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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008, governments worldwide undertook massive fiscal interventions to stave off what otherwise would have likely been a system-wide financial and economic meltdown. The policy responses engendered significant shifts in growth trajectories and debt sustainability outlooks of both mature and developing economies. The magnitude of public liabilities incurred and the uncertainty surrounding the exit from unprecedented discretionary fiscal stimulus have become a major source of concern about a future crisis. Will the current stringent financial conditions lead

Debt relief --- Debts, Public. --- Economic policy. --- Financial crises. --- Monetary policy. --- Monetary management --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Crises --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing

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"The paper presents a fiscal estimate of Bulgaria's perspective European Union (EU) membership. The projected EU funds have two distinct effects: first, there is the overall effect on the balance of payments of the country; and second, there is the pure effect on the national budget. The paper concludes that Bulgaria is likely to benefit from large net inflows of resources of an average of 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007-09. In contrast, its fiscal position is expected to deteriorate by 1.6 percent of GDP on average in 2007-09 if no expenditure restructuring of the fiscal framework is carried out. The expected deterioration of the public finances related to EU accession would be due to co-financing requirements, national contributions to the EU budget, and possible full pre-financing of the EU direct payments to Bulgarian farmers in the first year of accession. However, the above expenditures will be partly offset by the budgetary compensation allocated out of the EU budget, savings from agricultural subsidies, and shifting of certain public expenditures to Cohesion Fund-supported projects. "--World Bank web site.

Balance of payments --- Budget --- European Union

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This paper explores how the ongoing crisis, the policy responses to it, and the post-crisis global economy will impact China's medium-term prospects for growth, poverty reduction, and development. The paper reviews China's pre-crisis growth experience, including its relationship to global economic developments. It discusses the pace, composition, sources, and financing of growth during 1995-2007, and the impact of key external and domestic influences. The paper also analyzes the immediate impact of the global crisis on China's economic performance in 2009 and its likely impact in the short run. It then discusses the government's policy response, with a particular focus on the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Finally, the paper explores China's medium-term growth prospects in light of the crisis and the key policies for moving to a robust and sustainable growth path post-crisis.

Access to Finance --- Access to financing --- Capital flows --- Commodity prices --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Developing countries --- Developing country --- Economic developments --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange rates --- Exporter --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Financial markets --- Global economy --- Globalization --- Gross domestic product --- Human development --- International bank --- International trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Policy response --- Policy responses --- Private Sector Development --- Risk premiums

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This paper uses model averaging techniques to identify robust predictors of sovereign default episodes on a pooled database for 46 emerging economies over the period 1980-2004. Sovereign default episodes are defined according to Standard and Poor's or by non-concessional International Monetary Fund loans in excess of 100 percent of the country's quota. The authors find that, in addition to the level of indebtedness, the quality of policies and institutions is the best predictor of default episodes in emerging market countries with relatively low levels of external debt. For emerging market countries with a higher level of debt, macroeconomic stability plays a robust role in explaining differences in default probabilities. The paper provides evidence that model averaging can improve out-of-sample prediction of sovereign defaults, and draws policy conclusions for the current crisis based on the results.

Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt management --- Debt Markets --- Default probabilities --- Developing country --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging economies --- Emerging market --- Emerging market countries --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign financing --- Indebtedness --- International bank --- International Economics and Trade --- Level of debt --- Macroeconomic stability --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary fund --- Reserves --- Sovereign debt --- Sovereign default --- Sovereign defaults