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Riding global financial waves
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ISBN: 1475566786 1475505361 1475570066 1475574002 9781475566789 9781475505368 9781475574005 9781475505368 9781475574005 9781475570069 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/188 Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

Over the past two decades, most emerging market economies witnessed two key developments. A marked process of financial integration with the rest of the world, arguably turning these economies more vulnerable to global financial shocks; and an improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals, helping to increase their resiliency to these shocks. Against a backdrop of these opposing forces, are these economies more vulnerable to global financial shocks today than in the past? Have better fundamentals offset increasing financial integration? If so, what fundamentals matter most? We address these questions by examining the role of these two forces over the past two decades in amplifying or buffering the economic impact of these shocks. Our findings show that EMEs, with the exception of Emerging Europe, have become less vulnerable. Exchange rate flexibility and external sustainability are key determinants of the impact of these shocks, while the extent to which deeper financial integration is a source of vulnerability depends on the exchange rate regime.

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