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Book
Employment, Dynamic Deterrence and Crime
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Using monthly panel data we solve and estimate, using maximum likelihood techniques, an explicitly dynamic model of criminal behavior where current criminal activity adversely affects future employment outcomes. This acts as 'dynamic deterrence' to crime: the threat of future adverse effects on employment payoffs when caught committing crimes reduces the incentive to commit them. We show that this dynamic deterrence effect is strong in the data. Hence, policies which weaken dynamic deterrence will be less effective in fighting crime. This suggests that prevention is more powerful than redemption since the latter weakens dynamic deterrence as anticipated future redemption allows criminals to look forward to negating the consequences of their crimes. Static models of criminal behavior neglect this and hence sole reliance on them can result in misleading policy analysis.


Book
Crime and the Job Market
Authors: ---
Year: 1994 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper presents evidence on the relation among incarceration, crime, and the economic incentives to crime, ranging from unemployment to income inequality. It makes three points: 1) The U.S. has incarcerated an extraordinarily high proportion of men of working age overall, and among blacks. In 1993 the number incarcerated was 1.9 percent of the male work force; among blacks, the number incarcerated was 8.8 percent of the work force. 2) The rising trend in incarceration should have reduced the rate of crime, through the incapacitation of criminals and through the deterrent effect of potential arrest and imprisonment. But administrative records show no such drop in crime and the victims survey shows a fall far below what could be expected on the basis of incapacitation by itself. 3) The implication is that there was an increased propensity to commit crime among the non-institutional population. The paper focuses attention on the possibility that the continued high rate of crime in the U.S., despite massive imprisonment of criminals may be one of the costs of the rising inequality in the country, and in particular of the falling real earnings of the less educated. While we lack a 'smoking gun' for such a relation, the preponderance of evidence suggests that economic incentives have played a role in the increased propensity to commit crime.


Book
Unemployment, crime, and offenders
Author:
Year: 1989 Publisher: London New York Routledge

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Book
Changements économiques et répression pénale, plus de chômage, plus d'emprisonnement?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 2907370227 9782907370226 Year: 1991 Volume: 55 Publisher: Paris: CESDIP,


Book
Chômage des jeunes, délinquance et environnement urbain: recherche bibliographique
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9282579417 9789282579411 Year: 1988 Volume: vol *13 Publisher: Luxembourg: Office des publications officielles des Communautés européennes,


Book
Unemployment, crime and offenders
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 041501834X 9780415018340 Year: 1989 Publisher: London: Routledge,


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