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When Starting with the Most Expensive Option Makes Sense : Use and Misuse of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
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Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This article investigates the use of expert-based Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) to design abatement strategies. It shows that introducing inertia, in the form of the "cost in time" of available options, changes significantly the message from MACCs. With an abatement objective in cumulative emissions (e.g., emitting less than 200 GtCO2 in the 2000-2050 period), it makes sense to implement some of the more expensive options before the potential of the cheapest ones has been exhausted. With abatement targets expressed in terms of emissions at one point in time (e.g., reducing emissions by 20 percent in 2020), it can even be preferable to start with the implementation of the most expensive options if their potential is high and their inertia significant. Also, the best strategy to reach a short-term target is different depending on whether this target is the ultimate objective or there is a longer-term target. The best way to achieve Europe's goal of 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2020 is different if this objective is the ultimate objective or if it is only a milestone in a trajectory toward a 75 percent reduction in 2050. The cheapest options may be sufficient to reach the 2020 target but could create a carbon-intensive lock-in and preclude deeper emission reductions by 2050. These results show that in a world without perfect foresight and perfect credibility of the long-term carbon-price signal, a unique carbon price in all sectors is not the most efficient approach. Sectoral objectives, such as Europe's 20 percent renewable energy target in Europe, fuel-economy standards in the auto industry, or changes in urban planning, building norms and infrastructure design are a critical part of an efficient mitigation policy.


Book
When Starting with the Most Expensive Option Makes Sense : Use and Misuse of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
Authors: ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

This article investigates the use of expert-based Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) to design abatement strategies. It shows that introducing inertia, in the form of the "cost in time" of available options, changes significantly the message from MACCs. With an abatement objective in cumulative emissions (e.g., emitting less than 200 GtCO2 in the 2000-2050 period), it makes sense to implement some of the more expensive options before the potential of the cheapest ones has been exhausted. With abatement targets expressed in terms of emissions at one point in time (e.g., reducing emissions by 20 percent in 2020), it can even be preferable to start with the implementation of the most expensive options if their potential is high and their inertia significant. Also, the best strategy to reach a short-term target is different depending on whether this target is the ultimate objective or there is a longer-term target. The best way to achieve Europe's goal of 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2020 is different if this objective is the ultimate objective or if it is only a milestone in a trajectory toward a 75 percent reduction in 2050. The cheapest options may be sufficient to reach the 2020 target but could create a carbon-intensive lock-in and preclude deeper emission reductions by 2050. These results show that in a world without perfect foresight and perfect credibility of the long-term carbon-price signal, a unique carbon price in all sectors is not the most efficient approach. Sectoral objectives, such as Europe's 20 percent renewable energy target in Europe, fuel-economy standards in the auto industry, or changes in urban planning, building norms and infrastructure design are a critical part of an efficient mitigation policy.


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Long-Term Mitigation Strategies and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves : A Case Study on Brazil
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Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. This paper investigates the ability of marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves to inform this decision, reanalysing a MAC curve developed by the World Bank on Brazil. Misinterpreting MAC curves and focusing on short-term targets (e.g., for 2020) would lead to under-invest in expensive, long-to-implement and large-potential options, such as clean transportation infrastructure. Meeting short-term targets with marginal energy-efficiency improvements would lead to carbon-intensive lock-ins that make longer-term targets (e.g., for 2030 and beyond) impossible or too expensive to reach. Improvements to existing MAC curves are proposed, based on (1) enhanced data collection and reporting; (2) a simple optimization tool that accounts for constraints on implementation speeds; and (3) new graphical representations of MAC curves. Designing climate mitigation policies can be done through a pragmatic combination of two approaches. The synergy approach is based on MAC curves to identify the cheapest mitigation options and maximize co-benefits. The urgency approach considers the long-term objective (e.g., halving emissions by 2050) and works backward to identify actions that need to be implemented early, such as public support to clean infrastructure and zero-carbon technologies.


Book
Do We Need A Zero Pure Time Preference Or the Risk of Climate Catastrophes To Justify A 2C Global Warming Target ?
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper confronts the wide political support for the 2C objective of global increase in temperature, reaffirmed in Copenhagen, with the consistent set of hypotheses on which it relies. It explains why neither an almost zero pure time preference nor concerns about catastrophic damages in case of uncontrolled global warming are prerequisites for policy decisions preserving the possibility of meeting a 2C target. It rests on an optimal stochastic control model balancing the costs and benefits of climate policies resolved sequentially in order to account for the arrival of new information (the RESPONSE model). This model describes the optimal abatement pathways for 2,304 worldviews, combining hypotheses about growth rates, baseline emissions, abatement costs, pure time preference, damages, and climate sensitivity. It shows that 26 percent of the worldviews selecting the 2C target are not characterized by one of the extreme assumptions about pure time preference or climate change damages.


Book
Do Intensity Targets Control Uncertainty Better Than Quotas ? : Conditions, Calibrations, And Caveats
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Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Among policy instruments to control future greenhouse gas emissions, well-calibrated general intensity targets are known to lead to lower uncertainty on the amount of abatement than emissions quotas (Jotzo and Pezzey 2004). The authors test whether this result holds in a broader framework, and whether it applies to other policy-relevant variables as well. To do so, they provide a general representation of the uncertainty on future GDP, future business-as-usual emissions, and future abatement costs. The authors derive the variances of four variables, namely (effective) emissions, abatement effort, marginal abatement costs, and total abatement costs over GDP under a quota, a linear (LIT) and a general intensity target (GIT)-where the emissions ceiling is a power-law function of GDP. They confirm that GITs can yield a lower variance than a quota for marginal costs, but find that this is not true for total costs over GDP. Using economic and emissions scenarios and forecast errors of past projections, the authors estimate ranges of values for key parameters in their model. They find that quotas dominate LITs over most of this range, that calibrating GITs over this wide range is difficult, and that GITs would yield only modest reductions in uncertainty relative to quotas.


Book
Do Intensity Targets Control Uncertainty Better Than Quotas ? : Conditions, Calibrations, And Caveats
Authors: ---
Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

Among policy instruments to control future greenhouse gas emissions, well-calibrated general intensity targets are known to lead to lower uncertainty on the amount of abatement than emissions quotas (Jotzo and Pezzey 2004). The authors test whether this result holds in a broader framework, and whether it applies to other policy-relevant variables as well. To do so, they provide a general representation of the uncertainty on future GDP, future business-as-usual emissions, and future abatement costs. The authors derive the variances of four variables, namely (effective) emissions, abatement effort, marginal abatement costs, and total abatement costs over GDP under a quota, a linear (LIT) and a general intensity target (GIT)-where the emissions ceiling is a power-law function of GDP. They confirm that GITs can yield a lower variance than a quota for marginal costs, but find that this is not true for total costs over GDP. Using economic and emissions scenarios and forecast errors of past projections, the authors estimate ranges of values for key parameters in their model. They find that quotas dominate LITs over most of this range, that calibrating GITs over this wide range is difficult, and that GITs would yield only modest reductions in uncertainty relative to quotas.


Book
Quantification and Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Livestock Production Systems
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Ruminants contribute significantly to human food security. However, the production of ruminants contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are responsible for climate change. GHGs such as methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide are produced from different processes of ruminant production. Ruminant enteric methane is a substantial component of methane produced by agriculture. This book presents novel and established methods in quantifying and reducing enteric methane emission from ruminants in different production systems. The book covers different types of ruminants including cattle, sheep, and goats. The chapters are contributed by scientists and authors from different parts of the world, demonstrating the importance of this problem and the universal drive for immediate and sustainable solutions. Although, biologically speaking, the production of enteric methane cannot be reduced to zero, high emissions are an indicator of inefficient digestion of feed in the rumen and low utilisation of feed energy. By presenting research that could lead to robust and yet practical quantification methods and mitigation strategies, this book not only contributes to the discourse and new knowledge on the magnitude of the problem but also brings forward potential solutions in different livestock production systems.


Book
Quantification and Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Livestock Production Systems
Authors: ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Basel, Switzerland MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Abstract

Ruminants contribute significantly to human food security. However, the production of ruminants contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are responsible for climate change. GHGs such as methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide are produced from different processes of ruminant production. Ruminant enteric methane is a substantial component of methane produced by agriculture. This book presents novel and established methods in quantifying and reducing enteric methane emission from ruminants in different production systems. The book covers different types of ruminants including cattle, sheep, and goats. The chapters are contributed by scientists and authors from different parts of the world, demonstrating the importance of this problem and the universal drive for immediate and sustainable solutions. Although, biologically speaking, the production of enteric methane cannot be reduced to zero, high emissions are an indicator of inefficient digestion of feed in the rumen and low utilisation of feed energy. By presenting research that could lead to robust and yet practical quantification methods and mitigation strategies, this book not only contributes to the discourse and new knowledge on the magnitude of the problem but also brings forward potential solutions in different livestock production systems.

Keywords

Research & information: general --- Biology, life sciences --- Technology, engineering, agriculture --- environmental modelling --- pasture systems --- nitrous oxide --- methane emissions --- nitrate leaching --- climate change --- heat stress --- goat --- immunization --- methane --- volatile fatty acids --- backgrounded cattle --- encapsulated nitrate --- essential oil --- nitrogen balance --- reduction strategy --- rumen fermentation --- microbial flora --- tea saponins --- Moringa oleifera --- fecal methanogenic community --- dairy cows --- mcrA gene sequencing technique --- methane emission --- tropical beef cattle --- Desmanthus --- supplementation --- growth performance --- ruminant nutrition --- legumes --- NDIR --- laser --- agreement --- enteric emissions --- interchangeability --- heifer --- forage-to-concentrate ratio --- prediction equation --- sulphur hexafluoride tracer technique --- genetic evaluation --- greenhouse gases --- environment --- dairy goat farming --- linear programming --- GHG emissions --- abatement cost --- mitigation options --- carbon footprint --- environmental modelling --- pasture systems --- nitrous oxide --- methane emissions --- nitrate leaching --- climate change --- heat stress --- goat --- immunization --- methane --- volatile fatty acids --- backgrounded cattle --- encapsulated nitrate --- essential oil --- nitrogen balance --- reduction strategy --- rumen fermentation --- microbial flora --- tea saponins --- Moringa oleifera --- fecal methanogenic community --- dairy cows --- mcrA gene sequencing technique --- methane emission --- tropical beef cattle --- Desmanthus --- supplementation --- growth performance --- ruminant nutrition --- legumes --- NDIR --- laser --- agreement --- enteric emissions --- interchangeability --- heifer --- forage-to-concentrate ratio --- prediction equation --- sulphur hexafluoride tracer technique --- genetic evaluation --- greenhouse gases --- environment --- dairy goat farming --- linear programming --- GHG emissions --- abatement cost --- mitigation options --- carbon footprint


Book
Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation
Authors: ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Basel MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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The Paris Agreement establishes a process to combine Nationally Determined Contributions with the long-term goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or even to 1.5 °C. Responding to this challenge, EU and non-EU countries are preparing national and regional low-emission strategies outlining clean energy-transition pathways. The aim of this book is to provide rigorous quantitative assessment of the challenges, impacts and opportunities induced by ambitious low-emission pathways. It aims to explore how deep emission reductions can be achieved in all energy supply and demand sectors, exploring the interplay between mitigation options, including energy efficiency, renewable energy uptake and electrification, for decarbonising inflexible end-uses such as mobility and heating. The high expansion of renewable energy poses high technical and economic challenges regarding system configuration and market organisation, requiring the development of new options such as batteries, prosumers, grid expansion, chemical storage through power-to-X and new tariff setting methods. The uptake of disruptive mitigation options (hydrogen, CCUS, clean e-fuels) as well as carbon dioxide removal (BECCS, direct air capture, etc.) may also be required in the case of net-zero emission targets, but raises market, regulatory and financial challenges. This book assesses low-emission strategies at the national and global level and their implications for energy-system development, technology uptake, energy-system costs and the socioeconomic and industrial impacts of low-emission transitions.


Book
Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation
Authors: ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Basel MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

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Abstract

The Paris Agreement establishes a process to combine Nationally Determined Contributions with the long-term goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or even to 1.5 °C. Responding to this challenge, EU and non-EU countries are preparing national and regional low-emission strategies outlining clean energy-transition pathways. The aim of this book is to provide rigorous quantitative assessment of the challenges, impacts and opportunities induced by ambitious low-emission pathways. It aims to explore how deep emission reductions can be achieved in all energy supply and demand sectors, exploring the interplay between mitigation options, including energy efficiency, renewable energy uptake and electrification, for decarbonising inflexible end-uses such as mobility and heating. The high expansion of renewable energy poses high technical and economic challenges regarding system configuration and market organisation, requiring the development of new options such as batteries, prosumers, grid expansion, chemical storage through power-to-X and new tariff setting methods. The uptake of disruptive mitigation options (hydrogen, CCUS, clean e-fuels) as well as carbon dioxide removal (BECCS, direct air capture, etc.) may also be required in the case of net-zero emission targets, but raises market, regulatory and financial challenges. This book assesses low-emission strategies at the national and global level and their implications for energy-system development, technology uptake, energy-system costs and the socioeconomic and industrial impacts of low-emission transitions.

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