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Debt sustainability
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ISBN: 9781009218528 9781009218481 Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge Cambridge University Press

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Abstract

This study presents the facts, arguments and scenarios around public debt from a global perspective. Especially the largest economies feature record debt and fiscal risks, including from population ageing and financial imbalances. Given low interest rates, there is no imminent problem. But at some point, debt will have to come down. There are four possible scenarios how debt could come down. First, governments could economise and reform. Second, governments could default. Third, governments could erode the real value of debt via inflation and negative real interest rates. However, this scenario cannot continue forever. Policy errors can prompt a loss of confidence, destabilisation and crisis. This fourth scenario last included the largest economies in the 1970s. It would become a major global challenge if it were to happen again in today's interconnected world.

Keywords

public debt --- loss --- economic recession --- economy --- interest --- Crise économique --- Dette publique --- Pertes économiques --- Conditions économiques --- Intérêts --- intérêt --- ränta --- palūkanos --- procenti --- dobândă --- Zins --- kamata --- úrok --- τόκος --- imgħax --- intress --- obresti --- korko --- odsetki --- juro --- interes --- kamat --- камата --- interés --- rente --- интерес --- ús --- interesse --- norma e interesit --- intressimäär --- úroková sazba --- räntefot --- räntesats --- каматна стапка --- palūkanų norma --- úroková sadzba --- tipo de interés --- procentu likme --- kamatláb --- rentesats --- interest rate --- επιτόκιο --- kamatna stopa --- Zinsfuß --- úroková míra --- rata dobânzii --- taxa de juro --- Zinssatz --- rentevoet --- taux d'intérêt --- tasso d'interesse --- saggio d'interesse --- hospodářství --- économie --- икономика --- talous --- gospodarka --- geilleagar --- economia --- majandus --- hospodárstvo --- ekonomika --- economie --- Wirtschaft --- gazdaság --- økonomi --- οικονομία --- привреда --- gospodarstvo --- економија --- ekonomija --- ekonomi --- economía --- ekonomikos mokslas --- gazdálkodás --- стопанство --- економска рецесија --- rënie ekonomike --- ekonomikas lejupslīde --- recesiune economică --- Rezession --- икономическа рецесия --- ekonomikos nuosmukis --- ekonomska recesija --- economische recessie --- hospodářská recese --- gospodarska recesija --- økonomisk recession --- gazdasági recesszió --- recessione economica --- cúlú eacnamaíoch --- talouden taantuma --- récession économique --- reċessjoni ekonomika --- recession --- οικονομική ύφεση --- привредна рецесија --- recesión económica --- majanduslangus --- recesja gospodarcza --- recessão económica --- hospodárska recesia --- decelerazione della crescita economica --- økonomisk afmatning --- bankovna kriza --- criză economică --- hospodářská deprese --- krizë ekonomike --- ekonominės padėties blogėjimas --- deterioramento dell'economia --- desaceleración de la economía --- zhoršení hospodářství --- deterioração da economia --- détérioration de l'économie --- talouden laskusuhdanne --- crisi economica --- економска криза --- majanduse madalseis --- ekonomisk recession --- forringelse af økonomien --- wirtschaftliche Depression --- lågkonjunktur --- majanduse halvenemine --- gazdasági depresszió --- økonomisk depression --- depresion ekonomik --- hospodářská krize --- lama --- økonomisk krise --- hospodárska kríza --- economische crisis --- verval van de economie --- Verschlechterung der Wirtschaft --- konjunkturální krize --- crise économique --- përkeqësim i ekonomisë --- zastavení hospodářského růstu --- economic crisis --- Konjunkturkrise --- οικονομική καταστροφή --- depresión económica --- ekonominė krizė --- глобална финансиска криза --- deterioration of the economy --- cúlú eacnamaíochta --- hospodársky pokles --- økonomisk tilbagegang --- economische depressie --- ekonomska depresija --- κατάρρευση της οικονομίας --- majanduskriis --- crise económica --- gazdasági válság --- contracción económica --- lavkonjunktur --- ekonomisk kris --- οικονομική κρίση --- depressão económica --- financijska kriza --- dépression économique --- економска депресија --- ekonomický útlum --- depression --- a gazdaság hanyatlása --- depressione economica --- úpadok hospodárstva --- stagnace --- ekonominis nuosmukis --- talouskriisi --- pokles konjunktury --- crisis económica --- ekonomiskā krīze --- Rückgang der Konjunktur --- economic depression --- försämring av ekonomin --- ekonomisk depression --- Wirtschaftskrise --- επιδείνωση της οικονομίας --- ekonomska kriza --- hanyatló gazdaság --- konjunkturnedgång --- ekonomiskās situācijas pasliktināšanās --- загуба --- zaudējums --- underskott --- underskud --- ztráta --- kahjum --- дефицит --- deficyt --- pierdere --- vajaus --- strata --- déficit --- défice --- izguba --- έλλειμμα --- telf --- disavanzo --- tekort --- humbje --- Defizit --- губитак --- deficit --- nuostoliai --- caillteanas --- Fehlbetrag --- губиток --- Verlust --- gubitak --- manjak --- veszteség --- overheidsschuld --- borxhi publik --- javni dug --- fiachas poiblí --- δημόσιο χρέος --- valstybės skola --- offentlig gæld --- dívida pública --- statsskuld --- valsts parāds --- riigivõlg --- veřejný dluh --- javni dolg --- štátny dlh --- dejn pubbliku --- datorie publică --- јавен долг --- öffentliche Schulden --- јавни дуг --- обществен дълг --- deuda pública --- julkinen velka --- államadósság --- dette publique --- dług publiczny --- debito pubblico --- státní dluh --- nacionalinė skola --- државен долг --- емисија на јавниот долг --- šalies skola --- задолжување на државата --- valtion velka --- statsgæld --- valitsemissektori võlg --- öffentliche Schuld --- valdības parāds --- government debt --- амортизација на јавниот долг --- debito fluttuante --- vládní dluh --- nacionalni dug --- národný dlh --- nemzeti adósság --- datorie națională --- national debt --- valtionvelka --- vyriausybės skola --- vládny dlh --- debito redimibile --- indebitamento del settore pubblico --- вкупен обем на јавниот долг --- нето јавен долг --- titoli del debito pubblico --- avaliku sektori võlg --- borxh kombëtar --- državni dug --- datorie guvernamentală --- borxh shtetëror --- бруто јавен долг --- národní dluh --- Debts, Public. --- Fiscal policy. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Government policy


Multi
Fiscal policy under low interest rates
Author:
ISBN: 0262372754 0262372967 9780262544870 9780262372756 0262544873 9780262372961 Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. The MIT Press

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Abstract

Rethinking fiscal and monetary policy in an economic environment of high debt and low interest rates. Policy makers in advanced economies find themselves in an unusual fiscal environment: debt ratios are historically high, while real interest rates are extremely low. Such a fundamental change, which seems likely to last, calls for a rethinking of the role of fiscal and monetary policy -- and this is just what Olivier Blanchard proposes in Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates . There is a wide set of opinions about the direction fiscal policy should take. Some, pointing to the high debt levels, make debt reduction an absolute priority. Others, pointing to the low interest rates, are less worried; they suggest that there is still fiscal space, and, if justified, further increases in debt should not be ruled out. Blanchard argues that low interest rates decrease not only the fiscal costs of debt, but also the welfare costs of debt. At the same time, he shows how low rates decrease the room for maneuver of monetary policy -- and thus increase the benefits of using fiscal policy, including deficits and debt, for macroeconomic stabilization. In short, low rates imply lower costs and higher benefits of debt. Having sketched what optimal policy looks like, Blanchard considers three examples of fiscal policy in action: fiscal consolidation in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the large increase in debt in Japan, and the current US fiscal and monetary policy mix. His conclusions hold practical implications for economic and fiscal policy makers, bankers, and politicians around the world.

Keywords

Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- fiscal policy. --- economic conditions. --- interest. --- banking policy. --- monetary policy. --- economic indicator. --- majandusnäitaja --- ekonominis rodiklis --- economische indicator --- indicatore economico --- táscaire eacnamaíoch --- indicador económico --- indicator economic --- економски показател --- икономически индикатор --- hospodársky ukazovateľ --- gospodarski kazalec --- ekonomikas rādītājs --- економски показатељ --- ekonomski pokazatelj --- hospodářský ukazatel --- gazdasági mutató --- οικονομικός δείκτης --- wskaźnik gospodarczy --- økonomisk indikator --- tregues ekonomik --- Wirtschaftsindikator --- indikatur ekonomiku --- ekonomisk indikator --- indicateur économique --- taloudellinen indikaattori --- ekonomický ukazatel --- економски индикатор --- indice economico --- política monetaria --- politique monétaire --- νομισματική πολιτική --- politică monetară --- měnová politika --- menová politika --- rahapolitiikka --- pinigų politika --- beartas airgeadaíochta --- Geldpolitik --- política monetária --- monetārā politika --- monetair beleid --- rahapoliitika --- валутна политика --- penningpolitik --- monetarna politika --- монетарна политика --- polityka walutowa --- monetær politik --- politica monetaria --- politika monetarja --- monetáris politika --- politikë monetare --- currency reform --- monetární politika --- monetaire stabiliteit --- menová situácia --- νομισματική μεταρρύθμιση --- pinigų reforma --- situazione monetaria --- naudas politika --- monetáris helyzet --- měnová situace --- menová reforma --- currency situation --- situação monetária --- situación monetaria --- money policy --- valuuttatilanne --- situatë valutore --- reformă monetară --- penningreform --- νομισματική κατάσταση --- Währungspolitik --- Währungslage --- riforma monetaria --- monetáris reform --- monetarinė politika --- peňažná politika --- reformë valutore --- reforma monetária --- valuutareform --- valuutasituatsioon --- situație monetară --- novčarska politika --- pénzpolitika --- situation monétaire --- pénzreform --- rahareform --- réforme monétaire --- novčana politika --- valūtas reforma --- Geld- und Kreditpolitik --- reforma monetaria --- stabilità monetaria --- монетарна реформа --- Währungsreform --- monetaire situatie --- politika e parasë --- monetaarpoliitika --- monetaire hervorming --- piniginė padėtis --- valuuttauudistus --- měnová reforma --- monetär situation --- τραπεζική πολιτική --- Bankpolitik --- panganduspoliitika --- banku politika --- bankbeleid --- банкова политика --- pankkitoimintapolitiikka --- polityka bankowa --- politique bancaire --- politica bancaria --- bankarska politika --- politika bankarja --- bančna politika --- beartas baincéireachta --- bankų politika --- política bancaria --- política bancária --- politikë bankare --- банкарска политика --- banková politika --- bankpolitik --- politică bancară --- bankovní politika --- bankpolitika --- banko politika --- intérêt --- ränta --- palūkanos --- procenti --- dobândă --- Zins --- kamata --- úrok --- τόκος --- imgħax --- intress --- obresti --- korko --- odsetki --- juro --- interes --- kamat --- камата --- interés --- rente --- интерес --- ús --- interesse --- norma e interesit --- intressimäär --- úroková sazba --- räntefot --- räntesats --- каматна стапка --- palūkanų norma --- úroková sadzba --- tipo de interés --- procentu likme --- kamatláb --- rentesats --- interest rate --- επιτόκιο --- kamatna stopa --- Zinsfuß --- úroková míra --- rata dobânzii --- taxa de juro --- Zinssatz --- rentevoet --- taux d'intérêt --- tasso d'interesse --- saggio d'interesse --- majandustingimused --- condición económica --- dálaí eacnamaíocha --- икономически условия --- condition économique --- ekonomiska förhållanden --- ekonomické podmínky --- kushte ekonomike --- ekonominės sąlygos --- taloudelliset olot --- економски услови --- Wirtschaftsverhältnisse --- økonomisk stilling --- економске прилике --- condições económicas --- economische toestand --- warunki gospodarcze --- ekonomske prilike --- hospodárske podmienky --- gospodarske razmere --- gazdasági feltételek --- condizione economica --- οικονομικές συνθήκες --- kundizzjonijiet ekonomiċi --- saimnieciskie nosacījumi --- condiții economice --- aspecto económico --- tržní vývoj --- aspekt ekonomik --- aspetto economico --- aspeto económico --- οικονομική πλευρά --- ekonomisk aspekt --- околности во стопанството --- aspect economic --- markedsudvikling --- taloudellinen näkökohta --- οικονομική όψη --- ekonomiskais aspekts --- hospodářské podmínky --- economic aspect --- ekonomické poměry --- aspect économique --- majanduslik aspekt --- Marktentwicklung --- gazdasági szempontok --- економско опкружување --- economische aspecten --- gospodarske prilike --- ekonominis aspektas --- hospodárske hľadisko --- hospodářské aspekty --- økonomisk aspekt --- економски аспект --- politique fiscale --- politikë fiskale --- fiskális politika --- фискална политика --- belastingbeleid --- politika zdaňovania --- fiskální politika --- fiskālā politika --- skattepolitik --- politica fiscale --- porezna politika --- φορολογική πολιτική --- politika fiskali --- veropolitiikka --- fiskalna politika --- política fiscal --- polityka podatkowa --- fiskalinė politika --- beartas fioscach --- politică fiscală --- Steuerpolitik --- fiskaalpoliitika --- nodokļu politika --- maksupoliitika --- експанзивна фискална политика --- reforma zdaňovania --- politica taxelor --- iždo politika --- adópolitika --- политика на владина потрошувачка --- politikë për tatim-taksat --- taxation policy --- tax policy --- политика на оданочување --- politikë tatimore --- mokesčių politika --- fiscaal beleid --- контрактивна фискална политика --- maksustamispoliitika --- daňová politika --- fiškálna politika --- Monetary policy. --- Interest rates. --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Interest --- Monetary management --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Debts, Public. --- Fiscal policy. --- Social policy. --- Investment management

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