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The crisis threatens the welfare of about 160 million people in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region who are poor or are just above the poverty line. Using pre-crisis household data along with aggregate macroeconomic outturns to simulate the impact of the crisis on households-transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks-this report finds that adverse effects are widespread and that poor and non-poor households alike are vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, some 11 million more people will likely be in poverty and over 23 million more people will find the

Households --- Cost and standard of living --- -Households --- -Cost and standard of living --- -339.420947 --- Comfort, Standard of --- Cost of living --- Food, Cost of --- Household expenses --- Living, Cost of --- Living, Standard of --- Standard of living --- Consumption (Economics) --- Home economics --- Quality of life --- Wealth --- Luxury --- Prices --- Purchasing power --- Wages --- Population --- Families --- Economic aspects --- -Electronic information resources. --- Electronic information resources --- Surveys --- Asia, Central --- Europe, Eastern --- East Europe --- Eastern Europe --- Central Asia --- Soviet Central Asia --- Tūrān --- Turkestan --- West Turkestan --- Asia --- Economic conditions --- E-books

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Relatively little is known about youth unemployment and its lasting consequences in transition economies, despite the difficult labor market adjustment experienced by these countries over the past decade. The authors examine early unemployment spells and their longer-term effects among the youth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), where the labor market transition is made more difficult by the challenges of a post-conflict environment. They use panel data covering up to 4,800 working-age individuals over the 2001 to 2004 period. There are three main findings from their analysis. First, youth unemployment is high-about twice the national average-consistent with recent findings from the BiH labor market study. Younger workers are more likely to go into inactivity or unemployment and are also less likely to transition out of inactivity, holding other things constant. Second, initial spells of unemployment or joblessness appear to have lasting adverse effects on earnings and employment ("scarring"). But there is no evidence that the youth are at a greater risk of scarring, or suffer disproportionately worse outcomes from initial joblessness, compared with other age groups. Third, higher educational attainment is generally associated with more favorable labor market outcomes. Skilled workers are less likely to be jobless and are less likely to transition from employment into joblessness. But there is evidence that the penalty from jobless spells may also be higher for more educated workers. The authors speculate that this may be due in part to signaling or stigma, consistent with previous findings in the literature.

Age Groups --- Average Unemployment --- Educational Attainment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Survey --- Labor --- Labor Force --- Labor Market --- Labor Market Adjustment --- Labor Market Experiences --- Labor Market Outcomes --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- National Unemployment --- National Unemployment Rate --- Population Policies --- Skilled Workers --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployed --- Unemployment Spells --- Younger Workers --- Youth and Government --- Youth Unemployment --- Youth Unemployment Rate --- Youth Unemployment Rates

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This paper takes stock of labor market developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period 2001-2004, using the panel Living Standards Measurement Study/Living in Bosnia and Herzegovina survey. The analysis estimates a multinomial logit model of labor market transitions by state of origin (employment, unemployment, and inactivity) following the specification of widely used models of transition probabilities, and analyzes the impact of standard covariates. The results provide strong evidence that there are indeed significant differences in labor market transitions by gender, age, education, and geographic location. Using the panel structure of the multi-topic survey data, the authors find that these transitions are related to welfare dynamics, with welfare levels evolving differently for various groups depending on their labor market trajectories. The findings show that current labor market trends reflecting women's movement out of labor markets and laid-off male workers accepting informal sector jobs characterized by low productivity will lead to adverse social outcomes. These outcomes could be averted if the planned enterprise reform program creates a more favorable business environment and leads to faster restructuring and growth of firms.

Displaced Workers --- Employment --- Informal Sector --- Jobs --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Local Labor Markets --- Male Workers --- Private Sector --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment

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This paper takes stock of labor market developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period 2001-2004, using the panel Living Standards Measurement Study/Living in Bosnia and Herzegovina survey. The analysis estimates a multinomial logit model of labor market transitions by state of origin (employment, unemployment, and inactivity) following the specification of widely used models of transition probabilities, and analyzes the impact of standard covariates. The results provide strong evidence that there are indeed significant differences in labor market transitions by gender, age, education, and geographic location. Using the panel structure of the multi-topic survey data, the authors find that these transitions are related to welfare dynamics, with welfare levels evolving differently for various groups depending on their labor market trajectories. The findings show that current labor market trends reflecting women's movement out of labor markets and laid-off male workers accepting informal sector jobs characterized by low productivity will lead to adverse social outcomes. These outcomes could be averted if the planned enterprise reform program creates a more favorable business environment and leads to faster restructuring and growth of firms.

Displaced Workers --- Employment --- Informal Sector --- Jobs --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Local Labor Markets --- Male Workers --- Private Sector --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment

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Government intervention to correct market failures is often accompanied by government failures and corruption. This is no more evident than in social sectors that are characterized by significant market failures and government intervention. However, the impact of corruption on the public provision of social services has not been analyzed. This paper reviews the relevant theoretical models and users’ perceptions of corruption in the public provision of social services. It then provides evidence that reducing corruption can result in significant social gains as measured by decreases in child and infant mortality rates, percent of low-birthweight babies, and primary school dropout rates.

Labor --- Health Policy --- Criminology --- National Government Expenditures and Health --- National Government Expenditures and Education --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- Education: General --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Health: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Education --- Health systems & services --- Health economics --- Civil service & public sector --- Health care --- Health --- Civil service --- Crime --- Medical care --- India