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This paper investigates the determinants of tourism demand in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. We estimate the demand function in a panel setting using annual data from 1979 to 2005. Results show that tourism arrivals are significantly affected by economic developments in the source countries, while price considerations and external shocks (such as hurricanes and wars) are also important. Supply factors, such as developments in foreign direct investment and the number of airlines servicing a destination, are also found to be significant determinants of tourism demand.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Sports --- Gambling --- Restaurants --- Recreation --- Tourism --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Real effective exchange rates --- Foreign direct investment --- Personal income --- Oil prices --- Investments, Foreign --- Income --- Antigua and Barbuda
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Following very strong growth during the period 2000–12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon. We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000–12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.
Economic development --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Labor Economics: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Total factor productivity --- Capital accumulation --- Labor --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Gross fixed investment --- National accounts --- Financial markets --- Industrial productivity --- Saving and investment --- Labor economics --- Financial services industry --- Brazil --- Income economics
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This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in the short term. The estimated decline of about 1 percentage point originates from a sharply decelerating capital stock accumulation (as investment has dropped steeply) and a rising long-term unemployment rate (which would raise equilibrium unemployment rates). However, over the medium term, we expect Canada's potential GDP growth to gradually rise to around 2 percent, below the pre-crisis growth rate, mostly reflecting the effects of population aging and a secular decline in average working hours.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Financial Crises --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Economywide Country Studies: U.S. --- Canada --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labour --- income economics --- Total factor productivity --- Labor productivity --- Labor force participation --- Potential output --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Income economics
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Income inequality in Latin America has declined during the last decade, in contrast to the experience in many other emerging and developed regions. However, Latin America remains the most unequal region in the world. This study documents the declining trend in income inequality in Latin America and proposes various reasons behind this important development. Using a panel econometric analysis for a large group of emerging and developing countries, we find that the Kuznets curve holds. Notwithstanding the limitations in the dataset and of cross-country regression analysis more generally, our results suggest that almost two-thirds of the recent decline in income inequality in Latin America is explained by policies and strong GDP growth, with policies alone explaining more than half of this total decline. Higher education spending is the most important driver, followed by stronger foreign direct investment and higher tax revenues. Results suggest that policies and to some extent positive growth dynamics could play an important role in lowering inequality further.
Income distribution --- Equality --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Education: Government Policy --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- Public finance & taxation --- Income inequality --- Personal income --- Revenue administration --- Education spending --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Income --- Revenue --- Expenditures, Public --- Honduras
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This paper estimates neutral real interest rate (NRIR) ranges for 10 Latin American countries that either have full-fledged inflation targeting regimes in place or have recently adopted them, using an array of methodologies commonly used in the literature. We find that NRIRs have declined in the last decade, with more economically and financially developed economies exhibiting lower NRIR levels. Based on the estimated NRIRs, we assess that the current monetary stance (measured by the interest rate gap) is appropriately neutral in most of the considered economies, in line with closing output gaps. We also observe that the interest rate gap can be a good predictor of future inflation dynamics and economic growth. In addition, looking at the recent experiences in Brazil and Peru, we suggest that macro-prudential policies could affect the monetary stance even in the absence of direct interest rate changes, through affecting the NRIR.
Interest rates --- Interest --- Interest and usury --- Finance charges --- Income --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Output gap --- Real interest rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Monetary stance --- Production --- Financial services --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Brazil
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This paper analyzes the role of the tax and benefit system in spurring the impressive increase in Canadian female labor participation in the last decade. Using annual panel data for 10 large industrial countries over the period 1980-2001, I find that reforms in the Canadian tax and benefit system in the mid-1990s account for at least one-third of the observed increase in female participation in the period 1995-2001. The analysis indicates that policy initiatives similar to the "family-friendly" policies introduced in Canada could boost female participation in other countries and help policymakers meet the challenges of population aging.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Gulf Cooperation Council. --- International economic integration. --- Monetary unions -- Gulf Cooperation Council countries. --- Business & Economics --- Labor & Workers' Economics --- Monetary unions --- Common currencies --- Currency areas --- Currency unions --- Optimum currency areas --- Common markets --- Economic integration, International --- Economic union --- Integration, International economic --- Markets, Common --- Union, Economic --- Gulf Co-operation Council --- Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf --- States of Gulf Co-operation Council --- Golf-Rat --- GCC --- G.C.C. --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī al-ʻArabī --- GKR --- Kooperationsrat Arabischer Staaten am Golf --- Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf --- Duwal Majlis al-Khalīj --- Gŏlpʻŭ Hyŏmnyŏk Wiwŏnhoe --- Kŏlpʻŭ Hyŏmnyŏk Wiwŏnhoe --- Majlis al-Taʻāwun li-Duwal al-Khalīj al-ʻArabīyah --- Golfkooperationsrat --- AGCC --- A.G.C.C. --- Duwal Majlis al-Taʻāwun al-Khalījī --- Sovet sotrudnichestva arabskikh gosudarstv Persidskogo zaliva --- SSAGPZ --- Arab Gulf Cooperation Council --- مجلس التعاون الخليجي --- مجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربية --- Shūrā-yi Hamkārī-i Khalīj-i Fārs --- شوراى همکارى خليج فارس --- Persian Gulf Cooperation Council --- PGCC --- Conseil de coopération du Golfe --- Gulf Cooperative Council --- Currency question --- Money --- International economic relations --- Consiglio di cooperazione del Golfo --- Ccg --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Women''s Studies' --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labour --- income economics --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Public finance & taxation --- Women --- Tax wedge --- Labor markets --- Labor force participation --- Tax administration and procedure --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Canada --- Income economics --- Women & girls --- Women's Studies
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Despite the increasing interest in universal health care, little is known about the optimal way to finance, design, and implement it. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing some general policy recommendations on this important issue. While most of the paper addresses the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries, its policy implications are applicable to any country. The paper finds that the best financing option is country-specific depending on a country’s economic, cultural, institutional, demographic and epidemiological characteristics, as well as political economy considerations. However, taxation should be the primary financing source. It also concludes that an appropriate and realistic benefit package would need to be designed to ensure the system’s financial viability. Regarding the optimal way to implement universal health care, certain preconditions are needed, including sound public administration, a small informal economy, and a transparent health financing system that builds social consensus.
Public Health --- Health & Biological Sciences --- Medical Economics --- Medical economics. --- Medical care, Cost of. --- Cost of medical care --- Health care costs --- Health care expenditures --- Medical care --- Medical costs --- Medical expenses --- Medical service, Cost of --- Medicine --- Economics, Medical --- Health --- Health economics --- Hygiene --- Costs --- Economic aspects --- Medical economics --- Medical savings accounts --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Health Policy --- Demography --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Health: Government Policy --- Regulation --- Health: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Public finance & taxation --- Health systems & services --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Population & demography --- Health care spending --- Health care --- Social security contributions --- Aging --- Expenditure --- Taxes --- Population and demographics --- Expenditures, Public --- Social security --- Population aging --- Taiwan Province of China
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Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium.
Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Housing --- Econometric models. --- Prices --- Affordable housing --- Homes --- Houses --- Housing needs --- Residences --- Slum clearance --- Urban housing --- Social aspects --- City planning --- Dwellings --- Human settlements --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Infrastructure --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Property & real estate --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Housing prices --- Asset bubbles --- Saving and investment --- Financial crises --- Canada
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This paper investigates the role of government intervention in achieving the American dream of homeownership. The study analyzes the role of tax deductions in housing finance, including their impact on homeownership and housing consumption. The role of the Government Sponsored Enterprises in facilitating the creation of a secondary market for mortgage-backed securities is also analyzed as well as the role of the Federal Housing Administration. Cross-country comparisons of how housing is financed in other industrial countries is also provided, emphasizing how other countries have been able to achieve comparable homeownership rates as the United States in a less complicated and fiscally cheaper system. Country experiences of successfully phasing out government intervention are also analyzed.
Home ownership --- Housing --- Taxation --- Finance. --- Infrastructure --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Production Analysis and Firm Location: Government Policies --- Regulatory Policies --- Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, and Grants --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Property & real estate --- Public finance & taxation --- Housing prices --- Tax allowances --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Prices --- Taxes --- Saving and investment --- Income tax --- United States
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This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is excessive compared to long-term trends; (ii) trends in house prices reflect changes in economic fundamentals; and (iii) the extent to which household and banking sector vulnerabilities could lead to potential fragilities. Although data limitations hamper a rigorous analysis of trends, our analysis suggests that while there are no imminent misalignments in the real estate and mortgage sectors, they could emerge if current trends persist. Strengthening supervision and addressing data gaps is thus critical to ensure adequate monitoring of risks and vulnerabilities in these sectors.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- Banking --- Mortgage loans --- Housing --- Prices --- Home loans --- Mortgage lending --- Real estate loans --- Affordable housing --- Homes --- Houses --- Housing needs --- Residences --- Slum clearance --- Urban housing --- Social aspects --- Loans --- Secondary mortgage market --- City planning --- Dwellings --- Human settlements --- Mortgages --- E-books --- Hypothecation --- Real obligations --- Securities --- Security (Law) --- Conveyancing --- Liens --- Priorities of claims and liens --- Law and legislation --- Infrastructure --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Real Estate Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Property & real estate --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Housing prices --- Credit --- Credit booms --- Financial institutions --- Money --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- Colombia
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