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This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Trinidad and Tobago to assess the effects of trade liberalization and terms-of-trade shocks on the real exchange rate and the overall fiscal position of the government. The model is also used to evaluate the implications of alternative tax policies designed to offset the increase in the budget deficit of the central government that results from both types of external sector shocks.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Real exchange rates --- Trade liberalization --- Imports --- Value-added tax --- Tariffs --- International trade --- Taxes --- Commercial policy --- Spendings tax --- Tariff --- Trinidad and Tobago
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This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain assumptions, the extra burden from a marginal change in the homecountry tariff is shared equally between the home and foreign country at a tariff rate equal to twice the optimal tariff for the home country. Also, the cumulative welfare effect of a tariff in the home country, relative to free trade, turns out to be equalized across countries when the home tariff equals four times its optimal tariff. The paper provides an application of these results and points policymakers to the types of data that are relevant if they want to negotiate over "burden sharing.".
Taxation --- Tariffs --- Econometric models. --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Trade liberalization --- Personal income --- Exports --- Agricultural commodities --- Tariff --- Commercial policy --- Income --- Farm produce --- United States
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This paper uses an applied general equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade and technology-related variables on wages of skilled and unskilled labor between 1982 and 1996 in the United States. The results indicate that trade-related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. Also, changes in total factor productivity had a small effect on relative wages. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill-biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of the effect of trade on wages by calculating what wage rates would be under autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it. The welfare costs to the U.S economy of moving to autarky (using 1996 as a base) are about 6 percent of GDP.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Professional Labor Markets --- Occupational Licensing --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Wages --- Skilled labor --- Unskilled labor --- Wage adjustments --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase in the cost of food for many net-food- importing countries, although the increase is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalize.
Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: General --- Commodity Markets --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Price incentives --- Tariffs --- Imports --- Agricultural commodities --- Commodities --- Prices --- Taxes --- International trade --- Tariff --- Farm produce --- Commercial products --- United States
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The current round of multilateral trade negotiations-the Doha Round-presents an opportunity for countries to reap the benefits of trade liberalization. Unfortunately, a number of misconceptions about the likely impact of trade reforms has, in part, impeded more rapid progress toward completion of the Round. This paper addresses some of the most egregious of these misconceptions and presents results from IMF research that sheds light on these issues. In particular, this paper argues that: (i) developing countries have much to gain from their own trade liberalization; (ii) preference erosion could be significant for some countries, but it is not a justification for postponing tariff reductions; (iii) tariffs applied against agricultural products in rich countries actually harm developing countries more than subsidies; and (iv) a disproportionate share of agricultural subsidies in rich countries goes to large wealthy farmers.
Tariff --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Exports --- Imports --- Personal income --- Export subsidies --- Taxes --- International trade --- National accounts --- Income --- United States
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This paper discusses five indicators of competitiveness: real exchange rates based on consumer price indices, export unit values of manufacturing goods, the relative price of traded to nontraded goods, normalized unit labor costs in manufacturing, and the ratio of normalized unit labor costs to value-added deflators in manufacturing. It discusses how each of these measures is associated with changes in a country’s balance of trade in goods and nonfactor services and examines the relationship among these indicators. It then examines the empirical performance of three of the indicators in terms of their ability to explain trade flows.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Consumer price indexes --- Real exchange rates --- Labor costs --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exports --- Prices --- International trade --- Price indexes --- United States --- Income economics
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In recent years, many countries have successfully reduced their inflation rates to relatively low levels of 2 to 3 percent. The question then arises as to whether it would be desirable to move to even lower rates of inflation. The paper examines the benefits and costs of moving from low inflation to even lower inflation by drawing together recent work on this issue. Once a country has decided to move to an even lower rate of inflation, the question then becomes whether it would be better to achieve this objective through inflation targeting or price-level targeting. The paper critically reviews the arguments for both approaches.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Inflation targeting --- Wage adjustments --- Sticky prices --- Real interest rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Price stabilization --- Wages --- Interest rates --- United States --- Income economics
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The U.S. tax code contains two provisions that encourage exports by reducing the U.S. corporate income tax on export profits. An applied general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy is used to estimate the trade and welfare consequences of eliminating both tax provisions. We find that the provisions ameliorate the trade-discouraging effects of U.S. tariffs, but they also adversely affect the U.S. terms of trade to such an extent that eliminating them is likely to improve U.S. domestic welfare. While it is possible to find a “equivalent” tariff rate that replicates the effects on trade flows of removing the tax provisions, the welfare effects of a tariff differ importantly because a tariff interacts differently than the tax provisions with other distortions in the model.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Tariffs --- Exports --- Terms of trade --- Imports --- Consumption --- Taxes --- International trade --- National accounts --- Tariff --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Economics --- United States --- Nternational cooperation
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International trade theory has pointed out that factor accumulation could immiserize a country if it is sufficiently biased toward the export sector, or if it is biased toward an importcompeting sector in the presence of tariff protection. This paper analyzes the impact of aid, in the form of an increase in the capital stock used only in the nontraded sector, on real income. Yano and Nugent (1999) discussed this issue, but their analysis turned out to be incorrect. This paper demonstrates that whether aid in the form of an increase in capital specific to the nontraded sector reduces welfare depends on how aid affects the price of the nontraded good and on whether imports and the nontraded good are substitutes or complements in demand.
Economic assistance. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- International economic relations. --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Labor Economics: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Imports --- Tariffs --- Labor --- Factor models --- Tariff --- Labor economics --- Prices --- Econometric models --- Income economics
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This paper points out that while many developing countries seek to increase their export earnings, they have not embraced fully the notion that their own pattern of import protection hurts their export performance. The paper quantifies the extent to which import protection acts as a tax on a country's export sector and finds that for many developing countries, the magnitude of the implicit tax is substantial-about 12 percent, on average, for the countries studied. The paper also illustrates the effects of various tariff-cutting scenarios in the Doha Round on export incentives and concludes that, in general, developing countries could increase their export earnings by reducing their own import tariffs, but countries must be careful about how these tariff reductions are achieved. For example, tariff-cutting schemes that exempt certain sectors could actually be harmful.
Foreign trade regulation. --- Imports. --- Exports. --- International trade --- Export and import controls --- Foreign trade control --- Foreign trade regulation --- Import and export controls --- International trade control --- International trade regulation --- Prohibited exports and imports --- Trade regulation --- Law and legislation --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Exports --- Imports --- Trade barriers --- Export prices --- Taxes --- Prices --- Tariff --- Commercial policy --- Sri Lanka
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