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One of the principal types of wealth accumulation in the United States has been real property, especially in the form of homes as the society became more urban and less agricultural. At present, almost two-thirds of all American households reside in owner-occupied structures. The present paper explores this phenomenon for the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries from the standpoint of property accumulation over the life course. Age patterns of homeownership for urban and rural non-farm households are the central concern. Drawing on micro samples of the 1865 New York State census and the 1900 united States census, micro data on the 6,809 worker families residing in the united States in the 1889/90 U.S. Commissioner of Labor Survey, and published data from the 1890 and 1930 united States censuses, the incidence of homeownership by age of household head is described. The level of the ownership curve (by age) has risen over time, and its shape has changed. Differences by region and rural-urban residence are shown to have existed. Differentials between native and foreign-born whites narrowed from the late nineteenth century to circa 1930, but those by race (black versus white) persisted.
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The homeownership rate in the United States was essentially stagnant during the 1980's. This stagnation should be a source of concern if the rate reflects stagnant economic conditions and ownership opportunities, not if it simply reflects changing demographic conditions or preferences. Using a series of affordability measures, we find that homeownership opportunities improved almost everywhere during the 1980's, suggesting that the cause of the stagnant rate was something other than economic conditions. In fact, we find that both demographics and changes in preferences led to an increase in the proportion of households headed by single people; all else being equal, this would tend to push the owner-occupancy rate downward. We also found that while homeownership opportunities improved during the 1980's, the ex ante use cost of owning a home increased almost everywhere, reducing the financial attractiveness of owning a home. The combination of improving affordability conditions and worsening financial appeal had an overall neutral effect on the aggregate ownership rate.
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This paper examines homeownership and housing demand for a sample of approximately 6,800 urban, industrial workers in the United States for the period 1889/90. Using data from the Sixth and Seventh Annual Reports of the U.S. Commissioner of Labor, housing demand is viewed as a two part process: first, the "tenure choice" decision whether to own or rent; and, second, how much of either type of housing to purchase. Tenure choice and renter demand equations are estimated, using the concept of expected, rather than current income. Data limitations did not permit estimation of owner demand. The results indicate lower homeownership rates among American workers circa 1890 than later and significant effects on ownership of income, age of household head, region, industry, occupation, ethnicity, and family size and? composition. Rental prices and value/rent ratios had effects in the expected directions. Partial and full elasticities calculated for renter demand reveal downward biases if only current income is used to estimate housing demand. The results indicate that modern housing demand theory performs well with historical data.
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After a strong start in early 2022, the largest COVID-19 wave in two years and resulting mobility restrictions have disrupted China's growth normalization. The global environment has also significantly worsened following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow sharply to 4.3 percent in 2022. In the face of domestic and external headwinds, China's policymakers should carefully calibrate its policies. In the short term, China should balance COVID-19 mitigation with supporting economic growth. Over the medium term, greater efforts are needed to shift away from the old playbook of stimulus-led investment to boost economic growth. Decisive action to encourage a shift toward consumption, tackle social inequality, and rekindle innovation and productivity growth would help achieve a more balanced, inclusive, and sustainable growth trajectory for China.
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