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Urban stormwater management is a growing challenge in many U.S. cities. Continued population growth, urbanization, and inadequate investment in storm- and wastewater infrastructure have left many cities exposed to sewer overflows, stormwater flooding, and reduced water quality. Climate change is expected to add to this challenge by increasing the intensity or volume of rainfall from storms in many regions. There is also a growing acknowledgment that these vulnerabilities are environmental justice and equity challenges, as flooding and other negative outcomes disproportionately affect low-income or majority-minority neighborhoods. Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed is a prime example of these stormwater management challenges, draining a diverse area of Pittsburgh's East End, including neighborhoods that have suffered heavily from underinvestment. It also represents an urgent flood-risk challenge in the city, as heavy rainfall in the area leads to regular flooding of a key road corridor. In this project, RAND researchers use simulation modeling to evaluate present and future risks in Negley Run from sewer overflows and flooding given future rainfall uncertainty. The authors then evaluate proposals for a phased series of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) investments. In addition to estimating stormwater benefits and implementation costs, the authors provide economic estimates of recreational, amenity, and other cobenefits to local residents; compare total benefits to costs; and explore potential trade-offs. Results show that a centralized system of stormwater management in Negley Run could yield cost-effective sewer-overflow reduction, reduce street flooding, and provide positive net economic benefits across a range of assumptions about future rainfall and implementation costs.
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The authors assembled novel datasets of publicly tracked common vulnerabilities and exposures, estimated vulnerability operational times, and collected software update cadence data to explore potential trends across a variety of software product categories. Altogether, the data were used to quantify uncertainties related to cost and operational time of software vulnerabilities and update a cost model to estimate life-cycle costs of the U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons (JCW) program. A cost-estimating framework developed in prior research—which captured demand requirements for cyber capabilities (CCs), uncertainties surrounding vulnerability decay rates and weapon development costs, variable adversary defense capabilities, and time phasing of acquisitions into service—was updated with the new data assembled in this report. Potential investment portfolios were then explored.
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To establish an evidence-based foundation for the congressionally required short- and long-term recovery and resilience plan for Puerto Rico following the 2017 hurricanes, the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center assessed the damage from the 2017 hurricane season and remaining needs across the commonwealth in collaboration with federal agencies, the government of Puerto Rico, and other stakeholders. The experts examined what happened during and after Hurricanes Irma and Maria but also how the effects of the hurricanes exacerbated and were exacerbated by predisaster challenges and stressors. This report provides a comprehensive summary of the commonwealth's challenges and status before and after the storms hit, including their effects on Puerto Rico's people and communities; economy; built and natural environments; and education, health, and social services. Before the hurricanes, Puerto Rico faced an economic crisis, a shrinking, aging population, substandard public education, poverty, poor housing stock, governance challenges, neglect of infrastructure and resources, and environmental degradation. Hurricane Maria's direct and devastating landfall on Puerto Rico in September 2017 only exacerbated these challenges. The research team identified short- and longer-term needs for Puerto Rico's recovery and resilience. In the short term, Puerto Rico needs to repair damaged critical infrastructure; improve governance and fiscal accountability; update emergency-preparedness plans; clearly delineate responsibility for infrastructure, assets, and services; and repair damaged and destroyed homes. In the longer term, Puerto Rico will need to systematically address its economic challenges; scale its social services and infrastructure systems for current and future populations; reinforce its infrastructure against natural hazards and build it to modern standards; reduce building-permit and code-enforcement breaches; report timely and accurate data on its economic and fiscal status; and gather further knowledge to inform long-term resilience decisions.
Hurricane damage --- Hurricane Irma, 2017. --- Hurricane Maria, 2017. --- Puerto Rico.
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Because of the long timelines and significant cost traditionally associated with acquiring weapon systems for the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), analyses are constantly being conducted to find ways to streamline acquisition and reduce cost. Considering findings from various analyses on acquisition along with direction from Congress, DoD created the Adaptive Acquisition Framework (AAF) to improve the timeliness and affordability of acquisition programs. Marine Corps leadership decided that the AAF's Software Acquisition Pathway (SWP) would provide the best path for the Joint Cyber Weapon (JCW) program as it progresses through its acquisition life cycle. Marine Corps Systems Command requested that the RAND Corporation assist in documenting JCW program acquisition plans. Specifically, RAND researchers were asked to assist the JCW program office in refining key acquisition artifacts required for submission during the planning phase of the SWP. This satisfied a condition for the program to enter the execution phase of the SWP to provide rapid cyber operations capabilities to the warfighter. Drawing on their experience with assisting with the JCW artifacts, the authors discuss several lessons learned and recommend that programs can effectively navigate the SWP by prioritizing the acquisition artifact schedule, ensuring early and ongoing stakeholder communication, tailoring artifacts to meet program needs, and resourcing the program effectively to accomplish these tasks. This research builds on prior RAND research from fiscal year 2021 that brought together data on operational capability, scheduling, and uncertainty to develop a life-cycle cost-estimating framework for the Marine Corps' JCW program.
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Some U.S. communities, such as low-income or minority communities, are disproportionately affected by the impact of disasters. Distribution of both mitigation funding and recovery funding has not been equitably applied to all communities, with disadvantaged communities receiving less of both funds. Weather and climate disasters continued to escalate in 2021, resulting in billions of dollars in disaster costs and hundreds of fatalities in the United States. Predisaster mitigation is meant to lessen the damaging effects of future storms — thereby reducing the losses to both infrastructure and communities. The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grant program aims to help communities undertake predisaster mitigation to reduce natural hazard risk. In response to an executive order to address inequitable funding systems that impede progress toward community resilience, an explicit guiding principle of BRIC is to promote social equity and help members of disadvantaged groups. To track progress toward equitable outcomes, BRIC is in the process of developing equity evaluation methods. In this report, the authors describe the development of an equity action-logic model and example metrics. The relationship of community characteristics to participation and success in BRIC's first competitive cycle (fiscal year 2020) is examined. Recommendations address (1) how the BRIC program could evolve to track social equity outcomes in a meaningful way; (2) the value of integrated data sets and analytic methods for understanding the characteristics of communities that are applying for BRIC funding and those that are successful; and (3) the barriers disadvantaged communities face when applying for BRIC funding.
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U.S. Marine Corps Systems Command asked the RAND Corporation to assess the Marine Corps offensive cyber operations acquisition life cycle and identify ways to improve the transparency of related decisionmaking. The authors brought together data on operational capability, scheduling, and risk to develop a life-cycle cost-estimating framework. This framework should help Joint Cyber Weapons (JCW) program leadership understand the potential costs and provide additional guidance on budgeting considerations. It incorporates five classes of inputs and has three types of outputs. In creating the framework, the authors considered the demand for exploits from the operational user, as well as the type of cyber weapon (e.g., exploit, implant, payload), the weapon's target environment (e.g., desktop or mobile systems), vulnerability decay rate, the adversary's defense capabilities, weapon cost, and how various acquisitions are phased in and out of service over time. The framework also addresses the production of cyber weapons, their costs, and how uncertainties are distributed over a specified period. The authors conducted exploratory modeling and simulation to better understand associated uncertainties and model inputs.
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Some communities, such as low-income or minority communities, are disproportionately affected by the impact of disasters, in part because they have fewer financial resources available to prepare for or recover from damages to property or livelihoods. The federal government has established several grant programs — such as the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) hazard mitigation grant program — that provide funding to support mitigation before a disaster and recovery after a disaster hits. However, distribution of both mitigation and recovery funding has not been equitably applied to all communities, with underserved communities receiving less of both. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) engaged the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC), a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) operated by the RAND Corporation for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, to help explore how the BRIC hazard mitigation grant program is addressing social equity considerations. This report provides an initial methodology for how BRIC can assess the program's social equity performance. It also identifies community characteristics and natural hazard risks related to participation and success of subapplications in the first year of the BRIC grant cycle (fiscal year 2020).
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