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We stress test the global economy to extreme climate change-related shocks on large and interconnected economies. Our analysis (i) identifies large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change-related shocks; (ii) estimates these economies’ external financing needs-at-risk due to these shocks, and (iii) quantifies the spillovers to the global economy using a global network model. We show that large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change could trigger a drain of $1.8 trillion in international reserves (2 percent of 2019’s global GDP). Domestic and multilateral macroeconomic policies can help reduce these global lossess to about $0.8 trillion. The scenario highlights the importance of considering global spillovers when assessing the impact of climate change-related shocks.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Economics --- Natural Disasters --- Finance: General --- Environmental Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Globalization: General --- Globalization: Finance --- International Financial Markets --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Climate change --- Natural disasters --- Finance --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environment --- Stress testing --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Climate policy --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Climatic changes --- Financial risk management --- Environmental policy --- United States

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This paper assess how priorities of the IMF’s membership have evolved over the past two decades, by using text mining techniques on a unique dataset combining IMFC communiqués and constituency statements. Our results reveal significant variation in priorities across time and constituencies. Statements can be characterized by the weight which they place on three key priorities: (i) growth; (ii) debt and development; and (iii) crisis management and quota reform. Sentiment analysis techniques also show that addressing climate change is a topic which is viewed positively by an increasing number of constituencies.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Environmental Economics --- Natural Resource Extraction --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Financial Crises --- Crisis Management --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Climate change --- Extractive industries --- Environment --- Mining sector --- Economic sectors --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Crisis management --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Climatic changes --- Mineral industries --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United States