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The World Bank's flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud and others 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050, internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than 1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the population, at the high end of the confidence interval under the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the critical need for both inclusive development and low emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with the greatest gains achieved through early action.

Climate Change and Environment --- Climate Change Impacts --- Environment --- Migration --- Poverty Reduction

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Uganda is a diverse and verdant country. From the tall volcanic mountains along the eastern and western borders to the densely forested wetlands of the Albert Nile River and the rainforests in the center of the country, it encompasses many different ecosystems. Kampala, the capital city, is built around seven hills not far from the shores of Lake Victoria. These varying landscapes provide Ugandans with ample resources to capitalize on tourism and cultivate crops, including Ugandan coffee, which has become a favorite of coffee drinkers around the world. These rich and beautiful landscapes, however, are under threat from climate change, which could have disastrous effects for Ugandans. This report shows that by 2050, as many as 12 million people, or 11 percent of the population could move within Uganda because of slow onset climate factors, without concrete climate and development action. Immediate, rapid, and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration by about 35 per century Contextualizing the results from an innovative climate migration model applied to Lake Victoria Basin countries, it finds that such climate-induced migration, if unattended, may deepen existing vulnerabilities across the country, potentially leading to greater poverty, fragility, and conflict. As lives, livelihoods, and the economy are integrally linked to the environment, addressing climate change is an imperative for Uganda. Adopting inclusive development policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and integrate climate resilience could decrease the number of internal migrants significantly. Acting early and focusing on improved management of forest and other landscapes, developing local job opportunities, and providing basic services for both host communities and refugees will be important to help these communities survive and thrive in a changing climate. The right mix of policies would also encourage the ingenuity and energy of Uganda's youthful population, which is projected to almost triple by 2050.

Climate Change and Environment --- Climate Change Impacts --- Environment --- Migration --- Poverty Reduction

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The new Groundswell report builds on the work of the first, modeling three additional regions, namelyEast Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia—to provide a global estimateof up to 216 million climate migrants by 2050 across all six regions. It’s important to note that thisprojection is not cast in stone. If countries start now to reduce greenhouse gases, close developmentgaps, restore vital ecosystems, and help people adapt, internal climate migration could be reduced by upto 80 percent—to 44 million people by 2050.Without these actions, the report predicts that “hotspots” of climate migration will emerge as soon aswithin the next decade and intensify by 2050, as people leave places that can no longer sustain them andgo to areas that offer opportunity. For instance, people are increasingly moving to cities, and we find thatclimate-related challenges such as water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise play a rolein this migration. Even places which could become hotspots of climate out-migration because of increasedimpacts will likely still support large numbers of people. Meanwhile, receiving areas are often ill-preparedto receive additional internal climate migrants and provide them with basic services or use their skills.

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This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in the Lake Victoria Basin. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. Without concrete climate and development action, the five Lake Victoria Basin countries could see between 16.6 and 38.5 million people moving within their countries in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. Concrete climate and development action could reduce the scale of internal climate migration across the Basin countries by 30 percent. No country in the Lake Victoria Basin is immune to internal climate migration, but there are differences among countries depending on their demographic, economic, and climate trends. Tanzania and Uganda are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050, reaching a high of 16.6 million and 12.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario (which combines high emissions with unequal development pathways). This will be followed by Kenya (7.6 million), Rwanda (1.2 million), and Burundi (1.0 million). This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that the countries in the Basin are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration - the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.

Climate Change --- Climate Change and Environment --- Climate Change Impacts --- Demographics --- Environment --- Environment and Health --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Migration --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Aspects of Climate Change --- Social Development

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This report brings a much-needed focus to the nexus between climate change, migration and developmentin three regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Its startling conclusion is that theymay have to cope with more than 143 million internal climate migrants by 2050 unless concerted actionis taken at the national and global levels.Internal, rather than cross-border, migration is the report’s central focus for good reasons. There is growingrecognition among researchers that more people will move within national borders to escape the effects ofslow-onset climate change, such as droughts, crop failure, and rising seas.The number of climate migrants could be reduced by tens of millions as a result of global action to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and with far-sighted development planning. There is an opportunity now to planand act for emerging climate change threats.