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This paper analyzes factors that determine recent economic growth in the low-income countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States.2 The main findings are as follows: (1) productivity gains in export-oriented sectors and expansion of exports may have become the main sources of growth in five of the seven CIS-7 countries, while in the early years of transition the output recovery was mainly driven by consumption; (2) economic growth has concentrated in agriculture and the raw material sectors, and, thus, is vulnerable to changes in external conditions; and (3) structural reforms matter for growth, which is consistent with previous research on growth in transition countries.
Commonwealth of Independent States. --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Agriculture: General --- Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Accounting --- Agricultural economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Total factor productivity --- Agricultural sector --- Transportation --- Labor --- Growth accounting --- Industrial productivity --- Agricultural industries --- Saving and investment --- Labor economics --- Economic development --- Kyrgyz Republic --- Income economics
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This paper makes use of the IMF’s Database for Monitoring Fund Arrangements (MONA) to investigate whether transition countries that more successfully implement the conditionality of IMF programs tend to show a better performance on recovery and growth. It is not possible to determine a clear-cut relationship between the index that determines the level of compliance with structural benchmarks in IMF programs and growth. However, the paper finds a definite, positive relationship between the index of compliance with performance criteria and growth, even after controlling for the extent of stabilization of the transition countries.
Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- Structural reforms --- Multilateral development institutions --- Financial institutions --- Development banks --- Bulgaria
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