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We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. We show that returns to investment in agriculture, small and medium enterprises and human capital differ significantly from year to year. We also show how returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these shocks. We show how to use these estimates to appropriately widen estimated confidence intervals to account for aggregate shocks.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Traditional development economics has recently been revolutionized by the application of new economic tools and concepts. Development Microeconomics is the first in a series of books which will look at the entire spectrum of development economics issues, combining the strengths of conventional developmental thought with the insights of contemporary mainstream economics. High technical sophistication is avoided, and the only pre-requisite is some familiarity with the toolsof general microecomic theory at a first-year graduate or advanced undergraduate level. - ;Traditional development economics

Microeconomics --- Third World: economic development problems --- Microeconomics. --- Economic development. --- Micro-économie --- Développement économique --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Economic development --- Economic Theory --- Business & Economics --- 330.101 --- 330.104 --- 339.96 --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Price theory --- Economische analyse. Economische methodologie. Economische onderzoeksmethoden--(theoretische economie) --- Micro-economie --- Derde Wereld: economische ontwikkelingsproblematiek --- 330.101 Economische analyse. Economische methodologie. Economische onderzoeksmethoden--(theoretische economie) --- Micro-économie --- Développement économique --- E-books --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- Microéconomie

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Development economics --- Microeconomics --- Development economics. --- Microeconomics.

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We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Many basic economic theories with perfectly functioning markets do not predict the existence of the vast number of microenterprises readily observed across the world. We put forward a model that illuminates why financial and managerial capital constraints may impede experimentation, and thus limit learning about the profitability of alternative firm sizes. The model shows how lack of information about one's own type, but willingness to experiment to learn one's type, may lead to short-run negative expected returns to investments on average, with some outliers succeeding. To test the model we put forward first a motivating experiment from Ghana, and second a small meta-analysis of other experiments. In the Ghana experiment, we provide inputs to microenterprises, specifically financial capital (a cash grant) and managerial capital (consulting services), to catalyze adoption of investments and practices aimed towards enterprise growth. We find that entrepreneurs invest the cash, and take the advice, but both lead to lower profits on average. In the long run, they revert back to their prior scale of operations. The small meta analysis includes results from 18 other experiments in which either capital or managerial capital were relaxed, and find mixed support for this theory.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie