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Book
Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

Aging of populations and convergence between developed and developing countries in per capita incomes are shaping the evolution of saving, investment, capital flows, and, in particular, the cost of capital. When considering these trends, the existing literature argues for either continued, low interest rates, or sharply rising ones. This paper presents an alternative view: modest rises in interest rates, which result from a combination of increases in the global weight of high-saving developing economies (limiting declines in global saving), and decelerations in the rate of growth in developing countries (constraining upward pressure in global investment). For the majority of countries, slowing capital demand resulting from decelerating growth, coupled with structural changes that influence its attractiveness as a destination for capital, moderate increases in interest rates. Changes in key assumptions do not alter this view. More specifically, the small rise in interest rates persists even in a scenario where growth in developing countries decelerates more slowly, or when elasticities governing the behavior of saving and investment are varied.


Book
Sovereign Ratings in the Post-Crisis World : An Analysis of Actual, Shadow and Relative Risk Ratings
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, whereas it deteriorated in crisis-affected high-income countries such as Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Egypt. Interestingly, India, Jordan, Poland, and the United Kingdom had their rating outlook downgraded by the rating agencies, but their relative rating actually improved as other countries suffered even worse downgrades. A regression model is used to analyze the relative contributions of different variables to rating changes during 2008-2012, a helpful feature for policy makers interested in improving sovereign ratings.


Digital
Global economic prospects 2002 : making trade work for the world's poor
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 0821349961 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. The World Bank

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Abstract

Realizing the promise of the new global initiatives to expand trade requires concerted effort to move development to center stage in trade policy formulation. This report is dedicated to that agenda. It begins with a review of global prospects and ways globalization links the fates of industrial and developing countries. The report then considers issues in four broad areas that are particularly important to developing countries: merchandise trade, services, transport, and intellectual property rights. A final chapter summarizes the forward-looking policy agenda, and assesses the potential impact of further global integration and more rapid growth for the standards of living in poor countries everywhere.


Book
Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper "stress tests" African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.


Book
Global Economic Prospects 2002 : Making Trade Work for the World's Poor
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 0821349961 9786610087327 1280087323 0585477493 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Realizing the promise of the new global initiatives to expand trade requires concerted effort to move development to center stage in trade policy formulation. This report is dedicated to that agenda. It begins with a review of global prospects and ways globalization links the fates of industrial and developing countries. The report then considers issues in four broad areas that are particularly important to developing countries: merchandise trade, services, transport, and intellectual property rights. A final chapter summarizes the forward-looking policy agenda, and assesses the potential impact of further global integration and more rapid growth for the standards of living in poor countries everywhere.

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