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Incomplete information and heterogeneous beliefs in continuous-time finance
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ISBN: 3540003444 3642055672 3540247556 Year: 2003 Publisher: Berlin ; New York : Springer,

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Continuous-time finance was developed in the late sixties and early seventies by R. C. Merton. Over the years, due to its elegance and analytical conve­ nience, the continuous-time paradigm has become the standard tool of anal­ ysis in portfolio theory and asset pricing. However, and probably because it was developed hand in hand with option pricing, in which investors' expecta­ tions were thought not to matter, continuous-time finance has for a long time almost entirely neglected investors' beliefs. More recently, the development of martingale pricing techniques, in which expectations playa dominant role, and the blurring boundary between those methods and the original methods of continuous-time finance based on the Ito calculus, have allowed expecta­ tions to regain their central role in finance. The habilitation thesis of Professor Alexandre Ziegler is entirely devoted to the role of expectations in continuous-time finance. After a brief review of the literature, the author analyzes the consequences of incomplete informa­ tion and heterogeneous beliefs for optimal portfolio and consumption choice and equilibrium asset pricing. Relaxing the assumption that investors can ob­ serve expected dividend growth perfectly, the author shows that incomplete information affects stock prices and their dynamics, thus providing a potential explanation for the asset price bubble of the late 1990s. He also demonstrates how the presence of heterogeneous beliefs among investors affects their opti­ mal portfolios and their optimal consumption patterns.

A game theory analysis of options : corporate finance and financial intermediation in continuous time
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ISBN: 354020668X Year: 2004 Publisher: Berlin Springer

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A game theory analysis of options : contributions to the theory of financial intermediation in continuous time
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ISBN: 3540656286 Year: 1999 Publisher: Berlin ; New York : Springer,

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The Dominance of Retail Stores
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Year: 2003 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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A Game Theory Analysis of Options : Contributions to the Theory of Financial Intermediation in Continuous Time
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ISBN: 3662215896 Year: 1999 Publisher: Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg : Imprint: Springer,

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Modem option pricing theory was developed in the late sixties and early seventies by F. Black, R. C. Merton and M. Scholes as an analytical tool for pricing and hedging option contracts and over-the-counter warrants. However, already in the seminal paper by Black and Scholes, the applicability of the model was regarded as much broader. In the second part of their paper, the authors demonstrated that a levered firm's equity can be regarded as an option on the value of the firm, and thus can be priced by option valuation techniques. A year later, Merton showed how the default risk structure of corporate bonds can be determined by option pricing techniques. Option pricing models are now used to price virtually the full range of financial instruments and financial guarantees such as deposit insurance and collateral, and to quantify the associated risks. Over the years, option pricing has evolved from a set of specific models to a general analytical framework for analyzing the production process of financial contracts and their function in the financial intermediation process in a continuous time framework. However, virtually no attempt has been made in the literature to integrate game theory aspects, i. e. strategic financial decisions of the agents, into the continuous time framework. This is the unique contribution of the thesis of Dr. Alexandre Ziegler. Benefiting from the analytical tractability of continuous time models and the closed form valuation models for derivatives, Dr.


Book
Variance risk, financial intermediation, and the cross-section of expected option returns.
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Year: 2011 Publisher: London Centre For Economic Policy Research

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Digital
The dominance of retail stores
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Year: 2003 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock : Trump, Taxes and Trade
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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The election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America on 11/8/2016 came as a surprise. Markets responded swiftly and decisively. This note investigates both the initial stock market reaction to the election, and the longer-term reaction through the end of 2016. We find that the individual stock price reactions to the election - that is, the market's vote - reflect investor expectations on economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. Heavy industry and banking were relative winners, whereas healthcare, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and apparel were among the relative losers. High-beta stocks and companies with a hitherto high tax burden benefited from the election. Although internationally-oriented companies may profit under some plans of the new administration, several other arguments suggest a more favorable climate for domestically-oriented companies. Investors have found the domestic-favoring arguments to be stronger. While investors incorporated the expected consequences of the election for US growth and tax policy into prices relatively quickly, it took them more time to digest the consequences of shifts in trade policy on firms' prospects.


Dissertation
Etude des possibilités d'amélioration de la filière de production et de transformation agro-industrielle du manioc à Ibi Village (Province de Kinshasa, RDC)
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Year: 2012 Publisher: [S.l. : chez l'auteur],

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Stock Price Rewards to Climate Saints and Sinners : Evidence from the Trump Election
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Donald Trump's 2016 election and the subsequent nomination of Scott Pruitt, a climate skeptic, to lead the Environmental Protection Agency drastically downshifted expectations on US climate change policy. Firms' stock-price reactions to these events reveal whether their climate strategies affected their valuations. As widely reported, firms in industries with high carbon intensity benefited, at least briefly. It might be expected that companies with "responsible" strategies on climate change would also have lost value, since they were paying for actions that seemed less urgent. In fact, investors actually rewarded such firms. The analysis shows that this observed climate responsibility premium results, at least in part, from the strategic behavior of long-horizon investors who looked into the future to assess the valuation of corporations.

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