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This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM's role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.

Devaluation of currency.

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This report provides an update on the work and direction of the Fund since the 2005 Spring Meetings. Since that time, the global economy has enjoyed strong growth--albeit with significant regional differences--and an absence of major financial crises, even though growing imbalances and rising oil prices have clouded the outlook. Although some steps the Fund has been advocating for some time have been taken--for example, increased flexibility in exchange rate regimes in Asia-decisive action to reduce global imbalances has remained elusive. At the same time, progress toward the Millennium Development Goals MDGs remains slow and uneven,1 highlighting the need for concerted action by all countries. Further impetus is also urgently needed to move the Doha Round of trade negotiations toward an ambitious conclusion.

Devaluation of currency.

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"According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable goods, and this reduces the necessary adjustment in output relative to the case in which the exchange rate remains constant. This paper uses a simple small open economy model with sticky prices to characterize optimal fiscal and monetary policy in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, in this framework optimal exchange rate policy cannot be characterized just by the cyclical properties of output. The source of the shock matters: while recessions induced by a drop in the price of exportable goods call for a devaluation of the currency, those induced by a drop in productivity in the non-tradable sector require a revaluation. "--World Bank web site.

Devaluation of currency. --- Recessions.

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"According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable goods, and this reduces the necessary adjustment in output relative to the case in which the exchange rate remains constant. This paper uses a simple small open economy model with sticky prices to characterize optimal fiscal and monetary policy in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, in this framework optimal exchange rate policy cannot be characterized just by the cyclical properties of output. The source of the shock matters: while recessions induced by a drop in the price of exportable goods call for a devaluation of the currency, those induced by a drop in productivity in the non-tradable sector require a revaluation. "--World Bank web site.

Devaluation of currency. --- Recessions.

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This report provides an update on the work and direction of the Fund since the 2005 Spring Meetings. Since that time, the global economy has enjoyed strong growth--albeit with significant regional differences--and an absence of major financial crises, even though growing imbalances and rising oil prices have clouded the outlook. Although some steps the Fund has been advocating for some time have been taken--for example, increased flexibility in exchange rate regimes in Asia-decisive action to reduce global imbalances has remained elusive. At the same time, progress toward the Millennium Development Goals MDGs remains slow and uneven,1 highlighting the need for concerted action by all countries. Further impetus is also urgently needed to move the Doha Round of trade negotiations toward an ambitious conclusion.

Devaluation of currency.