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This book takes a powerful new approach to a question central to comparative politics and economics: Why do some leaders of fragile democracies attain political success when pursuing drastic, painful economic reforms while others see their political careers implode? Kurt Weyland examines the surprising willingness of presidents in four Latin American countries to enact daring reforms and the unexpected resultant popular support. He argues that only using the insights of prospect theory to understand how leaders understand the gains and losses from reform can one fully account for the twists and turns of politics and economic policy in Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela during the 1980s and 1990s.

Opinion publique - Amerique du Sud --- Democratie - Amerique du Sud --- Venezuela --- Peru --- Brasilien --- Argentina --- Okonomisk-politiske strategier --- Okonomisk planlaegning --- Markedsokonomi --- Udviklingsstudier --- Udviklingsstrategier-u-lande --- Udviklingspolitik --- South America --- Economic policy --- Public opinion. --- Economic conditions --- Political aspects. --- America. --- Arbetman, Marina. --- Austria-Hungary. --- Austro-Prussian War. --- Battle of Navarino Bay. --- Besika Bay. --- Bismarck. --- Bolshevik Revolution. --- China. --- Concert of Europe. --- Constantinople. --- Corinth. --- Duke of Argyll. --- Franco-Mexican War. --- Garnham, David. --- German-Russian trade. --- Great Depression. --- Hamilton, Alexander. --- Holy Alliance. --- Horvath, William J. --- Italo-Roman War. --- Jordan. --- King, Joel. --- Knorr, Klaus. --- Kuczynski, Thomas. --- Lalman, David. --- Liesner, Thelma. --- action-reaction models. --- anarchy. --- capabilities. --- capital ships. --- coefficient of variation. --- collective goods. --- deterrence. --- economic statecraft. --- economies of scale. --- energy consumption. --- exchange rates. --- hegemonic war. --- hegemony. --- infant industries. --- interdependence. --- international institutions. --- major powers. --- mercantilism. --- multipolarity. --- neomercantilism. --- neorealism. --- numerical simulation. --- optimal tariff. --- phoenix factor. --- privileged group. --- Opinion publique --- Democratie

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Investigating the crucial political issue for many Latin American countries - the possibility for redistributing wealth and power through the democratic process - this work investigates Brazil's redistributive initiatives in tax policy and in social security and health care.

Democracy --- Equality --- Brazil --- Political Science --- Social Science --- Business & Economics

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Why do very different countries often emulate the same policy model? Two years after Ronald Reagan's income-tax simplification of 1986, Brazil adopted a similar reform even though it threatened to exacerbate income disparity and jeopardize state revenues. And Chile's pension privatization of the early 1980's has spread throughout Latin America and beyond even though many poor countries that have privatized their social security systems, including Bolivia and El Salvador, lack some of the preconditions necessary to do so successfully. In a major step beyond conventional rational-choice accounts of policy decision-making, this book demonstrates that bounded--not full--rationality drives the spread of innovations across countries. When seeking solutions to domestic problems, decision-makers often consider foreign models, sometimes promoted by development institutions like the World Bank. But, as Kurt Weyland argues, policymakers apply inferential shortcuts at the risk of distortions and biases. Through an in-depth analysis of pension and health reform in Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Peru, Weyland demonstrates that decision-makers are captivated by neat, bold, cognitively available models. And rather than thoroughly assessing the costs and benefits of external models, they draw excessively firm conclusions from limited data and over extrapolate from spurts of success or failure. Indications of initial success can thus trigger an upsurge of policy diffusion.

Policy sciences. --- Decision making --- Policy-making --- Policymaking --- Public policy management --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Latin America --- Asociación Latinoamericana de Libre Comercio countries --- Neotropical region --- Neotropics --- New World tropics --- Spanish America --- Social policy

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This study investigates the three main waves of political regime contention in Europe and Latin America. Surprisingly, protest against authoritarian rule spread across countries more quickly in the nineteenth century, yet achieved greater success in bringing democracy in the twentieth. To explain these divergent trends, the book draws on cognitive-psychological insights about the inferential heuristics that people commonly apply; these shortcuts shape learning from foreign precedents such as an autocrat's overthrow elsewhere. But these shortcuts had different force, depending on the political-organizational context. In the inchoate societies of the nineteenth century, common people were easily swayed by these heuristics: jumping to the conclusion that they could replicate such a foreign precedent in their own countries, they precipitously challenged powerful rulers, yet often at inopportune moments - and with low success. By the twentieth century, however, political organizations had formed. As organizational ties loosened the bounds of rationality, contentious waves came to spread less rapidly, but with greater success.

Government, Resistance to --- Regime change --- Democracy --- Self-government --- Political science --- Equality --- Representative government and representation --- Republics --- Change, Regime --- Political violence --- Interim governments --- Legitimacy of governments --- Civil resistance --- Non-resistance to government --- Resistance to government --- Insurgency --- Nonviolence --- Revolutions --- History --- Europe --- Latin America --- Council of Europe countries --- Eastern Hemisphere --- Eurasia --- Politics and government --- Political resistance