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Using two recently constructed measures of trade liberalization dates, this research studies the impact of trade liberalization on imports, exports, and overall trade balance for a large sample of developing countries. We find strong and consistent evidence that trade liberalization leads to higher imports and exports. However, in contrast Santos-Paulino and Thirwall (2004) who find a robustly negative impact of trade liberalization on the overall trade balance, we only find mixed evidence of such a negative impact. In particular, we find little evidence of a statistically significant negative impact using our first measure of liberalization dates which extends Li (2004). Using a second measure of liberalization dates compiled by Wacziarg and Welch (2003), we find some evidence that liberalization worsens the trade balance, but the evidence is not robust across different estimation specifications, and the estimated impact is smaller than that reported by Santos-Paulino and Thirwall (2004).

Balance of trade. --- Balance of trade --- Deficits, Trade --- Trade, Balance of --- Trade balance --- Trade deficits --- Trade surpluses --- Surpluses, Trade --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Mercantile system --- Payment --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Estimation --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Trade liberalization --- Exports --- Imports --- Estimation techniques --- Commercial policy --- Econometric models --- Indonesia

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Intangible investment is growing as a share of economic activity. We present a simple framework incorporating its distinguishing characteristic of generally greater scalability and lower marginal costs than tangible investment. We show evidence that this may have contributed to more elastic aggregate supply in recent years, which is consistent with lower inflation and a flattening of the Phillips curve. This framework also highlights the channels through which technological change, a large constituent of intangible investment, may be leading to wage stagnation and greater market concentration.

Inflation --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Intellectual Property Rights --- Market Structure and Pricing: General --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Intangible capital --- Inflation targeting --- Output gap --- Labor --- National accounts --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Production --- Import prices --- Saving and investment --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Imports --- United States

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This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.

Gross domestic product --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Forecasting --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Economic Forecasting --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- GDP forecasting --- Economic forecasting --- Time series analysis --- Vector autoregression --- Private consumption --- National income --- Consumption --- Economics --- Korea, Republic of --- Gdp forecasting

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How do countries enhance their exports of goods in a largely tariff-free environment? Our investigation of export performance of new member states in the European Union single market, which provides a natural control for barrier-free environment, points to the importance of structural reforms, particularly in the areas of higher education, skills upgrade, wage structure’s ability to provide incentives to work and foreign investment environment. In addition, establishing links with supply chains, which in addition to the above-mentioned reforms also depend on better institutions and infrastructure, are important. The analysis in the paper shows that new member states are at varying levels of quality and integration, which highlights the need for country-specific policy priorities. Services trade, which is subject to significant non-tariff barriers in the EU market even after the implementation of the Services Directive, shows considerable room for growth given the comparative advantage of some of the new member states.

Exports --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- International economics --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Service exports --- Export performance --- Foreign direct investment --- Human capital --- Balance of payments --- Investments, Foreign --- Czech Republic --- Income economics