Listing 1 - 4 of 4 |
Sort by
|
Choose an application
This paper examines the transmission mechanism through which unconventional monetary policy affects long-term interest rates. I construct a real-time measure summarizing market projections of the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program, and analyze the determination of term premiums and expectations of future short-term interest rates in a sample spanning more than two decades. Empirical findings suggest that the LSAP has effectively lowered the long-term Treasury bond yields, through both "signaling" and "portfolio balance" channels. On the other hand, the Fed's "forward guidance" also leads to gradual extension of market projections for the duration of the LSAP program, thereby enhancing the LSAP's effect to keep term premiums low. Estimation results also reveal a diminished effectiveness of the LSAP during QE III. Finally, model simulations underscore the importance of policy transparency in minimizing unnecessary market turbulence and ensuring a timely and smooth exit of the unconventional monetary policy stimulus.
Monetary policy. --- Interest rates. --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Interest --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: Futures --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Unconventional monetary policies --- Yield curve --- Short term interest rates --- Long term interest rates --- Futures --- Monetary policy --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Interest rates --- Derivative securities --- United States
Choose an application
The paper contributes to the discussions on fiscal governance in Europe. It takes stock of recent reforms, identifies areas for further progress, and discusses a menu of policy options for the medium-term. The issues covered include: (i) the growing complexity of the European framework and ways to simplify it; (ii) the difficulties to measure and implement structural stance indicators; (iii) the challenge of reconciling fiscal sustainability and growth; (iv) the need to enhance coordination in the area of monitoring; and (v) the obstacles to compliance and proposals to strengthen enforcement.
Economic and Monetary Union. --- Fiscal policy--Europe. --- Economic evelopment--Europe. --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- Intergovernmental Relations --- Federalism --- Secession --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- Fiscal governance --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal rules --- Debts, Public --- United States --- Fiscal policy.
Choose an application
We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional VAR approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand.
Petroleum products --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Energy industries --- Oil industries --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Economic aspects --- Refining --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Energy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Oil production --- Consumer price indexes --- Commodities --- Production --- Price indexes --- United States
Choose an application
The momentum for structural reforms is waning in the euro area at a time when even faster progress is needed to boost productivity and growth, achieve real economic convergence, and improve the resilience of the monetary union. What can the European Union (EU) institutions do to bridge this divide? This paper argues for greater simplicity, transparency and accountability in the EU governance framework for structural reforms. Our three interrelated proposals—“outcome-based” benchmarking; better use of existing EU processes to strengthen oversight and reduce discretion; and improved financial incentives—could help advance reforms. Ex post monitoring by an independent EU-level “structural council” and ex ante policy innovation by national productivity councils could strengthen accountability and ownership. Deeper governance reforms should be considered in the medium-term with a view toward a greater EU role in promoting convergence.
Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Europe --- Council of Europe countries --- Eastern Hemisphere --- Eurasia --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Capitalist Systems: Planning, Coordination, and Reform --- Political Economy --- Intergovernmental Relations --- Federalism --- Secession --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Labor Economics: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Structural reforms --- Labor taxes --- Labor --- EU governance framework --- Monetary unions --- Macrostructural analysis --- Taxes --- Fiscal policy --- Economic integration --- Income tax --- Labor economics --- Germany
Listing 1 - 4 of 4 |
Sort by
|