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The paper uses firm-level data to assess the financial health of the Vietnamese non-financial corporate sector on the eve of pandemic. Our analysis finds that smaller domestic firms were particularly vulnerable even by regional comparison. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the COVID-19 shock will have a substantial impact on firms’ profitability, liquidity and even solvency, particularly in the hardest hit sectors that are dominated by SMEs and account for a sizeable employment share, but large firms are not immune to the crisis. Risks of default can propagate more broadly through upstream and downstream linkages to industries not directly impacted, with stresses potentially translating into an increase in corporate bankruptcies and bank fragility. Policy measures taken in the immediate aftermath of the crisis have helped alleviate liquidity pressures, but the nature of policy support may have to pivot to support the recovery.
Business and Economics --- Health and Fitness --- Accounting --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Service --- Diseases: Contagious --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation --- Crisis Management --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Health Behavior --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Liquidity --- Currencies --- Financial statements --- COVID-19 --- Services sector --- Asset and liability management --- Health --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Economic sectors --- Economics --- Finance, Public --- Communicable diseases --- Service industries --- Vietnam --- Corporations --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Business and Economics. --- Health and Fitness. --- Accounting. --- Finance: General. --- Money and Monetary Policy. --- Industries: Service. --- Diseases: Contagious. --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General. --- Financing Policy. --- Financial Risk and Risk Management. --- Capital and Ownership Structure. --- Value of Firms. --- Goodwill. --- Bankruptcy. --- Liquidation. --- Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation. --- Crisis Management. --- Economic Development: Financial Markets. --- Saving and Capital Investment. --- Corporate Finance and Governance. --- Portfolio Choice. --- Investment Decisions. --- Monetary Systems. --- Standards. --- Regimes. --- Government and the Monetary System. --- Payment Systems. --- Public Administration. --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits. --- Health Behavior. --- Industry Studies: Services: General. --- Finance. --- Monetary economics. --- Financial reporting, financial statements. --- Infectious & contagious diseases. --- Liquidity. --- Currencies. --- Financial statements. --- COVID-19. --- Services sector. --- Asset and liability management. --- Health. --- Money. --- Public financial management (PFM). --- Economic sectors. --- Economics. --- Finance, Public. --- Communicable diseases. --- Service industries. --- Economic aspects. --- Vietnam.
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The paper uses firm-level data to assess the financial health of the Vietnamese non-financial corporate sector on the eve of pandemic. Our analysis finds that smaller domestic firms were particularly vulnerable even by regional comparison. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the COVID-19 shock will have a substantial impact on firms’ profitability, liquidity and even solvency, particularly in the hardest hit sectors that are dominated by SMEs and account for a sizeable employment share, but large firms are not immune to the crisis. Risks of default can propagate more broadly through upstream and downstream linkages to industries not directly impacted, with stresses potentially translating into an increase in corporate bankruptcies and bank fragility. Policy measures taken in the immediate aftermath of the crisis have helped alleviate liquidity pressures, but the nature of policy support may have to pivot to support the recovery.
Vietnam --- Corporations --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Economic aspects. --- Vietnam. --- Business and Economics. --- Health and Fitness. --- Accounting. --- Finance: General. --- Money and Monetary Policy. --- Industries: Service. --- Diseases: Contagious. --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General. --- Financing Policy. --- Financial Risk and Risk Management. --- Capital and Ownership Structure. --- Value of Firms. --- Goodwill. --- Bankruptcy. --- Liquidation. --- Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation. --- Crisis Management. --- Economic Development: Financial Markets. --- Saving and Capital Investment. --- Corporate Finance and Governance. --- Portfolio Choice. --- Investment Decisions. --- Monetary Systems. --- Standards. --- Regimes. --- Government and the Monetary System. --- Payment Systems. --- Public Administration. --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits. --- Health Behavior. --- Industry Studies: Services: General. --- Finance. --- Monetary economics. --- Financial reporting, financial statements. --- Infectious & contagious diseases. --- Liquidity. --- Currencies. --- Financial statements. --- COVID-19. --- Services sector. --- Asset and liability management. --- Health. --- Money. --- Public financial management (PFM). --- Economic sectors. --- Economics. --- Finance, Public. --- Communicable diseases. --- Service industries.
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Although China's much-needed transition to a new growth path is proceeding broadly as expected, the transition is still fraught with uncertainty, including regarding the Chinese authorities' ability to achieve a smooth rebalancing of growth and the extent of the attendant slowdown in activity. Thus, in the short run, the transition process is likely to entail significant spillovers through trade and commodities, and possibly financial channels. This note sheds some light on the size and nature of financial spillovers from China by looking at the impact of developments in China on global financial markets, with a particular emphasis on differentiation across asset classes and markets. The note shows that economic and financial developments in China have a significant impact on global financial markets, but these effects reflect primarily the central role the country plays in goods trade and commodity markets, rather than China's financial integration in global markets and the direct financial linkages it has with other countries.
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The recent strong, sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar raises questions about possible financial spillover effects for emerging markets and developing countries. This report finds that, unlike past episodes, emerging markets' vulnerability has improved along a number of dimensions, though some risks persist (as identified in this report).
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