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This paper combines firm-level data from 89 countries with updated country-level data on financial structure, and uses two estimation approaches. It finds that in low-income countries, labor growth is swifter in countries with a higher level of private credit/gross domestic product; the positive effect of bank credit is especially pronounced in industries that depend heavily on external finance; and banking development is positively associated with more physical and human capital investment. These findings are consistent with predictions from new structural economics. In high-income countries, labor growth rates are increasing in the level of stock market capitalization, which is also consistent with predictions from new structural economics, although the analysis is unable to provide evidence that the association is causal. It finds no evidence that small-scale firms in low-income countries benefit most from private credit market development. Rather, the labor growth rates of larger, capital-intensive firms increase more with the level of private credit market development, a finding consistent with the history-based political economy view that banking systems in low-income countries serve the interests of the elite, rather than providing broad-based access to financial services.
Access to Finance --- Banks --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capital markets --- Debt Markets --- Economic development --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial development --- Financial structure --- Private Sector Development
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The Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864) in China was the deadliest civil war in history. This paper provides evidence that this cataclysmic event significantly shaped the Malthusian transition and long-term development that followed, especially in areas where the experiences that stemmed from the rebellion led to better property rights, stronger local fiscal capacity, and rule by leaders with longer-term governance horizons. More than one and a half centuries after the rebellion's end, population increases from pre-war levels remain 38 to 67 percent lower in areas that were affected by the rebellion than in those that were unaffected. Moreover, areas that were affected by the rebellion have, on average, greater fiscal capacity and modern economic sectors to the present day. Two channels for the effects of the rebellion are stationary banditry (manifested by varying property rights and the rebellion area's proximity to the Taiping capital), and the wartime strengthening of fiscal capacity. The analysis shows evidence of complementarity between wartime state capacity and local institutions, and of the long-term benefits of fiscal decentralization in a large country. Furthermore, initial human capital is strongly associated with long-term development.
Governance --- Local Government --- Long-Term Development --- Malthusian Transition --- Private Sector Development --- Property Rights --- Public Sector Development --- State Capacity --- Stationary Bandits --- Taiping Rebellion
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This paper combines firm-level data from 89 countries with updated country-level data on financial structure, and uses two estimation approaches. It finds that in low-income countries, labor growth is swifter in countries with a higher level of private credit/gross domestic product; the positive effect of bank credit is especially pronounced in industries that depend heavily on external finance; and banking development is positively associated with more physical and human capital investment. These findings are consistent with predictions from new structural economics. In high-income countries, labor growth rates are increasing in the level of stock market capitalization, which is also consistent with predictions from new structural economics, although the analysis is unable to provide evidence that the association is causal. It finds no evidence that small-scale firms in low-income countries benefit most from private credit market development. Rather, the labor growth rates of larger, capital-intensive firms increase more with the level of private credit market development, a finding consistent with the history-based political economy view that banking systems in low-income countries serve the interests of the elite, rather than providing broad-based access to financial services.
Access to Finance --- Banks --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capital markets --- Debt Markets --- Economic development --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial development --- Financial structure --- Private Sector Development
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Tournament competition is viewed as motivating bureaucrats in promoting growth. This paper examines how this incentive leads to economic performance manipulation. Using data from Chinese cities, the analysis shows that performance exaggeration increases over the course of the first term of the top bureaucrat, peaking in the last year of his or her term. Winning a tournament competition is behind this performance manipulation: political rivals reinforce each other in exaggerating performance, and political competition intensifies the tendency for manipulation. Performance exaggeration leads to higher chances of promotion, but the ratchet effect (that is, better performance today leading to a higher target tomorrow) and the potential to blame predecessors induce restraint. A good local institutional environment also restrains performance manipulation.
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This paper examines cross-country evidence of how the Covid-19 pandemic spread and the mortality rates associated with preexisting vulnerabilities, the government's mobility restriction policy, institutions (democracy), and culture (individualistic culture and trust). Preexisting vulnerabilities (that is, the share of the elderly, urbanization, obesity prevalence, and air pollution) increase the spread of the pandemic and/or the mortality rate. On average, the government policy delay in mobility restriction, democracy, and culture indicators are not significantly associated with the pandemic outcomes. However, government delay in restricting mobility drastically amplifies the positive association between preexisting vulnerabilities and pandemic mortality. Individualistic culture and general trust amplify the positive links between pandemic mortality and the share of elderly people or urbanization. The analysis shows that in modeling the pandemic outcomes, it is important to consider cross-country spatial interactions.
Closedown --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Culture --- Democratic Government --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Governance --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Institutions --- Lockdown --- Mobility Restrictions --- Mortality --- Pandemic Impact --- Pandemic Response --- Pandemic Spread --- Public Health Promotion
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Africa's economic performance has been widely viewed with pessimism. In this paper, we use firm-level data for around 80 countries to examine formal firm performance. Without controls, manufacturing African firms perform significantly worse than firms in other regions. They have lower productivity levels and growth rates, export less, and have lower investment rates. Once we control for geography, political competition and the business environment, formal African firms lead in productivity levels and growth. Africa's conditional advantage is higher in low-tech than in high-tech manufacturing, and exists in manufacturing but not in services. The key factors explaining Africa's disadvantage at the firm level are lack of infrastructure, access to finance, and political competition.
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A void in the literature on the business environment is how it evolves over time. Focusing on China during its crucial two decades of transition (from the early 1990s to the early 2010s), this paper documents how the country's business environment and the characteristics of entrepreneurs evolved, along with the role played by local governments. Relying on multiple comprehensive data sets, the paper shows that many aspects of local business environments improved: infrastructure, development of the court system, and access to external finance. Meanwhile, the share of politically connected private firms remained large, and their advantage in accessing key resources increased. Under this dual-track private sector development, private firms became larger and more innovative and adopted more formal corporate governance mechanisms. Entrepreneurs became much better educated, with more diverse sectoral experience. Market competition increased over time, especially after China's World Trade Organization entry. The paper offers suggestive evidence that this dual track development had negative consequences, such as a lower tendency to innovate by politically connected firms.
Business Environment --- Competitiveness and Competition Policy --- Corporate Governance --- Enterprise Development and Reform --- Entrepreneurship --- Governance --- Innovation --- Local Governance --- Local Government --- Market Competition --- Political Connections --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Economics --- World Trade Organization
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Africa's economic performance has been widely viewed with pessimism. This paper uses firm-level data for 89 countries to examine formal firm performance. Without controls, manufacturing African firms do not perform much worse than firms in other regions. But they do have structural problems, exhibiting much lower export intensity and investment rates. Once the analysis controls for geography and the political and business environment, formal African firms robustly lead in sales growth, total factor productivity levels and productivity growth. Africa's conditional advantage is higher in low-tech than in high-tech manufacturing, and exists in manufacturing but not in services. While geography, infrastructure, and access to finance play an important role in explaining Africa's disadvantage in firm performance, the key factor is party monopoly. The longer a single political party remains in power, the lower are firm productivity levels, growth rates, and sales growth for manufacturing. In contrast, the business environment and firm characteristics (except for foreign investment) do not matter as much. The paper also finds evidence that the effects of the political and business environment are heterogeneous across sectors and firms of various levels of technology.
Business environment --- E-Business --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Geography --- Informality --- Infrastructure --- Institutions --- Labor Policies --- Manufacturing --- Party monopoly --- Private Sector Development --- Services --- Africa
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