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This paper provides an overview of trade reform in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) since 1996 and a quantitative assessment of potential effects on trade patterns and tariff revenue of the current reform agenda. Despite evidence of significant trade complementarities within WAEMU, implementation of the union's current trade regime still suffers from persistent non-tariff barriers and administrative weaknesses. Based on an assessment of prospects for further trade integration, the paper also recommends strengthening the implementation of the present tariff union and supports the plan to extend it to all ECOWAS members. Finally, the paper stresses that an Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU could bring to the region the political momentum needed to address the weaknesses of the current trade regime, while also underlining the corresponding challenges in terms of trade diversion and tariff revenue losses.

Africa, West --- Africa, Western --- West Africa --- Western Africa --- Commercial policy. --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Tariffs --- Imports --- Exports --- Customs unions --- Trade policy --- International trade --- Taxes --- Tariff --- Protectionism --- Commercial policy --- Mali

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This paper estimates agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in 162 countries between 1991 and 2015 and aims to understand sources of cross-country variations in agricultural TFP levels and its growth rates. Two factors affecting agricultural TFP are analyzed in detail – imported intermediate inputs and climate. We first show that these two factors are independently important in explaining agricultural TFP – imported inputs raise agricultural TFP; and higher temperatures and rainfall shortages impede TFP growth, particularly in low-income countries (LICs). We also provide a new evidence that, within LICs, those with a higher import component of intermediate inputs seem to be more shielded from the negative impacts of weather shocks.

Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Agriculture: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Agricultural economics --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Total factor productivity --- Agricultural sector --- Personal income --- Agricultural production --- Labor --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Agricultural industries --- Income --- Labor economics --- Mali

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This paper examines the effectiveness of capital outflow restrictions in a sample of 37 emerging market economies during the period 1995-2010, using a panel vector autoregression approach with interaction terms. Specifically, it examines whether a tightening of outflow restrictions helps reduce net capital outflows. We find that such tightening is effective if it is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals or good institutions, or if existing restrictions are already fairly comprehensive. When none of these three conditions is fulfilled, a tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows as it provokes a sizeable decline in gross inflows, mainly driven by foreign investors.

Capital movements --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: General --- Globalization: Finance --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- International economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Capital outflows --- Industrial production --- Capital controls --- Vector autoregression --- Production --- Econometric analysis --- Industries --- Malaysia

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Since the 1960s, several initiatives have been undertaken to enhance trade integration in Africa. However, substantial tariff and nontariff barriers remain in place. In recent years, African leaders have shown a renewed push for regional integration by signing the agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA has the potential to transform regional trade and thereby lift growth and support livelihoods across the continent. This paper lays out the benefits that successful AfCFTA implementation could unlock for Africa in terms of income, jobs, and other benefits. It is based on an empirical analysis of the obstacles to trade in goods and services and regional value chain integration along with a discussion of how regional trade integration and supporting policies could help African countries cope with ongoing global and domestic trends. The empirical analysis investigates the role of trade policy and the broader trade-enabling environment in determining the bilateral goods trade flows and country-level trade in services. It sheds light on how the implementation of AfCFTA and supporting policies could boost trade and income as well as help African countries integrate into regional value chains. The findings suggest that plausible reductions in tariffs and nontariff barriers under AfCFTA, along with improvements in broader trade-enabling environment (trade infrastructure, financial development, and domestic security), would substantially boost intra-African trade in goods and services, and support integration into regional value chains. Further, regional trade integration could be an important element of a strategy for African countries to cope with rapid population growth, climate change, and emerging geopolitical fragmentation.

Public Policy --- International Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Political Economy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Trade: General --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Political economy --- International institutions --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- International organization --- Exports --- International trade --- Trade integration --- Economic integration --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Trade in goods --- Trade agreements --- Economics --- International agencies --- International economic integration --- Tariff --- Balance of trade --- Commercial treaties

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In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Banks and Banking --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Monetary Policy --- Financial Crises --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Commodity Markets --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Prices --- Banking crises --- Early warning systems --- Commodity prices --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Crisis management --- Central African Republic