different counterfactual predictions. An additional role of the more descriptive analyses is therefore to provide guidance regarding model choice.
Risk (Insurance) --- Health insurance. --- Adverse selection (Insurance)
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Health plans paid by capitation have an incentive to distort the quality of services they offer to attract profitable and to deter unprofitable enrollees. We characterize plans' rationing as imposing a show that the profit maximizing shadow price depends on the dispersion in health costs, how well individuals forecast their health costs, the correlation between use in different illness categories, and the risk adjustment system used for payment. We further show how these factors can be combined in an empirically implementable index that can be used to identify the services that will be most distorted in competition among managed care plans. A simple welfare measure is developed to quantify the distortion caused by selection incentives. We illustrate the application of our ideas with a Medicaid data set, and conduct policy analyses of risk adjustment and other options for dealing with adverse selection.
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This report examines possible outcomes of greater competition in insurance markets. The report describes the nature of insurance offerings in equilibrium if firms offer multiple policies; but it replaces the conventional assumption that each policy must earn nonnegative profits with the more realistic requirement that the portfolio of policies offered by the firm earn nonnegative profits in the aggregate. Theorems regarding the existence, optimality, and uniqueness of the subsidy equilibrium are presented, together with a simple characterization of the subsidy equilibrium and a comparison with existing equilibrium notions. Because the subsidy patterns, from low to high, that emerge under this formulation appear to characterize multiple-option insurance plans such as the Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan, this model may be more useful than conventional methods in the analysis of such plans.
Insurance --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Adverse selection (Insurance) --- Mathematical models.
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Adverse selection (Insurance) --- Health insurance --- Risk (Insurance) --- Risk (insurance) --- Business & economics
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There may be a price to pay (in terms of inefficient coverage) if competition among health insurers is encouraged as a way to give patients greater choice and to achieve better control over insurance providers.
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A successful business deal maximizes value for all parties. Drawing on diverse case studies and decades of experience, Michael Klausner and Guhan Subramanian show how contracting parties can reach that goal through rigorous attention to incentives, information asymmetries, exit terms, moral hazard, and opportunism.
Negotiation in business. --- adverse selection. --- agreement. --- asset specificity. --- buy-sell. --- company. --- costs. --- drag. --- earnout. --- exchange. --- first refusal. --- good faith. --- governance. --- investment. --- match right. --- offer. --- put-call. --- relationship. --- tag along. --- termination. --- venture.
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This paper explores the evolution of OECD imports over time and as a function of income levels, measuring the concentration of those imports across origin countries at the product level. The authors find evidence of diversification followed, in the last years of the sample period (post-2000), by a slight re-concentration. This re-concentration is entirely explained by the growing importance of Chinese products in OECD imports. They also find evidence of relatively more volatile concentration levels for differentiated goods, consistent with a simple model of adverse selection and screening of suppliers by OECD buyers. Finally, they find that "accession" to OECD markets occurs directly (rather than after acquiring prior export experience on other markets) for more than half of the (extra-OECD) exporter/product pairs, but that one to eight years of experience enhances subsequent survival on OECD markets. Exports that reach OECD markets after more than eight years of experience elsewhere tend to survive less.
Adverse selection --- Barriers to entry --- Contestability --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging markets --- Export growth --- Exports --- Externalities --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Income --- Income levels --- International Trade --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Entry --- Market share --- Markets and Market Access --- Microfinance --- Monopoly --- Monopoly price --- Product quality --- Social Protections and Labor --- Substitution --- Supplier --- Suppliers --- Supply chains --- Volatility
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