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Relatively little is known about youth unemployment and its lasting consequences in transition economies, despite the difficult labor market adjustment experienced by these countries over the past decade. The authors examine early unemployment spells and their longer-term effects among the youth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), where the labor market transition is made more difficult by the challenges of a post-conflict environment. They use panel data covering up to 4,800 working-age individuals over the 2001 to 2004 period. There are three main findings from their analysis. First, youth unemployment is high-about twice the national average-consistent with recent findings from the BiH labor market study. Younger workers are more likely to go into inactivity or unemployment and are also less likely to transition out of inactivity, holding other things constant. Second, initial spells of unemployment or joblessness appear to have lasting adverse effects on earnings and employment ("scarring"). But there is no evidence that the youth are at a greater risk of scarring, or suffer disproportionately worse outcomes from initial joblessness, compared with other age groups. Third, higher educational attainment is generally associated with more favorable labor market outcomes. Skilled workers are less likely to be jobless and are less likely to transition from employment into joblessness. But there is evidence that the penalty from jobless spells may also be higher for more educated workers. The authors speculate that this may be due in part to signaling or stigma, consistent with previous findings in the literature.

Age Groups --- Average Unemployment --- Educational Attainment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Survey --- Labor --- Labor Force --- Labor Market --- Labor Market Adjustment --- Labor Market Experiences --- Labor Market Outcomes --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- National Unemployment --- National Unemployment Rate --- Population Policies --- Skilled Workers --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployed --- Unemployment Spells --- Younger Workers --- Youth and Government --- Youth Unemployment --- Youth Unemployment Rate --- Youth Unemployment Rates

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This paper takes stock of labor market developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period 2001-2004, using the panel Living Standards Measurement Study/Living in Bosnia and Herzegovina survey. The analysis estimates a multinomial logit model of labor market transitions by state of origin (employment, unemployment, and inactivity) following the specification of widely used models of transition probabilities, and analyzes the impact of standard covariates. The results provide strong evidence that there are indeed significant differences in labor market transitions by gender, age, education, and geographic location. Using the panel structure of the multi-topic survey data, the authors find that these transitions are related to welfare dynamics, with welfare levels evolving differently for various groups depending on their labor market trajectories. The findings show that current labor market trends reflecting women's movement out of labor markets and laid-off male workers accepting informal sector jobs characterized by low productivity will lead to adverse social outcomes. These outcomes could be averted if the planned enterprise reform program creates a more favorable business environment and leads to faster restructuring and growth of firms.

Displaced Workers --- Employment --- Informal Sector --- Jobs --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Local Labor Markets --- Male Workers --- Private Sector --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment

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This paper takes stock of labor market developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period 2001-2004, using the panel Living Standards Measurement Study/Living in Bosnia and Herzegovina survey. The analysis estimates a multinomial logit model of labor market transitions by state of origin (employment, unemployment, and inactivity) following the specification of widely used models of transition probabilities, and analyzes the impact of standard covariates. The results provide strong evidence that there are indeed significant differences in labor market transitions by gender, age, education, and geographic location. Using the panel structure of the multi-topic survey data, the authors find that these transitions are related to welfare dynamics, with welfare levels evolving differently for various groups depending on their labor market trajectories. The findings show that current labor market trends reflecting women's movement out of labor markets and laid-off male workers accepting informal sector jobs characterized by low productivity will lead to adverse social outcomes. These outcomes could be averted if the planned enterprise reform program creates a more favorable business environment and leads to faster restructuring and growth of firms.

Displaced Workers --- Employment --- Informal Sector --- Jobs --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Local Labor Markets --- Male Workers --- Private Sector --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment

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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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This paper revisits the early empirical literature on economic growth in transition economies, with particular focus on fiscal policy variables-fiscal balance and the size of government. The baseline model uses a parsimonious specification, drawn from Fischer and Sahay (2000), of economic growth as a function of initial conditions, stabilization, liberalization, and structural reform. The paper expands the data used in previous analyses by up to 10 years and finds unambiguous evidence that fiscal balance matters for growth, while confirming other previous findings on the correlates of economic growth in transition economies. In addition, the paper extends the baseline model and explores potential sources of nonlinearities in the relationship between growth and public finance. A key finding is that determinants of growth may vary in relative importance, depending on the underlying institutional quality. The evidence indicates that there could be higher growth payoffs from macroeconomic stability and public expenditure in countries characterized by relatively better public sector governance as measured by relevant indicators. In addition, the size of government matters for growth in a nonlinear manner: Beyond indicative thresholds of expenditure levels, public spending has a negative impact, while at levels below the threshold, there is no measurable impact on economic growth.

Economic growth --- Fiscal balance --- Fiscal policy --- Governance --- Governance Indicators --- Macroeconomic stability --- National Governance --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Public expenditure --- Public Finance --- Public sector --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management --- Size of government --- Structural reform --- Transition Economies