Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001-2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel intensities, and pre-existing inflation levels were more prone to experience sustained inflationary effects from commodity price shocks. Countries with more independent central banks and higher governance scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better. The effect of the presence of inflation targeting regimes, however, appears very modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock.The evidence suggests that trade openness, financial development, dollarization, and labor market flexibility do not significantly influence the way in which domestic inflation responds to international commodity price shocks.

Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Commodity control. --- Inflation (Finance) --- International commodity control --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Commercial policy --- Cartels --- Producers' associations --- Prices --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Commodity Markets --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Monetary economics --- Commodity price shocks --- Commodity prices --- Inflation targeting --- Output gap --- Monetary policy --- Production --- Economic theory

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Raising Armenia’s long-term growth prospects is critical to meet the pressing need for jobs, achieve higher living standards, and arrest emigration. Armenia’s long-term growth prospects have weakened since the global COVID-19 crisis, while recent global and regional the geopolitical developments added new shocks. This paper argues that there is a need to boost the potential of the tradable sector by focusing on products with higher complexity to sustainably increase Armenia’s growth rate. It provides an overview of Armenia’s export performance, analyzes factors and policy valuables that affect export outcomes in terms of volumes and composition, and draws policy implications.

Armenia, Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exports --- International trade --- Export performance --- Service exports --- Trade agreements --- Real effective exchange rates --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial treaties

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Raising long-term growth and resilience and improving living standards and inclusion are the top economic policy priorities for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The region responded strongly to the COVID shock, which unavoidably caused a contraction in output and an increase in poverty and inequality. While the region is at the crossroads between the West and the East as it is facing heightened uncertainty due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the rising risk of global fragmentation. Climate change is an additional challenge that could have a significant negative impact on CCA countries in the long term. These challenges, however, also offer an opportunity for the region to develop a new growth model that could strengthen long-term resilience, accelerate income convergence with more advanced country peers, and improve human development and social outcomes. The paper argues that a more market-based allocation of limited resources is needed to channel capital and labor to their most productive use. The private sector needs to become a key driver of economic activity while the state provides a competitive and market-friendly business environment, delivers essential public goods and services, addresses externalities and market failures, and mitigates systemic risks. The state also retains a critical role in mobilizing public support and resources for climate policies and protecting the vulnerable. Well-designed social safety nets play a key role in reducing poverty and inequality and are essential to the new economic growth model to support human capital development and alleviate the impact of structural reforms on the most vulnerable.

Public Policy --- International Economics --- Political Economy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Political economy --- International institutions --- International organization --- Economics --- International agencies

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Raising long-term growth and resilience and improving living standards and inclusion are the top economic policy priorities for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The region responded strongly to the COVID shock, which unavoidably caused a contraction in output and an increase in poverty and inequality. While the region is at the crossroads between the West and the East as it is facing heightened uncertainty due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and the rising risk of global fragmentation. Climate change is an additional challenge that could have a significant negative impact on CCA countries in the long term. These challenges, however, also offer an opportunity for the region to develop a new growth model that could strengthen long-term resilience, accelerate income convergence with more advanced country peers, and improve human development and social outcomes. The paper argues that a more market-based allocation of limited resources is needed to channel capital and labor to their most productive use. The private sector needs to become a key driver of economic activity while the state provides a competitive and market-friendly business environment, delivers essential public goods and services, addresses externalities and market failures, and mitigates systemic risks. The state also retains a critical role in mobilizing public support and resources for climate policies and protecting the vulnerable. Well-designed social safety nets play a key role in reducing poverty and inequality and are essential to the new economic growth model to support human capital development and alleviate the impact of structural reforms on the most vulnerable.

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Повышение долгосрочного роста и стойкости к потрясениям, а также повышение уровня жизни и инклюзивности — главные экономические приоритеты стран Кавказа и Центральной Азии (КЦА). Регион принял активные меры в ответ на шок, вызванный COVID, который неизбежно вызвал сокращение производства и рост бедности и неравенства. Регион находится на пересечении путей между западом и востоком и сталкивается с повышенной неопределенностью вследствие войны России в Украине и возрастающего риска глобальной фрагментации. Изменение климата является еще одной проблемой, которая может иметь значительные негативные последствия для стран КЦА в долгосрочной перспективе. Однако эти трудности также предоставляют региону возможность разработать новую модель роста, которая повысит его долгосрочную устойчивость, ускорит сближение уровней доходов с более развитыми сопоставимыми странами, повысит степень развития человеческого потенциала и улучшит социальные результаты. В документе утверждается, что для направления капитала и рабочей силы на их наиболее продуктивное использование необходимо распределение ограниченных ресурсов на более рыночной основе. Частный сектор должен стать одной из основных движущих сил экономической активности, а государство должно создавать конкурентную и благоприятную для развития рынка деловую среду, предоставлять жизненно важные общественные блага и услуги, компенсировать внешние эффекты и недостатки в функционировании рынка и смягчать системные риски. За государством также остается принципиально важная роль в мобилизации общественной поддержки и ресурсов для мер климатической политики и защиты уязвимых слоев населения. Хорошо продуманные системы социальной защиты играют ключевую роль в уменьшении бедности и неравенства и принципиально необходимы в новой модели экономического роста для поддержки развития человеческого капитала и смягчения воздействия структурных реформ на наиболее уязвимые слои населения.

Economics --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Public Policy