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Book
External Shocks, the Real Exchange Rate, and Tax Policy
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ISBN: 1462315658 1455262625 1281214752 1455210048 9786613777676 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Trinidad and Tobago to assess the effects of trade liberalization and terms-of-trade shocks on the real exchange rate and the overall fiscal position of the government. The model is also used to evaluate the implications of alternative tax policies designed to offset the increase in the budget deficit of the central government that results from both types of external sector shocks.


Book
What Do We Know About Tariff Incidence?
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ISBN: 1462314538 1452791554 1282010808 9786613795809 1451904657 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain assumptions, the extra burden from a marginal change in the homecountry tariff is shared equally between the home and foreign country at a tariff rate equal to twice the optimal tariff for the home country. Also, the cumulative welfare effect of a tariff in the home country, relative to free trade, turns out to be equalized across countries when the home tariff equals four times its optimal tariff. The paper provides an application of these results and points policymakers to the types of data that are relevant if they want to negotiate over "burden sharing.".


Book
Quantifying the Impact of Tradeon Wages : The Role of Nontraded Goods
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ISBN: 1462313523 1452739080 1282107828 9786613801173 1451905084 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses an applied general equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade and technology-related variables on wages of skilled and unskilled labor between 1982 and 1996 in the United States. The results indicate that trade-related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. Also, changes in total factor productivity had a small effect on relative wages. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill-biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of the effect of trade on wages by calculating what wage rates would be under autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it. The welfare costs to the U.S economy of moving to autarky (using 1996 as a base) are about 6 percent of GDP.


Book
Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium
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ISBN: 1462378188 1452722994 128210828X 9786613801630 1451898894 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase in the cost of food for many net-food- importing countries, although the increase is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalize.


Book
Trade Issues in the Doha Round : Dispelling Some Misconceptions
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ISBN: 1455255939 1455296201 1451946163 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The current round of multilateral trade negotiations-the Doha Round-presents an opportunity for countries to reap the benefits of trade liberalization. Unfortunately, a number of misconceptions about the likely impact of trade reforms has, in part, impeded more rapid progress toward completion of the Round. This paper addresses some of the most egregious of these misconceptions and presents results from IMF research that sheds light on these issues. In particular, this paper argues that: (i) developing countries have much to gain from their own trade liberalization; (ii) preference erosion could be significant for some countries, but it is not a justification for postponing tariff reductions; (iii) tariffs applied against agricultural products in rich countries actually harm developing countries more than subsidies; and (iv) a disproportionate share of agricultural subsidies in rich countries goes to large wealthy farmers.


Book
Competitiveness Indicators : A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462390420 1455227250 1281155632 9786613776990 1455244309 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses five indicators of competitiveness: real exchange rates based on consumer price indices, export unit values of manufacturing goods, the relative price of traded to nontraded goods, normalized unit labor costs in manufacturing, and the ratio of normalized unit labor costs to value-added deflators in manufacturing. It discusses how each of these measures is associated with changes in a country’s balance of trade in goods and nonfactor services and examines the relationship among these indicators. It then examines the empirical performance of three of the indicators in terms of their ability to explain trade flows.


Book
Considerations in Reducing Inflation From Low to Lower Levels
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462310575 1452724008 1282027603 9786613796561 1451898762 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In recent years, many countries have successfully reduced their inflation rates to relatively low levels of 2 to 3 percent. The question then arises as to whether it would be desirable to move to even lower rates of inflation. The paper examines the benefits and costs of moving from low inflation to even lower inflation by drawing together recent work on this issue. Once a country has decided to move to an even lower rate of inflation, the question then becomes whether it would be better to achieve this objective through inflation targeting or price-level targeting. The paper critically reviews the arguments for both approaches.


Book
The Trade and Welfare Consequences of U.S. Export-Enhancing Tax Provisions
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462365167 1455203068 1281387215 145529375X 9786613779939 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The U.S. tax code contains two provisions that encourage exports by reducing the U.S. corporate income tax on export profits. An applied general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy is used to estimate the trade and welfare consequences of eliminating both tax provisions. We find that the provisions ameliorate the trade-discouraging effects of U.S. tariffs, but they also adversely affect the U.S. terms of trade to such an extent that eliminating them is likely to improve U.S. domestic welfare. While it is possible to find a “equivalent” tariff rate that replicates the effects on trade flows of removing the tax provisions, the welfare effects of a tariff differ importantly because a tariff interacts differently than the tax provisions with other distortions in the model.


Book
Immiserizing Foreign Aid : The Roles of Tariffs and Nontraded Goods
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451863896 1462337694 1451992300 9786613824677 1452759227 128351222X Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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International trade theory has pointed out that factor accumulation could immiserize a country if it is sufficiently biased toward the export sector, or if it is biased toward an importcompeting sector in the presence of tariff protection. This paper analyzes the impact of aid, in the form of an increase in the capital stock used only in the nontraded sector, on real income. Yano and Nugent (1999) discussed this issue, but their analysis turned out to be incorrect. This paper demonstrates that whether aid in the form of an increase in capital specific to the nontraded sector reduces welfare depends on how aid affects the price of the nontraded good and on whether imports and the nontraded good are substitutes or complements in demand.


Book
Does Import Protection Discourage Exports?
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ISBN: 146230138X 128239195X 9786613820389 1451908164 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper points out that while many developing countries seek to increase their export earnings, they have not embraced fully the notion that their own pattern of import protection hurts their export performance. The paper quantifies the extent to which import protection acts as a tax on a country's export sector and finds that for many developing countries, the magnitude of the implicit tax is substantial-about 12 percent, on average, for the countries studied. The paper also illustrates the effects of various tariff-cutting scenarios in the Doha Round on export incentives and concludes that, in general, developing countries could increase their export earnings by reducing their own import tariffs, but countries must be careful about how these tariff reductions are achieved. For example, tariff-cutting schemes that exempt certain sectors could actually be harmful.

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