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Demography --- -Macroeconomic policy --- -Economic aspects -

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European Central Bank --- European Central Bank. --- Macroeconomic policy --- Macroeconomic policy --- Monetary policy --- Monetary policy --- Electronic information resources. --- Electronic information resources --- Electronic information resources

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Financial crises --- Unemployment --- -Economic policy --- Macroeconomic policy --- Effect of inflation on

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Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy continues to struggle. regain pre-crisis growth rates, developing countries must once again emphasize internal productivity-enhancing policies. While headwinds from restructuring and fiscal consolidation will persist in high-income countries, these should become less intense allowing for a slow acceleration in growth over the next several years. Fragile rebound after mid-year turmoil ... Financial markets conditions have improved markedly since mid 2012 due to national and EU-wide measures to improve fiscal sustainability, and the augmentation of measures that the European Central Bank (ECB) would take in defense of the euro, but so far the so far economic growth has not rebounded as sharply partly because of policy induced uncertainty, which has contributed to keep business-sector confidence low._x000D_ While growth showed signs of accelerating in Q3 of 2012, including in major middle-income countries such as Brazil and China, uncertainties being generated by the US election and fiscal cliff concerns, coupled with tensions between China and Japan over competing land claims cut into Q4 growth in high-income and developing countries. Prospects for a modest acceleration in the medium term ... Overall, the global economic environment remains fragile and prone to further disappointment, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. Global growth is expected to come in at a relatively weak 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively, and gradually strengthen to 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent in 2014 and 2015. At an estimated 5.1 percent, GDP growth in developing countries during 2012 was among the slowest in 10 years. Improved financial conditions, a relaxation of monetary policy and somewhat stronger high-income country growth is projected to gradually raise developing-country growth to 5.5 percent in 2013, 5.7 percent in 2014 and 5.8 percent in 2015 - roughly in line with these countries' underlying potential. For high-income countries, fiscal consolidation, high unemployment and very weak consumer and business confidence will continue to weigh on activity in 2013, when GDP is projected once again to expand a mediocre 1.3 percent. Growth should, however, begin firming during the course of 2013, and expand by 2 percent in 2014 and 2.3 percent in 2015. In the Euro Area, growth is now projected to only return to positive territory in 2014, with GDP expected to contract by 0.1 percent in 2013, before edging up to 0.9 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015. Risks to the global outlook remain familiar, and include the possibility of a worsening of conditions in the Euro Area, persistent fiscal uncertainty in the United States, a disruption to oil or food commodity supply and the possibility of an abrupt slowing of investment growth in China. While the risks are similar, as compared with a year ago the likelihood that they are realized has diminished significantly as has the potential negative economic impacts for developing countries Assuring growth through increased productivity ... Addressing high unemployment and slack capacity remain priorities for countries in developing Europe and in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the majority of developing countries are operating at or close to full capacity. For them, additional demand stimulus could be counter-productive - raising indebtedness and inflation without significant payoff in terms of additional output. Moreover, while GDP growth should strengthen over the next couple of years, strong growth in developing countries is not guaranteed. To grow rapidly, developing countries will need to maintain the reform momentum that underpinned the acceleration of growth during the 1990s and 2000s. In the absence of additional efforts to raise productivity through structural reforms, investment in human capital, and improved governance and investment conditions, developing country growth may well slow.

Commodity Markets --- Commodity Prices --- Developing Countries --- Economic Outlook --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Markets --- Fiscal Cliff --- Forecasts --- GDP --- International Economics and Trade --- Macroeconomic Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Vulnerability

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Although emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) weathered the global recession a decade ago relatively well, they now appear less well placed to cope with the substantial downside risks facing the global economy. In many EMDEs, the room for monetary and fiscal policies to respond to shocks has eroded; underlying growth potential has slowed; and the momentum for improving policy frameworks, institutions, and business climates seems to have slackened. The experience of the 2009 global recession highlights once again the critical role of policy room in shielding economic activity during adverse shocks. The subsequent decade of anemic growth underlines the need for sound policy frameworks, institutions, and business environments to promote sustained growth. With the global growth outlook weakening and vulnerabilities rising, the policy priority for EMDEs is now to improve resilience to shocks and to lift long-term growth prospects.

Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Economic Growth --- Economic Integration --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Global Recession --- International Business Cycle --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomic Policy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth