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The Japanese economy has been hit hard by the slump in global demand for advanced manufacturing products such as cars, information technology, and machinery, which account for a larger share of production than in other G-7 economies. Most of the drop in Japan’s exports was caused by a sharp retrenchment in overseas demand for motor vehicles, information technology, and capital goods, as firms and consumers cut their investment and durable goods spending in response to the global credit crunch and extraordinary uncertainties about the outlook. Worsening domestic financial conditions deepened the current recession by reducing domestic demand, especially business investment. The short-term outlook is further clouded by the needed adjustment to inventories, which have accumulated well above normal levels in both Japan and its export markets. During the 2001 recession, industrial production started recovering about 5 months after the peak of the inventory cycle. By analogy, one could expect a bottom in industrial production around May 2009. However, since the global environment is expected to remain weak and the Japanese economy faces headwinds from tight domestic financial conditions, the production adjustment could take longer during this recession.

Exports and Imports --- Industries: General --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- International economics --- Exports --- Industrial production --- International trade --- Production --- Industries --- Japan

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This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.

Exports and Imports --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Debt burden --- Debt default --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Debts, External --- United States

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This paper examines the role of foreign exchange receipts in determining Iran’s imports during 1961/62-1992/93. It provides evidence of the existence of long-term relationship between imports and foreign exchange receipts, as well as the traditional price and output variables.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Imports --- Exchange restrictions --- Oil exports --- Exports --- International trade --- Iran, Islamic Republic of

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The paper surveys six WTO agreements selected on the basis of their potential relevance for Fund-supported programs, namely Customs Valuation, Subsidies, Safeguards, Antidumping, Trade-Related Investment Measures, and Trade in Services. It offers a critical reading of the rules, and highlights potential issues of concern for the Fund in its policy dialogue with member countries with selected country examples. As some rules have very different implications for various groupings of countries, the paper calls attention to policy consistency in the trade area of these countries, and points out some areas where implementation of the rules might pose problems.

Antidumping duties --- Antidumping --- Countervailing duties --- Export subsidies --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Imports --- International economics --- International Trade Organizations --- International trade --- Trade Policy --- Trade: General --- Philippines

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Purchases under the compensatory financing facility, the IMF’s largest special facility, accounted for more than one quarter of total credit extended by the IMF over the period 1976 to 1985. Given the size of these operations, it is of some interest to determine to what extent the facility served its intended purpose—the stabilization of foreign exchange earnings of member countries experiencing temporary export shortfalls. This paper develops a methodology for evaluating the CFF’s stabilizing role and provides some quantitative evidence of its effectiveness. This evidence is then used to obtain an indication of the facility’s role in stabilizing the demand for international reserves and its contribution to net welfare gain. The results suggest that the facility has been important in stabilizing members’ earnings, and that the net benefits derived by them can be regarded as substantial.

Export earnings --- Export performance --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Imports --- Income economics --- International economics --- International trade --- Labor --- Labour --- Trade: General --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Argentina