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This book examines the role for natural resource wealth in driving Africa's economic transformation and the implications of the low-carbon transition for resource-rich economies. Resource wealth remains central to most Sub-Saharan African economies, and significant untapped potential is in the ground. Subsoil assets-such as metals, minerals, oil, and gas-are key sources of government revenues, export earnings, and development potential in most countries in the Africa region. Despite large reserves, success in converting subsoil wealth into aboveground sustainable prosperity has been limited. Since the decline in commodity prices in 2014, resource-rich Africa has grown more slowly than the region's average growth rate. Finding ways to more effectively harness natural resource wealth to drive economic transformation will be central to Africa's economic future. As the world moves away from fossil fuels in alignment with commitments under the Paris Agreement, Africa's resource-rich countries face new risks and opportunities. Recent estimates suggest that 80 percent of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves must remain underground to meet the Paris targets, and much of these stranded reserves may be in Africa. This issue of stranded assets and, relatedly, "stranded nations," has major implications for the many African economies that are dependent on petroleum extraction and export. On the other hand, the energy transition will increase demand for raw material inputs involved in clean energy technologies. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy may create demand by 2050 for 3 billion tons of minerals and metals that are needed to deploy solar, wind, and geothermal energy. How can African economies tap into these opportunities while managing the downside risk to their fossil fuel wealth? Africa's Resource Future explores these themes and offers policy makers insights to help them navigate the coming years of uncertainty.

Carbon. --- Commodities. --- Economic development --- Mines and mineral resources --- Oil and Gas. --- Economic development. --- Mines and mineral resources.

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Sub-Saharan Africa's recovery from the pandemic is expected to decelerate in 2022 amid a slowdown in global economic activity, continued supply constraints, outbreaks of new coronavirus variants, climatic shocks, high inflation, and rising financial risks due to high and increasingly vulnerable debt levels. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the already existing tensions and vulnerabilities affecting the continent. Given the sources of growth in the region and the nature of the economic linkages with Russia and Ukraine, the war in Ukraine might have a marginal impact on economic growth and on overall poverty - as this shock affects mostly the urban poor and vulnerable people living just above the poverty line. However, its largest impact is on the increasing likelihood of civil strife as a result of food- and energy-fueled inflation amid an environment of heightened political instability. The looming threats of stagflation require a two-pronged strategy that combines short-term measures to contain inflationary pressures and medium-to-long-term policies that accelerate the structural transformation and create more and better jobs. In response to supply shocks, monetary policy in the region may prove ineffective to bring down inflation and other short-run options may be restricted by the lack of fiscal space. Concessional financing might be key to helping countries alleviate the impact of food and fuel inflation. Over the medium term, avoiding stagflation may require a combination of actionable measures that improve the resilience of the economy by shoring up productivity and job creation. Lastly, ongoing actions to enhance social protection--including dynamic delivery systems for rapid scalability and shock-sensitive financing--could be strengthened further to improve economic resilience against shocks and foster investments in productive assets.

Job creation. --- Labor market.

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This paper investigates the scale, causes, and timing of significant episodes of industrialization and deindustrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa. Recent studies have argued that the turning point of manufacturing output and employment shares tends to occur prematurely in this region. The analysis is performed using panel data methods for fractional responses and data from a variety of sources for a panel of 41 African countries. The results overwhelmingly do not support the common finding that Sub-Saharan African countries have begun to deindustrialize. Moreover, the study documents meaningful heterogeneity across Sub-Saharan Africa subregions, with the Southern region being the only subregion to have witnessed deindustrialization. However, this deindustrialization of the Southern subregion does not appear to be occurring prematurely. The study also explores the potential role of the Dutch disease and resource curse hypotheses in understanding Sub-Saharan Africa's manufacturing experience in resource rich countries.

Deindustrialization --- Economic Development --- Industrial Economics --- Industrialization --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Manufacturing --- Structural Transformation

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The paper investigates the structure and dynamics of consumption inequality and inequality of opportunity in Tanzania. The analysis covers the period 2001 to 2012. It reveals moderate and declining levels of consumption inequality at the national level, but increasing inequalities between geographic regions. Spatial inequalities are mainly driven by the disparities of households' characteristics and endowments across geographic locations. An important part of these endowments results from intergenerational transmission of parental background. Father's education appears as the most important background variable affecting consumption and income in Tanzania. Without appropriate policy actions, there are few chances for the next generations to spring out of the poverty and inequality lived by their parents, engendering risks of poverty and inequality traps in the country.

Equality Of Opportunity --- Equity and Development --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Unconditional Quantile Regression Decomposition

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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek