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Compliance with the AM+L4776L/CFT International Standard : Lessons from a Cross-Country Analysis
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ISBN: 1463901887 1463900082 1283565315 9786613877765 1463900015 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper assesses countries' compliance with the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) international standard during the period 2004 to 2011. We find that overall compliance is low; there is an adverse impact on financial transparency created by the cumulative effects of poor implementation of standards on customer identification; and the current measurements of compliance do not take into account an analysis of ML/FT risk, thereby undermining their credibility and the relevance of some of the policy recommendations taken on their basis. Moreover, we also examine the key role of some cultural, institutional, and financial factors in boosting countries' compliance using econometric analysis.


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Crime and the Economy in Mexican States : Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)
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ISBN: 1513511718 1513563955 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies the transmission of crime shocks to the economy in a sample of 32 Mexican states over the period from 1993 to 2012. The paper uses a panel structural VAR approach which accounts for the heterogeneity of the dynamic state level responses in GDP, FDI and international migration flows, and measures the transmission via the impulse response of homicide rates. The approach also allows the study of the pattern of economic responses among states. In particular, the percentage of GDP devoted to new construction and the perception of public security are characteristics that are shown to be associated with the sign and magnitude of the responses of economic variables to crime shocks.


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Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo
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ISBN: 1498318339 1498318290 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper argues that oil revenue management and public investment in Congo are vulnerable to corruption as a result of limited transparency and accountability. Corruption has potentially contributed to poor macro-fiscal outcomes. The paper acknowledges the authorities’ anti-corruption efforts made so far and proposes further critical reforms to reduce remaining vulnerabilities. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model results show that, depending on the reforms adopted, the potential additional growth can range between 0.8 to 1.8 percent per year over the next 10 years, and debt can decline by 2.25 to 3 percent of GDP per year over the same period. These results suggest that macrofiscal gains from anti-corruption reforms could be substantial even under conservative reform scenarios.


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The Relationship Between Illicit Coca Production and Formal Economic Activity in Peru
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ISBN: 1463901933 1463900511 1283553139 9786613865588 146390049X Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the relationship between unrecorded economic activity associated with the production of illicit coca and formally recorded economic activity in Peru. It does so by attempting to construct new regional level estimates for coca production and by implementing recently developed panel time series methods that are robust to regional heterogeneity and unobserved regional inter-dependencies. The paper finds that on balance illicit coca production crowds out formal sector production at the regional level, regardless of whether unanticipated changes occur nationally or regionally. However, total output nevertheless increases, since formal sector production is crowded out less than one for one.

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