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Using monthly panel data we solve and estimate, using maximum likelihood techniques, an explicitly dynamic model of criminal behavior where current criminal activity adversely affects future employment outcomes. This acts as 'dynamic deterrence' to crime: the threat of future adverse effects on employment payoffs when caught committing crimes reduces the incentive to commit them. We show that this dynamic deterrence effect is strong in the data. Hence, policies which weaken dynamic deterrence will be less effective in fighting crime. This suggests that prevention is more powerful than redemption since the latter weakens dynamic deterrence as anticipated future redemption allows criminals to look forward to negating the consequences of their crimes. Static models of criminal behavior neglect this and hence sole reliance on them can result in misleading policy analysis.
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This paper presents evidence on the relation among incarceration, crime, and the economic incentives to crime, ranging from unemployment to income inequality. It makes three points: 1) The U.S. has incarcerated an extraordinarily high proportion of men of working age overall, and among blacks. In 1993 the number incarcerated was 1.9 percent of the male work force; among blacks, the number incarcerated was 8.8 percent of the work force. 2) The rising trend in incarceration should have reduced the rate of crime, through the incapacitation of criminals and through the deterrent effect of potential arrest and imprisonment. But administrative records show no such drop in crime and the victims survey shows a fall far below what could be expected on the basis of incapacitation by itself. 3) The implication is that there was an increased propensity to commit crime among the non-institutional population. The paper focuses attention on the possibility that the continued high rate of crime in the U.S., despite massive imprisonment of criminals may be one of the costs of the rising inequality in the country, and in particular of the falling real earnings of the less educated. While we lack a 'smoking gun' for such a relation, the preponderance of evidence suggests that economic incentives have played a role in the increased propensity to commit crime.
Time-series analysis. --- Crime --- Unemployment and crime. --- Economic aspects.
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Criminal justice --- Unemployment and crime --- Unemployment and crime. --- -343.973 <44> --- Crime and unemployment --- Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit--Frankrijk --- 343.973 <44> Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit--Frankrijk --- 343.973 <44> --- Crime --- Unemployment --- Social change --- Criminalité --- Justice pénale --- Chômage --- Changement social --- Economic aspects --- Aspect économique --- Unemployment and crime - France.
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Sociology of environment --- Social problems --- Juvenile delinquency --- Unemployment and crime --- Youth --- Délinquance juvénile --- Chômage et criminalité --- Jeunesse --- Bibliography --- Employment --- Bibliographie --- Travail --- Bibliography. --- -Unemployment and crime --- -Youth --- -Young people --- Young persons --- Youngsters --- Youths --- Age groups --- Life cycle, Human --- Crime and unemployment --- Crime --- Delinquency, Juvenile --- Juvenile crime --- Conduct disorders in children --- Juvenile corrections --- Reformatories --- -Juvenile delinquency --- -Bibliography --- -Sociology of environment --- Délinquance juvénile --- Chômage et criminalité --- Young people --- Employment&delete& --- European communities --- Youth - Employment - European Economic Community countries - Bibliography. --- Juvenile delinquency - European Economic Community countries - Bibliography. --- Unemployment and crime - European Economic Community countries - Bibliography.
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Criminology. Victimology --- Corrections --- Criminals --- Unemployment and crime --- Services correctionnels --- Réhabilitation --- Chômage et criminalité --- Rehabilitation --- Occupational training --- 343.973 --- -Occupational training --- -Unemployment and crime --- -Crime and unemployment --- Crime --- Job training --- Manpower development and training --- Manpower training programs --- Vocational training --- Education --- Training --- Education and training services industry --- Practice firms --- Crime and criminals --- Delinquents --- Offenders --- Persons --- Criminal justice, Administration of --- Criminology --- Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit --- -Criminals --- -Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit --- 343.973 Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit --- -343.973 --- -343.973 Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit --- Crime and unemployment --- -Corrections --- Réhabilitation --- Chômage et criminalité --- Criminals - Rehabilitation - Great Britain. --- Occupational training - Great Britain. --- Unemployment and crime - Great Britain.
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Crime --- Criminal justice, Administration of --- Business cycles --- Unemployment and crime --- Criminalité --- Cycles économiques --- Chômage et criminalité --- Economic aspects --- Aspect économique --- 343.973 --- Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit --- 343.973 Economische omstandigheden en criminaliteit. Armoede en criminaliteit --- Criminalité --- Cycles économiques --- Chômage et criminalité --- Aspect économique --- Business cycles.
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