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This study addresses the potential contribution of confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) toward their goal of building confidence and security in Europe. First, the report surveys and discusses various publicly stated U.S. or NATO objectives for CSBMs, distilling these to three core objectives: inhibiting the threatened use of force for political intimidation, reducing misunderstanding/miscalculation, and making surprise attack less likely. It then describes the original NATO package of CSBMs, which consisted of six measures presented in January 1984 at the Conference on Disarmament in Europe (CDE) in Stockholm, analyzing and evaluating that package in the context of U.S./NATO objectives for CSBMs. Finally, it identifies several potential options available to the West for the future development of CSBM packages within the CDE. The study includes a brief summary of the main elements in both the original NATO package and the concluding document (reproduced in an appendix) of the Stockholm conference.
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Confidence and security building measures (International relations) --- United States --- China --- Relations
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This report presents the results of two political-military games played at RAND in the spring of 1986 to investigate how possible European confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) might affect interaction between the United States and the Soviet Union in a crisis situation. The objective was to examine which of three hypotheses best describes the most likely effects of CSBMs in a crisis: (1) CSBMs can help make crucial distinctions/decisions; (2) CSBMs neither help nor harm decisionmaking; and (3) CSBMs can cause more harm than good. The games provided no evidence that CSBMs could reduce the risks of miscalculation or misunderstanding. However, neither did the CSBMs appear to exacerbate misunderstandings. The players tended to focus on their own beliefs and to ignore evidence bearing on the intentions of the other side. The study indicates a need for further research on such important issues as the interplay between intimidation and surprise.
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