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We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of “shadow” policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth whereas other factors (including excess global savings) matter. Neutral rates likely turned negative during the Global Financial Crisis and are expected to increase only gradually looking forward.

Interest rates -- United States. --- Interest rates. --- Monetary policy -- United States. --- Monetary policy. --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Crises --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Central bank policy rate --- Output gap --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Potential output --- Production growth --- Financial services --- Production --- Financial crises --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United States

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Concerns about export growth within the euro area peripheral countries due to a lack of competitiveness within the euro area are a key policy issue. Our analysis suggests that: (i) Long-term price elasticities for intra-euro area exports are at least double those for extra-euro area exports, so traditional real effective exchange rate indexes may overstate the effectiveness of euro depreciation in restoring exports growth in the euro area periphery and; (ii) There are surprisingly wide divergences across alternative relative price measures and even when relative price data suggest a steady loss in intra- (and extra-) euro area competitiveness, the pace of deterioration depends on the measure of relative prices used.

Exports --- International trade --- Econometric models. --- Europe --- Council of Europe countries --- Eastern Hemisphere --- Eurasia --- European Union countries. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Trade: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Finance --- Real effective exchange rates --- Competition --- Exchange rates --- Consumer price indexes --- Financial markets --- Prices --- Price indexes --- Germany

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Despite significant strides in financial development over the past decades, financial dollarization, as reflected in elevated shares of foreign currency deposits and credit in the banking system, remains common in developing economies. We study the impact of financial dollarization, differentiating across foreign currency deposits and credit on financial depth, access and efficiency for a large sample of emerging market and developing countries over the past two decades. Panel regressions estimated using system GMM show that deposit dollarization has a negative impact on financial deepening on average. This negative impact is dampened in cases with past periods of high inflation. There is also some evidence that dollarization hampers financial efficiency. The results suggest that policy efforts to reduce dollarization can spur faster and safer financial development.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Dollarization --- Financial sector development --- Credit --- Bank deposits --- Monetary policy --- Financial markets --- Money --- Financial services --- Prices --- Financial services industry --- Banks and banking --- Angola

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Zonder onderwerpscode: financiewezen